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Evidence-Based Policy Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The past years have seen seen the development and deployment of machine-learning algorithms to estimate personalized treatment-assignment policies from randomized controlled trials. Yet such algorithms for the assignment of treatment typically optimize expected outcomes without taking into account that treatment assignments are frequently subject to hypothesis testing. In this article, we explicitly take significance testing of the effect of treatment-assignment policies into account, and consider assignments that optimize the probability of finding a subset of individuals with a statistically significant positive treatment effect. We provide an efficient implementation using decision trees, and demonstrate its gain over selecting subsets based on positive (estimated) treatment effects. Compared to standard tree-based regression and classification tools, this approach tends to yield substantially higher power in detecting subgroups with positive treatment effects. INTRODUCTION Recent years have seen the development of machine-learning algorithms that estimate heterogeneous causal effects from randomized controlled trials. While the estimation of average effects - for example, how effective a vaccine is overall, whether a conditional cash transfer reduces poverty, or which ad leads to more clicks - can inform the decision whether to deploy a treatment or not, heterogeneous treatment effect estimation allows us to decide who should get treated. These algorithms aim to maximize realized outcomes, and thus focus on assigning treatment to individuals with positive (estimated) treatment effects. Yet in practice, the deployment of assignment policies often only happens after passing a test that the assignment produces a positive net effect relative to some status quo. For example, a drug manufacturer may have to demonstrate that the drug is effective on the target population by submitting a hypothesis test to the FDA for approval.


Interleaving Learning, with Application to Neural Architecture Search

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Interleaving learning is a human learning technique where a learner interleaves the studies of multiple topics, which increases long-term retention and improves ability to transfer learned knowledge. Inspired by the interleaving learning technique of humans, in this paper we explore whether this learning methodology is beneficial for improving the performance of machine learning models as well. We propose a novel machine learning framework referred to as interleaving learning (IL). In our framework, a set of models collaboratively learn a data encoder in an interleaving fashion: the encoder is trained by model 1 for a while, then passed to model 2 for further training, then model 3, and so on; after trained by all models, the encoder returns back to model 1 and is trained again, then moving to model 2, 3, etc. This process repeats for multiple rounds. Our framework is based on multi-level optimization consisting of multiple inter-connected learning stages. An efficient gradient-based algorithm is developed to solve the multi-level optimization problem. We apply interleaving learning to search neural architectures for image classification on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and ImageNet. The effectiveness of our method is strongly demonstrated by the experimental results.


Exact and heuristic approaches for multi-objective garbage accumulation points location in real scenarios

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Municipal solid waste management is a major challenge for nowadays urban societies, because it accounts for a large proportion of public budget and, when mishandled, it can lead to environmental and social problems. This work focuses on the problem of locating waste bins in an urban area, which is considered to have a strong influence in the overall efficiency of the reverse logistic chain. This article contributes with an exact multiobjective approach to solve the waste bin location in which the optimization criteria that are considered are: the accessibility to the system (as quality of service measure), the investment cost, and the required frequency of waste removal from the bins (as a proxy of the posterior routing costs). In this approach, different methods to obtain the objectives ideal and nadir values over the Pareto front are proposed and compared. Then, a family of heuristic methods based on the PageRank algorithm is proposed which aims to optimize the accessibility to the system, the amount of collected waste and the installation cost. The experimental evaluation was performed on real-world scenarios of the cities of Montevideo, Uruguay, and Bah\'ia Blanca, Argentina. The obtained results show the competitiveness of the proposed approaches for constructing a set of candidate solutions that considers the different trade-offs between the optimization criteria.


Semi-Discrete Optimal Transport: Hardness, Regularization and Numerical Solution

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Semi-discrete optimal transport problems, which evaluate the Wasserstein distance between a discrete and a generic (possibly non-discrete) probability measure, are believed to be computationally hard. Even though such problems are ubiquitous in statistics, machine learning and computer vision, however, this perception has not yet received a theoretical justification. To fill this gap, we prove that computing the Wasserstein distance between a discrete probability measure supported on two points and the Lebesgue measure on the standard hypercube is already #P-hard. This insight prompts us to seek approximate solutions for semi-discrete optimal transport problems. We thus perturb the underlying transportation cost with an additive disturbance governed by an ambiguous probability distribution, and we introduce a distributionally robust dual optimal transport problem whose objective function is smoothed with the most adverse disturbance distributions from within a given ambiguity set. We further show that smoothing the dual objective function is equivalent to regularizing the primal objective function, and we identify several ambiguity sets that give rise to several known and new regularization schemes. As a byproduct, we discover an intimate relation between semi-discrete optimal transport problems and discrete choice models traditionally studied in psychology and economics. To solve the regularized optimal transport problems efficiently, we use a stochastic gradient descent algorithm with imprecise stochastic gradient oracles. A new convergence analysis reveals that this algorithm improves the best known convergence guarantee for semi-discrete optimal transport problems with entropic regularizers.


Quantum machine learning with differential privacy

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Quantum machine learning (QML) can complement the growing trend of using learned models for a myriad of classification tasks, from image recognition to natural speech processing. A quantum advantage arises due to the intractability of quantum operations on a classical computer. Many datasets used in machine learning are crowd sourced or contain some private information. To the best of our knowledge, no current QML models are equipped with privacy-preserving features, which raises concerns as it is paramount that models do not expose sensitive information. Thus, privacy-preserving algorithms need to be implemented with QML. One solution is to make the machine learning algorithm differentially private, meaning the effect of a single data point on the training dataset is minimized. Differentially private machine learning models have been investigated, but differential privacy has yet to be studied in the context of QML. In this study, we develop a hybrid quantum-classical model that is trained to preserve privacy using differentially private optimization algorithm. This marks the first proof-of-principle demonstration of privacy-preserving QML. The experiments demonstrate that differentially private QML can protect user-sensitive information without diminishing model accuracy. Although the quantum model is simulated and tested on a classical computer, it demonstrates potential to be efficiently implemented on near-term quantum devices (noisy intermediate-scale quantum [NISQ]). The approach's success is illustrated via the classification of spatially classed two-dimensional datasets and a binary MNIST classification. This implementation of privacy-preserving QML will ensure confidentiality and accurate learning on NISQ technology.


