This paper presents a physics-based data-driven method to learn predictive reduced-order models (ROMs) from high-fidelity simulations, and illustrates it in the challenging context of a single-injector combustion process. The method combines the perspectives of model reduction and machine learning. Model reduction brings in the physics of the problem, constraining the ROM predictions to lie on a subspace defined by the governing equations. This is achieved by defining the ROM in proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) coordinates, which embed the rich physics information contained in solution snapshots of a high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model. The machine learning perspective brings the flexibility to use transformed physical variables to define the POD basis. This is in contrast to traditional model reduction approaches that are constrained to use the physical variables of the high-fidelity code. Combining the two perspectives, the approach identifies a set of transformed physical variables that expose quadratic structure in the combustion governing equations and learns a quadratic ROM from transformed snapshot data. This learning does not require access to the high-fidelity model implementation. Numerical experiments show that the ROM accurately predicts temperature, pressure, velocity, species concentrations, and the limit-cycle amplitude, with speedups of more than five orders of magnitude over high-fidelity models. Moreover, ROM-predicted pressure traces accurately match the phase of the pressure signal and yield good approximations of the limit-cycle amplitude.

We propose a new graph kernel for graph classification and comparison using Ollivier Ricci curvature. The Ricci curvature of an edge in a graph describes the connectivity in the local neighborhood. An edge in a densely connected neighborhood has positive curvature and an edge serving as a local bridge has negative curvature. We use the edge curvature distribution to form a graph kernel which is then used to compare and cluster graphs. The curvature kernel uses purely the graph topology and thereby works for settings when node attributes are not available.

We extend two kinds of causal models, structural equation models and simulation models, to infinite variable spaces. This enables a semantics for conditionals founded on a calculus of intervention, and axiomatization of causal reasoning for rich, expressive generative models---including those in which a causal representation exists only implicitly---in an open-universe setting. Further, we show that under suitable restrictions the two kinds of models are equivalent, perhaps surprisingly as their axiomatizations differ substantially in the general case. We give a series of complete axiomatizations in which the open-universe nature of the setting is seen to be essential.

In-game win probability is a statistical metric that provides a sports team's likelihood of winning at any given point in a game, based on the performance of historical teams in the same situation. In-game win-probability models have been extensively studied in baseball, basketball and American football. These models serve as a tool to enhance the fan experience, evaluate in game-decision making and measure the risk-reward balance for coaching decisions. In contrast, they have received less attention in association football, because its low-scoring nature makes it far more challenging to analyze. In this paper, we build an in-game win probability model for football. Specifically, we first show that porting existing approaches, both in terms of the predictive models employed and the features considered, does not yield good in-game win-probability estimates for football. Second, we introduce our own Bayesian statistical model that utilizes a set of eight variables to predict the running win, tie and loss probabilities for the home team. We train our model using event data from the last four seasons of the major European football competitions. Our results indicate that our model provides well-calibrated probabilities. Finally, we elaborate on two use cases for our win probability metric: enhancing the fan experience and evaluating performance in crucial situations.

We consider a fixed-price mechanism design setting where a seller sells one item via a social network, but the seller can only directly communicate with her neighbours initially. Each other node in the network is a potential buyer with a valuation derived from a common distribution. With a standard fixed-price mechanism, the seller can only sell the item among her neighbours. To improve her revenue, she needs more buyers to join in the sale. To achieve this, we propose the very first fixed-price mechanism to incentivize the seller's neighbours to inform their neighbours about the sale and to eventually inform all buyers in the network to improve seller's revenue. Compared with the existing mechanisms for the same purpose, our mechanism does not require the buyers to reveal their valuations and it is computationally easy. More importantly, it guarantees that the improved revenue is at least 1/2 of the optimal.

