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Method and Validation for Optimal Lineup Creation for Daily Fantasy Football Using Machine Learning and Linear Programming

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Daily fantasy sports (DFS) are weekly or daily online contests where real-game performances of individual players are converted to fantasy points (FPTS). Users select players for their lineup to maximize their FPTS within a set player salary cap. This paper focuses on (1) the development of a method to forecast NFL player performance under uncertainty and (2) determining an optimal lineup to maximize FPTS under a set salary limit. A supervised learning neural network was created and used to project FPTS based on past player performance (2018 NFL regular season for this work) prior to the upcoming week. These projected FPTS were used in a mixed integer linear program to find the optimal lineup. The performance of resultant lineups was compared to randomly-created lineups. On average, the optimal lineups outperformed the random lineups. The generated lineups were then compared to real-world lineups from users on DraftKings. The generated lineups generally fell in approximately the 31st percentile (median). The FPTS methods and predictions presented here can be further improved using this study as a baseline comparison.


Leximin Approximation: From Single-Objective to Multi-Objective

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Leximin is a common approach to multi-objective optimization, frequently employed in fair division applications. In leximin optimization, one first aims to maximize the smallest objective value; subject to this, one maximizes the second-smallest objective; and so on. Often, even the single-objective problem of maximizing the smallest value cannot be solved accurately. What can we hope to accomplish for leximin optimization in this situation? Recently, Henzinger et al. (2022) defined a notion of \emph{approximate} leximin optimality. Their definition, however, considers only an additive approximation. In this work, we first define the notion of approximate leximin optimality, allowing both multiplicative and additive errors. We then show how to compute, in polynomial time, such an approximate leximin solution, using an oracle that finds an approximation to a single-objective problem. The approximation factors of the algorithms are closely related: an $(\alpha,\epsilon)$-approximation for the single-objective problem (where $\alpha \in (0,1]$ and $\epsilon \geq 0$ are the multiplicative and additive factors respectively) translates into an $\left(\frac{\alpha^2}{1-\alpha + \alpha^2}, \frac{\epsilon}{1-\alpha +\alpha^2}\right)$-approximation for the multi-objective leximin problem, regardless of the number of objectives.


BQ-NCO: Bisimulation Quotienting for Efficient Neural Combinatorial Optimization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Despite the success of neural-based combinatorial optimization methods for end-to-end heuristic learning, out-of-distribution generalization remains a challenge. In this paper, we present a novel formulation of Combinatorial Optimization Problems (COPs) as Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) that effectively leverages common symmetries of COPs to improve out-of-distribution robustness. Starting from a direct MDP formulation of a constructive method, we introduce a generic way to reduce the state space, based on Bisimulation Quotienting (BQ) in MDPs. Then, for COPs with a recursive nature, we specialize the bisimulation and show how the reduced state exploits the symmetries of these problems and facilitates MDP solving. Our approach is principled and we prove that an optimal policy for the proposed BQ-MDP actually solves the associated COPs. We illustrate our approach on five classical problems: the Euclidean and Asymmetric Traveling Salesman, Capacitated Vehicle Routing, Orienteering and Knapsack Problems. Furthermore, for each problem, we introduce a simple attention-based policy network for the BQ-MDPs, which we train by imitation of (near) optimal solutions of small instances from a single distribution. We obtain new state-of-the-art results for the five COPs on both synthetic and realistic benchmarks. Notably, in contrast to most existing neural approaches, our learned policies show excellent generalization performance to much larger instances than seen during training, without any additional search procedure.


Active SLAM: A Review On Last Decade

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This article presents a comprehensive review of the Active Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (A-SLAM) research conducted over the past decade. It explores the formulation, applications, and methodologies employed in A-SLAM, particularly in trajectory generation and control-action selection, drawing on concepts from Information Theory (IT) and the Theory of Optimal Experimental Design (TOED). This review includes both qualitative and quantitative analyses of various approaches, deployment scenarios, configurations, path-planning methods, and utility functions within A-SLAM research. Furthermore, this article introduces a novel analysis of Active Collaborative SLAM (AC-SLAM), focusing on collaborative aspects within SLAM systems. It includes a thorough examination of collaborative parameters and approaches, supported by both qualitative and statistical assessments. This study also identifies limitations in the existing literature and suggests potential avenues for future research. This survey serves as a valuable resource for researchers seeking insights into A-SLAM methods and techniques, offering a current overview of A-SLAM formulation.