Efficient Algorithms for Global Inference in Internet Marketplaces

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Matching demand to supply in internet marketplaces (e-commerce, ride-sharing, food delivery, professional services, advertising) is a global inference problem that can be formulated as a Linear Program (LP) with (millions of) coupling constraints and (up to a billion) non-coupling polytope constraints. Until recently, solving such problems on web-scale data with an LP formulation was intractable. Recent work (Basu et al., 2020) developed a dual decomposition-based approach to solve such problems when the polytope constraints are simple. In this work, we motivate the need to go beyond these simple polytopes and show real-world internet marketplaces that require more complex structured polytope constraints. We expand on the recent literature with novel algorithms that are more broadly applicable to global inference problems. We derive an efficient incremental algorithm using a theoretical insight on the nature of solutions on the polytopes to project onto any arbitrary polytope, that shows massive improvements in performance. Using better optimization routines along with an adaptive algorithm to control the smoothness of the objective, improves the speed of the solution even further. We showcase the efficacy of our approach via experimental results on web-scale marketplace data.


Combining Gaussian processes and polynomial chaos expansions for stochastic nonlinear model predictive control

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Model predictive control is an advanced control approach for multivariable systems with constraints, which is reliant on an accurate dynamic model. Most real dynamic models are however affected by uncertainties, which can lead to closed-loop performance deterioration and constraint violations. In this paper we introduce a new algorithm to explicitly consider time-invariant stochastic uncertainties in optimal control problems. The difficulty of propagating stochastic variables through nonlinear functions is dealt with by combining Gaussian processes with polynomial chaos expansions. The main novelty in this paper is to use this combination in an efficient fashion to obtain mean and variance estimates of nonlinear transformations. Using this algorithm, it is shown how to formulate both chance-constraints and a probabilistic objective for the optimal control problem. On a batch reactor case study we firstly verify the ability of the new approach to accurately approximate the probability distributions required. Secondly, a tractable stochastic nonlinear model predictive control approach is formulated with an economic objective to demonstrate the closed-loop performance of the method via Monte Carlo simulations.


A Two-stage Framework and Reinforcement Learning-based Optimization Algorithms for Complex Scheduling Problems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

There hardly exists a general solver that is efficient for scheduling problems due to their diversity and complexity. In this study, we develop a two-stage framework, in which reinforcement learning (RL) and traditional operations research (OR) algorithms are combined together to efficiently deal with complex scheduling problems. The scheduling problem is solved in two stages, including a finite Markov decision process (MDP) and a mixed-integer programming process, respectively. This offers a novel and general paradigm that combines RL with OR approaches to solving scheduling problems, which leverages the respective strengths of RL and OR: The MDP narrows down the search space of the original problem through an RL method, while the mixed-integer programming process is settled by an OR algorithm. These two stages are performed iteratively and interactively until the termination criterion has been met. Under this idea, two implementation versions of the combination methods of RL and OR are put forward. The agile Earth observation satellite scheduling problem is selected as an example to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed scheduling framework and methods. The convergence and generalization capability of the methods are verified by the performance of training scenarios, while the efficiency and accuracy are tested in 50 untrained scenarios. The results show that the proposed algorithms could stably and efficiently obtain satisfactory scheduling schemes for agile Earth observation satellite scheduling problems. In addition, it can be found that RL-based optimization algorithms have stronger scalability than non-learning algorithms. This work reveals the advantage of combining reinforcement learning methods with heuristic methods or mathematical programming methods for solving complex combinatorial optimization problems.


Analyzing Human Models that Adapt Online

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Predictive human models often need to adapt their parameters online from human data. This raises previously ignored safety-related questions for robots relying on these models such as what the model could learn online and how quickly could it learn it. For instance, when will the robot have a confident estimate in a nearby human's goal? Or, what parameter initializations guarantee that the robot can learn the human's preferences in a finite number of observations? To answer such analysis questions, our key idea is to model the robot's learning algorithm as a dynamical system where the state is the current model parameter estimate and the control is the human data the robot observes. This enables us to leverage tools from reachability analysis and optimal control to compute the set of hypotheses the robot could learn in finite time, as well as the worst and best-case time it takes to learn them. We demonstrate the utility of our analysis tool in four human-robot domains, including autonomous driving and indoor navigation.


Constrained Learning with Non-Convex Losses

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Though learning has become a core technology of modern information processing, there is now ample evidence that it can lead to biased, unsafe, and prejudiced solutions. The need to impose requirements on learning is therefore paramount, especially as it reaches critical applications in social, industrial, and medical domains. However, the non-convexity of most modern learning problems is only exacerbated by the introduction of constraints. Whereas good unconstrained solutions can often be learned using empirical risk minimization (ERM), even obtaining a model that satisfies statistical constraints can be challenging, all the more so a good one. In this paper, we overcome this issue by learning in the empirical dual domain, where constrained statistical learning problems become unconstrained, finite dimensional, and deterministic. We analyze the generalization properties of this approach by bounding the empirical duality gap, i.e., the difference between our approximate, tractable solution and the solution of the original (non-convex)~statistical problem, and provide a practical constrained learning algorithm. These results establish a constrained counterpart of classical learning theory and enable the explicit use of constraints in learning. We illustrate this algorithm and theory in rate-constrained learning applications.