Physics-based character animation has seen significant advances in recent years with the adoption of Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL). However, DRL-based learning methods are usually computationally expensive and their performance crucially depends on the choice of hyperparameters. Tuning hyperparameters for these methods often requires repetitive training of control policies, which is even more computationally prohibitive. In this work, we propose a novel Curriculum-based Multi-Fidelity Bayesian Optimization framework (CMFBO) for efficient hyperparameter optimization of DRL-based character control systems. Using curriculum-based task difficulty as fidelity criterion, our method improves searching efficiency by gradually pruning search space through evaluation on easier motor skill tasks. We evaluate our method on two physics-based character control tasks: character morphology optimization and hyperparameter tuning of DeepMimic. Our algorithm significantly outperforms state-of-the-art hyperparameter optimization methods applicable for physics-based character animation. In particular, we show that hyperparameters optimized through our algorithm result in at least 5x efficiency gain comparing to author-released settings in DeepMimic.

Current modeling approaches for hydrological modeling often rely on either physics-based or data-science methods, including Machine Learning (ML) algorithms. While physics-based models tend to rigid structure resulting in unrealistic parameter values in certain instances, ML algorithms establish the input-output relationship while ignoring the constraints imposed by well-known physical processes. While there is a notion that the physics model enables better process understanding and ML algorithms exhibit better predictive skills, scientific knowledge that does not add to predictive ability may be deceptive. Hence, there is a need for a hybrid modeling approach to couple ML algorithms and physics-based models in a synergistic manner. Here we develop a Physics Informed Machine Learning (PIML) model that combines the process understanding of conceptual hydrological model with predictive abilities of state-of-the-art ML models. We apply the proposed model to predict the monthly time series of the target (streamflow) and intermediate variables (actual evapotranspiration) in the Narmada river basin in India. Our results show the capability of the PIML model to outperform a purely conceptual model ($abcd$ model) and ML algorithms while ensuring the physical consistency in outputs validated through water balance analysis. The systematic approach for combining conceptual model structure with ML algorithms could be used to improve the predictive accuracy of crucial hydrological processes important for flood risk assessment.

Since the depletion of fossil fuels, the world has started to rely heavily on renewable sources of energy. With every passing year, our dependency on the renewable sources of energy is increasing exponentially. As a result, complex and hybrid generation systems are being designed and developed to meet the energy demands and ensure energy security in a country. The continual improvement in the technology and an effort towards the provision of uninterrupted power to the end-users is strongly dependent on an effective and fault resilient Operation and Maintenance (O&M) system. Ingenious algorithms and techniques are hence been introduced aiming to minimize equipment and plant downtime. Efforts are being made to develop robust Prognostic Maintenance systems that can identify the faults before they occur. To this aim, complex Data Analytics and Machine Learning (ML) techniques are being used to increase the overall efficiency of these prognostic maintenance systems. This paper provides an overview of the predictive/prognostic maintenance frameworks reported in the literature. We pay a particular focus to the approaches, challenges including data-related issues, such as the availability and quality of the data and data auditing, feature engineering, interpretability, and security issues. Being a key aspect of ML-based solutions, we also discuss some of the commonly used publicly available datasets in the domain. The paper also identifies key future research directions. We believe such detailed analysis will provide a baseline for future research in the domain.

Brief Summary: The DOE SC program in Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) hereby announces its interest in research applications to explore potentially high-impact approaches in the development and use of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) for scientific insights from massive data generated by simulation, experiments, and observations. PROJECT DESCRIPTION (1 page) - please use an 11 point or higher font with one inch margins.

Computational multiscale methods for analyzing and deriving constitutive responses have been used as a tool in engineering problems because of their ability to combine information at different length scales. However, their application in a nonlinear framework can be limited by high computational costs, numerical difficulties, and/or inaccuracies. In this paper, a hybrid methodology is presented which combines classical constitutive laws (model-based), a data-driven correction component, and computational multiscale approaches. A model-based material representation is locally improved with data from lower scales obtained by means of a nonlinear numerical homogenization procedure leading to a model-data-driven approach. Therefore, macroscale simulations explicitly incorporate the true microscale response, maintaining the same level of accuracy that would be obtained with online micro-macro simulations but with a computational cost comparable to classical model-driven approaches. In the proposed approach, both model and data play a fundamental role allowing for the synergistic integration between a physics-based response and a machine learning black-box. Numerical applications are implemented in two dimensions for different tests investigating both material and structural responses in large deformation.