There is an abundance of complex dynamic systems that are critical to our daily lives and our society but that are hardly understood, and even with today's possibilities to sense and collect large amounts of experimental data, they are so complex and continuously evolving that it is unlikely that their dynamics will ever be understood in full detail. Nevertheless, through computational tools we can try to make the best possible use of the current technologies and available data. We believe that the most useful models will have to take into account the imbalance between system complexity and available data in the context of limited knowledge or multiple hypotheses. The complex system of biological cells is a prime example of such a system that is studied in systems biology and has motivated the methods presented in this paper. They were developed as part of the DARPA Rapid Threat Assessment (RTA) program, which is concerned with understanding of the mechanism of action (MoA) of toxins or drugs affecting human cells. Using a combination of Gaussian processes and abstract network modeling, we present three fundamentally different machine-learning-based approaches to learn causal relations and synthesize causal networks from high-dimensional time series data. While other types of data are available and have been analyzed and integrated in our RTA work, we focus on transcriptomics (that is gene expression) data obtained from high-throughput microarray experiments in this paper to illustrate capabilities and limitations of our algorithms. Our algorithms make different but overall relatively few biological assumptions, so that they are applicable to other types of biological data and potentially even to other complex systems that exhibit high dimensionality but are not of biological nature.

We propose a new class of probabilistic neural-symbolic models, that have symbolic functional programs as a latent, stochastic variable. Instantiated in the context of visual question answering, our probabilistic formulation offers two key conceptual advantages over prior neural-symbolic models for VQA. Firstly, the programs generated by our model are more understandable while requiring lesser number of teaching examples. Secondly, we show that one can pose counterfactual scenarios to the model, to probe its beliefs on the programs that could lead to a specified answer given an image. Our results on the CLEVR and SHAPES datasets verify our hypotheses, showing that the model gets better program (and answer) prediction accuracy even in the low data regime, and allows one to probe the coherence and consistency of reasoning performed.

Abstract: Discovering and exploiting the causal structure in the environment is a crucial challenge for intelligent agents. Here we explore whether causal reasoning can emerge via meta-reinforcement learning. We train a recurrent network with model-free reinforcement learning to solve a range of problems that each contain causal structure. We find that the trained agent can perform causal reasoning in novel situations in order to obtain rewards. The agent can select informative interventions, draw causal inferences from observational data, and make counterfactual predictions.

Discovering and exploiting the causal structure in the environment is a crucial challenge for intelligent agents. Here we explore whether causal reasoning can emerge via meta-reinforcement learning. We train a recurrent network with model-free reinforcement learning to solve a range of problems that each contain causal structure. We find that the trained agent can perform causal reasoning in novel situations in order to obtain rewards. The agent can select informative interventions, draw causal inferences from observational data, and make counterfactual predictions. Although established formal causal reasoning algorithms also exist, in this paper we show that such reasoning can arise from model-free reinforcement learning, and suggest that causal reasoning in complex settings may benefit from the more end-to-end learning-based approaches presented here. This work also offers new strategies for structured exploration in reinforcement learning, by providing agents with the ability to perform -- and interpret -- experiments.

Actual causation is concerned with the question "what caused what?" Consider a transition between two states within a system of interacting elements, such as an artificial neural network, or a biological brain circuit. Which combination of synapses caused the neuron to fire? Which image features caused the classifier to misinterpret the picture? Even detailed knowledge of the system's causal network, its elements, their states, connectivity, and dynamics does not automatically provide a straightforward answer to the "what caused what?" question. Counterfactual accounts of actual causation based on graphical models, paired with system interventions, have demonstrated initial success in addressing specific problem cases in line with intuitive causal judgments. Here, we start from a set of basic requirements for causation (realization, composition, information, integration, and exclusion) and develop a rigorous, quantitative account of actual causation that is generally applicable to discrete dynamical systems. We present a formal framework to evaluate these causal requirements that is based on system interventions and partitions, and considers all counterfactuals of a state transition. This framework is used to provide a complete causal account of the transition by identifying and quantifying the strength of all actual causes and effects linking the two consecutive system states. Finally, we examine several exemplary cases and paradoxes of causation and show that they can be illuminated by the proposed framework for quantifying actual causation.