Transfer Learning for Bayesian Optimization on Heterogeneous Search Spaces

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a popular black-box function optimization method, which makes sequential decisions based on a Bayesian model, typically a Gaussian process (GP), of the function. To ensure the quality of the model, transfer learning approaches have been developed to automatically design GP priors by learning from observations on "training" functions. These training functions are typically required to have the same domain as the "test" function (black-box function to be optimized). In this paper, we introduce MPHD, a model pre-training method on heterogeneous domains, which uses a neural net mapping from domain-specific contexts to specifications of hierarchical GPs. MPHD can be seamlessly integrated with BO to transfer knowledge across heterogeneous search spaces. Our theoretical and empirical results demonstrate the validity of MPHD and its superior performance on challenging black-box function optimization tasks.


Horospherical Decision Boundaries for Large Margin Classification in Hyperbolic Space

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Hyperbolic spaces have been quite popular in the recent past for representing hierarchically organized data. Further, several classification algorithms for data in these spaces have been proposed in the literature. These algorithms mainly use either hyperplanes or geodesics for decision boundaries in a large margin classifiers setting leading to a non-convex optimization problem. In this paper, we propose a novel large margin classifier based on horospherical decision boundaries that leads to a geodesically convex optimization problem that can be optimized using any Riemannian gradient descent technique guaranteeing a globally optimal solution.


HyperBO+: Pre-training a universal prior for Bayesian optimization with hierarchical Gaussian processes

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Bayesian optimization (BO), while proved highly effective for many black-box function optimization tasks, requires practitioners to carefully select priors that well model their functions of interest. Rather than specifying by hand, researchers have investigated transfer learning based methods to automatically learn the priors, e.g. multi-task BO (Swersky et al., 2013), few-shot BO (Wistuba and Grabocka, 2021) and HyperBO (Wang et al., 2022). However, those prior learning methods typically assume that the input domains are the same for all tasks, weakening their ability to use observations on functions with different domains or generalize the learned priors to BO on different search spaces. In this work, we present HyperBO+: a pre-training approach for hierarchical Gaussian processes that enables the same prior to work universally for Bayesian optimization on functions with different domains. We propose a two-step pre-training method and analyze its appealing asymptotic properties and benefits to BO both theoretically and empirically. On real-world hyperparameter tuning tasks that involve multiple search spaces, we demonstrate that HyperBO+ is able to generalize to unseen search spaces and achieves lower regrets than competitive baselines.


A Unified Perspective on Multiple Shooting In Differential Dynamic Programming

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Differential Dynamic Programming (DDP) is an efficient computational tool for solving nonlinear optimal control problems. It was originally designed as a single shooting method and thus is sensitive to the initial guess supplied. This work considers the extension of DDP to multiple shooting (MS), improving its robustness to initial guesses. A novel derivation is proposed that accounts for the defect between shooting segments during the DDP backward pass, while still maintaining quadratic convergence locally. The derivation enables unifying multiple previous MS algorithms, and opens the door to many smaller algorithmic improvements. A penalty method is introduced to strategically control the step size, further improving the convergence performance. An adaptive merit function and a more reliable acceptance condition are employed for globalization. The effects of these improvements are benchmarked for trajectory optimization with a quadrotor, an acrobot, and a manipulator. MS-DDP is also demonstrated for use in Model Predictive Control (MPC) for dynamic jumping with a quadruped robot, showing its benefits over a single shooting approach.


Vertical Federated Learning: Concepts, Advances and Challenges

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Federated Learning (FL) [1] is a novel machine learning paradigm where multiple parties collaboratively build machine learning models without centralizing their data. The concept of FL was first proposed by Google in 2016 [2] to describe a cross-device scenario where millions of mobile devices are coordinated by a central server while local data are not transferred. This concept is soon extended to a cross-silo collaboration scenario among organizations [3], where a small number of reliable organizations join a federation to train a machine learning model. In [3], FL is, for the first time, categorized into three categories based on how data is partitioned in the sample and feature space: Horizontal Federated Learning (HFL), Vertical Federated Learning (VFL) and Federated Transfer Learning (FTL) (See Figure 1). HFL refers to the FL setting where participants share the same feature space while holding different samples. For example, Google uses HFL to allow mobile phone users to use their dataset to collaboratively train a next-word prediction model [2]. VFL refers to the FL setting where datasets share the same samples/users while holding different features. For example, Webank uses VFL to collaborate with an invoice agency to build financial risk models for their enterprise customers [4].


Fair Canonical Correlation Analysis

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper investigates fairness and bias in Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA), a widely used statistical technique for examining the relationship between two sets of variables. We present a framework that alleviates unfairness by minimizing the correlation disparity error associated with protected attributes. Our approach enables CCA to learn global projection matrices from all data points while ensuring that these matrices yield comparable correlation levels to group-specific projection matrices. Experimental evaluation on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrates the efficacy of our method in reducing correlation disparity error without compromising CCA accuracy.