Accurate and interpretable prediction of survey response rates is important from an operational standpoint. The US Census Bureau's well-known ROAM application uses principled statistical models trained on the US Census Planning Database data to identify hard-to-survey areas. An earlier crowdsourcing competition revealed that an ensemble of regression trees led to the best performance in predicting survey response rates; however, the corresponding models could not be adopted for the intended application due to limited interpretability. In this paper, we present new interpretable statistical methods to predict, with high accuracy, response rates in surveys. We study sparse nonparametric additive models with pairwise interactions via $\ell_0$-regularization, as well as hierarchically structured variants that provide enhanced interpretability. Despite strong methodological underpinnings, such models can be computationally challenging -- we present new scalable algorithms for learning these models. We also establish novel non-asymptotic error bounds for the proposed estimators. Experiments based on the US Census Planning Database demonstrate that our methods lead to high-quality predictive models that permit actionable interpretability for different segments of the population. Interestingly, our methods provide significant gains in interpretability without losing in predictive performance to state-of-the-art black-box machine learning methods based on gradient boosting and feedforward neural networks. Our code implementation in python is available at https://github.com/ShibalIbrahim/Additive-Models-with-Structured-Interactions.

This work concentrates on optimization on Riemannian manifolds. The Limited-memory Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (LBFGS) algorithm is a commonly used quasi-Newton method for numerical optimization in Euclidean spaces. Riemannian LBFGS (RLBFGS) is an extension of this method to Riemannian manifolds. RLBFGS involves computationally expensive vector transports as well as unfolding recursions using adjoint vector transports. In this article, we propose two mappings in the tangent space using the inverse second root and Cholesky decomposition. These mappings make both vector transport and adjoint vector transport identity and therefore isometric. Identity vector transport makes RLBFGS less computationally expensive and its isometry is also very useful in convergence analysis of RLBFGS. Moreover, under the proposed mappings, the Riemannian metric reduces to Euclidean inner product, which is much less computationally expensive. We focus on the Symmetric Positive Definite (SPD) manifolds which are beneficial in various fields such as data science and statistics. This work opens a research opportunity for extension of the proposed mappings to other well-known manifolds.

In a recent joint work, the author has developed a modification of Newton's method, named New Q-Newton's method, which can avoid saddle points and has quadratic rate of convergence. While good theoretical convergence guarantee has not been established for this method, experiments on small scale problems show that the method works very competitively against other well known modifications of Newton's method such as Adaptive Cubic Regularization and BFGS, as well as first order methods such as Unbounded Two-way Backtracking Gradient Descent. In this paper, we resolve the convergence guarantee issue by proposing a modification of New Q-Newton's method, named New Q-Newton's method Backtracking, which incorporates a more sophisticated use of hyperparameters and a Backtracking line search. This new method has very good theoretical guarantees, which for a {\bf Morse function} yields the following (which is unknown for New Q-Newton's method): {\bf Theorem.} Let $f:\mathbb{R}^m\rightarrow \mathbb{R}$ be a Morse function, that is all its critical points have invertible Hessian. Then for a sequence $\{x_n\}$ constructed by New Q-Newton's method Backtracking from a random initial point $x_0$, we have the following two alternatives: i) $\lim _{n\rightarrow\infty}||x_n||=\infty$, or ii) $\{x_n\}$ converges to a point $x_{\infty}$ which is a {\bf local minimum} of $f$, and the rate of convergence is {\bf quadratic}. Moreover, if $f$ has compact sublevels, then only case ii) happens. As far as we know, for Morse functions, this is the best theoretical guarantee for iterative optimization algorithms so far in the literature. We have tested in experiments on small scale, with some further simplified versions of New Q-Newton's method Backtracking, and found that the new method significantly improve New Q-Newton's method.

Social science studies dealing with control in networks typically resort to heuristics or describing the static control distribution. Optimal policies, however, require interventions that optimize control over a socioeconomic network subject to real-world constraints. We integrate optimisation tools from deep-learning with network science into a framework that is able to optimize such interventions in real-world networks. We demonstrate the framework in the context of corporate control, where it allows to characterize the vulnerability of strategically important corporate networks to sensitive takeovers, an important contemporaneous policy challenge. The framework produces insights that are relevant for governing real-world socioeconomic networks, and opens up new research avenues for improving our understanding and control of such complex systems.

A structured variable selection problem is considered in which the covariates, divided into predefined groups, activate according to sparse patterns with few nonzero entries per group. Capitalizing on the concept of atomic norm, a composite norm can be properly designed to promote such exclusive group sparsity patterns. The resulting norm lends itself to efficient and flexible regularized optimization algorithms for support recovery, like the proximal algorithm. Moreover, an active set algorithm is proposed that builds the solution by successively including structure atoms into the estimated support. It is also shown that such an algorithm can be tailored to match more rigid structures than plain exclusive group sparsity. Asymptotic consistency analysis (with both the number of parameters as well as the number of groups growing with the observation size) establishes the effectiveness of the proposed solution in terms of signed support recovery under conventional assumptions.

