In a classic result in the mechanism design literature, Cremerand McLean (1985) show that if buyers’ valuations are sufficiently correlated, a mechanism exists that allows the seller to extract the full surplus from efficient allocation as revenue. This result is commonly seen as “too good to be true” (in practice), casting doubt on its modeling assumptions. In this paper, we use an automated mechanism design approach to assess how sensitive the Cremer-McLean result is to relaxing its main technical assumption. That assumption implies that each valuation that a bidder can have results in a unique conditional distribution over the external signal(s). We relax this, allowing multiple valuations to be consistent with the same distribution over the external signal(s). Using similar insights to Cremer-McLean, we provide a highly efficient algorithm for computing the optimal revenue in this more general case. Using this algorithm, we observe that indeed, as the number of valuations consistent with a distribution grows, the optimal revenue quickly drops to that of a reserve-price mechanism. Thus, automated mechanism design allows us to gain insight into the precise sense in which Cremer-McLean is “too good to be true.”

When you lose a game of chess to a computer then don't pretend that you didn't think at the game.

Grid security and open markets are two major smart grid goals. Transparency of market data facilitates a competitive and efficient energy environment, yet it may also reveal critical physical system information. Recovering the grid topology based solely on publicly available market data is explored here. Real-time energy prices are calculated as the Lagrange multipliers of network-constrained economic dispatch; that is, via a linear program (LP) typically solved every 5 minutes. Granted the grid Laplacian is a parameter of this LP, one could infer such a topology-revealing matrix upon observing successive LP dual outcomes. The matrix of spatio-temporal prices is first shown to factor as the product of the inverse Laplacian times a sparse matrix. Leveraging results from sparse matrix decompositions, topology recovery schemes with complementary strengths are subsequently formulated. Solvers scalable to high-dimensional and streaming market data are devised. Numerical validation using real load data on the IEEE 30-bus grid provide useful input for current and future market designs.

This paper introduces a novel encoding of Model Based Diagnosis (MBD) to Boolean Satisfaction (SAT) focusing on minimal cardinality diagnosis. The encoding is based on a combination of sophisticated MBD preprocessing algorithms and the application of a SAT compiler which optimizes the encoding to provide more succinct CNF representations than obtained with previous works. Experimental evidence indicates that our approach is superior to all published algorithms for minimal cardinality MBD. In particular, we can determine, for the first time, minimal cardinality diagnoses for the entire standard ISCAS-85 and 74XXX benchmarks. Our results open the way to improve the state-of-the-art on a range of similar MBD problems.

We consider the task of grouping doctors with respect to communication patterns exhibited in outpatient visits. We propose a novel approach toward this end in which we model speech act transitions in conversations via a log-linear model incorporating physician specific components. We train this model over transcripts of outpatient visits annotated with speech act codes and then cluster physicians in (a transformation of) this parameter space. We find significant correlations between the induced groupings and patient survey response data comprising ratings of physician communication. Furthermore, the novel sequential component model we leverage to induce this clustering allows us to explore differences across these groups. This work demonstrates how statistical AI might be used to better understand (and ultimately improve) physician communication.

Mobile geo-location advertising, where mobile ads are targeted based on a user’s location, has been identified as a key growth factor for the mobile market. As with online advertising, a crucial ingredient for their success is the development of effective economic mechanisms. An important difference is that mobile ads are shown sequentially over time and information about the user can be learned based on their movements. Furthermore, ads need to be shown selectively to prevent ad fatigue. To this end, we introduce, for the first time, a user model and suitable economic mechanisms which take these factors into account. Specifically, we design two truthful mechanisms which produce an advertisement plan based on the user’s movements. One mechanism is allocatively efficient, but requires exponential compute time in the worst case. The other requires polynomial time, but is not allocatively efficient. Finally, we experimentally evaluate the trade off between compute time and efficiency of our mechanisms.

We study the problem where a task (or multiple unrelated tasks) must be executed, there are multiple machines/agents that can potentially perform the task, and our objective is to minimize the expected sum of the agents' processing times. Each agent does not know exactly how long it will take him to finish the task; he only knows the distribution from which this time is drawn. These times are independent across agents and the distributions fulfill the monotone hazard rate condition. Agents are selfish and will lie about their distributions if this increases their expected utility. We study different variations of the Vickrey mechanism that take as input the agents' reported distributions and the players' realized running times and that output a schedule that minimizes the expected sum of processing times, as well as payments that make it an ex-post equilibrium for the agents to both truthfully report their distributions and exert full effort to complete the task. We devise the ChPE mechanism, which is uniquely tailored to our problem, and has many desirable properties including: not rewarding agents that fail to finish the task and having non-negative payments.

We present a new approach to token-level causal reasoning that we call Sequences Of Mechanisms (SoMs), which models causality as a dynamic sequence of active mechanisms that chain together to propagate causal influence through time. We motivate this approach by using examples from AI and robotics and show why existing approaches are inadequate. We present an algorithm for causal reasoning based on SoMs, which takes as input a knowledge base of first-order mechanisms and a set of observations, and it hypothesizes which mechanisms are active at what time. We show empirically that our algorithm produces plausible causal explanations of simulated observations generated from a causal model. We argue that the SoMs approach is qualitatively closer to the human causal reasoning process, for example, it will only include relevant variables in explanations. We present new insights about causal reasoning that become apparent with this view. One such insight is that observation and manipulation do not commute in causal models, a fact which we show to be a generalization of the Equilibration-Manipulation Commutability of [Dash(2005)].

Graphical models have gained a lot of attention recently as a tool for learning and representing dependencies among variables in multivariate data. Often, domain scientists are looking specifically for differences among the dependency networks of different conditions or populations (e.g. differences between regulatory networks of different species, or differences between dependency networks of diseased versus healthy populations). The standard method for finding these differences is to learn the dependency networks for each condition independently and compare them. We show that this approach is prone to high false discovery rates (low precision) that can render the analysis useless. We then show that by imposing a bias towards learning similar dependency networks for each condition the false discovery rates can be reduced to acceptable levels, at the cost of finding a reduced number of differences. Algorithms developed in the transfer learning literature can be used to vary the strength of the imposed similarity bias and provide a natural mechanism to smoothly adjust this differential precision-recall tradeoff to cater to the requirements of the analysis conducted. We present real case studies (oncological and neurological) where domain experts use the proposed technique to extract useful differential networks that shed light on the biological processes involved in cancer and brain function.

This paper introduces the notion of objection-based causal networks which resemble probabilistic causal networks except that they are quantified using objections. An objection is a logical sentence and denotes a condition under which a, causal dependency does not exist. Objection-based causal networks enjoy almost all the properties that make probabilistic causal networks popular, with the added advantage that objections are, arguably more intuitive than probabilities.