The increasing size of data generated by smartphones and IoT devices motivated the development of Federated Learning (FL), a framework for on-device collaborative training of machine learning models. First efforts in FL focused on learning a single global model with good average performance across clients, but the global model may be arbitrarily bad for a given client, due to the inherent heterogeneity of local data distributions. Federated multi-task learning (MTL) approaches can learn personalized models by formulating an opportune penalized optimization problem. The penalization term can capture complex relations among personalized models, but eschews clear statistical assumptions about local data distributions. In this work, we propose to study federated MTL under the flexible assumption that each local data distribution is a mixture of unknown underlying distributions. This assumption encompasses most of the existing personalized FL approaches and leads to federated EM-like algorithms for both client-server and fully decentralized settings. Moreover, it provides a principled way to serve personalized models to clients not seen at training time. The algorithms' convergence is analyzed through a novel federated surrogate optimization framework, which can be of general interest. Experimental results on FL benchmarks show that in most cases our approach provides models with higher accuracy and fairness than state-of-the-art methods.

Multivariate time series (MTS) prediction plays a key role in many fields such as finance, energy and transport, where each individual time series corresponds to the data collected from a certain data source, so-called channel. A typical pipeline of building an MTS prediction model (PM) consists of selecting a subset of channels among all available ones, extracting features from the selected channels, and building a PM based on the extracted features, where each component involves certain optimization tasks, i.e., selection of channels, feature extraction (FE) methods, and PMs as well as configuration of the selected FE method and PM. Accordingly, pursuing the best prediction performance corresponds to optimizing the pipeline by solving all of its involved optimization problems. This is a non-trivial task due to the vastness of the solution space. Different from most of the existing works which target at optimizing certain components of the pipeline, we propose a novel evolutionary ensemble learning framework to optimize the entire pipeline in a holistic manner. In this framework, a specific pipeline is encoded as a candidate solution and a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm is applied under different population sizes to produce multiple Pareto optimal sets (POSs). Finally, selective ensemble learning is designed to choose the optimal subset of solutions from the POSs and combine them to yield final prediction by using greedy sequential selection and least square methods. We implement the proposed framework and evaluate our implementation on two real-world applications, i.e., electricity consumption prediction and air quality prediction. The performance comparison with state-of-the-art techniques demonstrates the superiority of the proposed approach.

In this paper, we propose a convex formulation for learning logistic regression model (logit) with latent heterogeneous effect on sub-population. In transportation, logistic regression and its variants are often interpreted as discrete choice models under utility theory (McFadden, 2001). Two prominent applications of logit models in the transportation domain are traffic accident analysis and choice modeling. In these applications, researchers often want to understand and capture the individual variation under the same accident or choice scenario. The mixed effect logistic regression (mixed logit) is a popular model employed by transportation researchers. To estimate the distribution of mixed logit parameters, a non-convex optimization problem with nested high-dimensional integrals needs to be solved. Simulation-based optimization is typically applied to solve the mixed logit parameter estimation problem. Despite its popularity, the mixed logit approach for learning individual heterogeneity has several downsides. First, the parametric form of the distribution requires domain knowledge and assumptions imposed by users, although this issue can be addressed to some extent by using a non-parametric approach. Second, the optimization problems arise from parameter estimation for mixed logit and the non-parametric extensions are non-convex, which leads to unstable model interpretation. Third, the simulation size in simulation-assisted estimation lacks finite-sample theoretical guarantees and is chosen somewhat arbitrarily in practice. To address these issues, we are motivated to develop a formulation that models the latent individual heterogeneity while preserving convexity, and avoids the need for simulation-based approximation. Our setup is based on decomposing the parameters into a sparse homogeneous component in the population and low-rank heterogeneous parts for each individual.

Consider the sequential optimization of a continuous, possibly non-convex, and expensive to evaluate objective function $f$. The problem can be cast as a Gaussian Process (GP) bandit where $f$ lives in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). The state of the art analysis of several learning algorithms shows a significant gap between the lower and upper bounds on the simple regret performance. When $N$ is the number of exploration trials and $\gamma_N$ is the maximal information gain, we prove an $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{\gamma_N/N})$ bound on the simple regret performance of a pure exploration algorithm that is significantly tighter than the existing bounds. We show that this bound is order optimal up to logarithmic factors for the cases where a lower bound on regret is known. To establish these results, we prove novel and sharp confidence intervals for GP models applicable to RKHS elements which may be of broader interest.

This technical note reviews sate-of-the-art algorithms for linear approximation of high-dimensional dynamical systems using low-rank dynamic mode decomposition (DMD). While repeating several parts of our article "low-rank dynamic mode decomposition: an exact and tractable solution", this work provides additional details useful for building a comprehensive picture of state-of-the-art methods.