Ongoing standardization in Industry 4.0 supports tool vendor neutral representations of Piping and Instrumentation diagrams as well as 3D pipe routing. However, a complete digital plant model requires combining these two representations. 3D pipe routing information is essential for building any accurate first-principles process simulation model. Piping and instrumentation diagrams are the primary source for control loops. In order to automatically integrate these information sources to a unified digital plant model, it is necessary to develop algorithms for identifying corresponding elements such as tanks and pumps from piping and instrumentation diagrams and 3D CAD models. One approach is to raise these two information sources to a common level of abstraction and to match them at this level of abstraction. Graph matching is a potential technique for this purpose. This article focuses on automatic generation of the graphs as a prerequisite to graph matching. Algorithms for this purpose are proposed and validated with a case study. The paper concludes with a discussion of further research needed to reprocess the generated graphs in order to enable effective matching.

Causal induction, i.e., identifying unobservable mechanisms that lead to the observable relations among variables, has played a pivotal role in modern scientific discovery, especially in scenarios with only sparse and limited data. Humans, even young toddlers, can induce causal relationships surprisingly well in various settings despite its notorious difficulty. However, in contrast to the commonplace trait of human cognition is the lack of a diagnostic benchmark to measure causal induction for modern Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems. Therefore, in this work, we introduce the Abstract Causal REasoning (ACRE) dataset for systematic evaluation of current vision systems in causal induction. Motivated by the stream of research on causal discovery in Blicket experiments, we query a visual reasoning system with the following four types of questions in either an independent scenario or an interventional scenario: direct, indirect, screening-off, and backward-blocking, intentionally going beyond the simple strategy of inducing causal relationships by covariation. By analyzing visual reasoning architectures on this testbed, we notice that pure neural models tend towards an associative strategy under their chance-level performance, whereas neuro-symbolic combinations struggle in backward-blocking reasoning. These deficiencies call for future research in models with a more comprehensive capability of causal induction.

We present a framework for analysing agent incentives using causal influence diagrams. We establish that a well-known criterion for value of information is complete. We propose a new graphical criterion for value of control, establishing its soundness and completeness. We also introduce two new concepts for incentive analysis: response incentives indicate which changes in the environment affect an optimal decision, while instrumental control incentives establish whether an agent can influence its utility via a variable X. For both new concepts, we provide sound and complete graphical criteria. We show by example how these results can help with evaluating the safety and fairness of an AI system.

Decision makers often need to rely on imperfect Given these limitations, we study alternative mechanisms probabilistic forecasts. While average to convey confidence about individual predictions performance metrics are typically available, to decision-makers. it is difficult to assess the quality of individual forecasts and the corresponding utilities. To We consider settings where a single forecaster provides convey confidence about individual predictions predictions to many decision makers, each facing a potentially to decision-makers, we propose a compensation different decision making problem. For example, mechanism ensuring that the forecasted a personalized medicine service could predict utility matches the actually accrued whether a product is effective for thousands of individual utility. While a naive scheme to compensate patients [19, 20, 2]. If the prediction is accurate decision-makers for prediction errors can be for 70% of patients, it could be accurate for Alice exploited and might not be sustainable in the but not Bob, or vice-versa. Therefore, Alice might be long run, we propose a mechanism based on hesitant to make decisions based on the 70% average fair bets and online learning that provably accuracy. In this setting, we propose an insurance-like cannot be exploited. We demonstrate an application mechanism that 1) enables each decision maker to confidently showing how passengers could confidently make decisions as if the advertised probabilities optimize individual travel plans based were individually correct, and 2) is implementable on flight delay probabilities estimated by an by the forecaster with provably vanishing costs in the airline.

Probability trees are one of the simplest models of causal generative processes. They possess clean semantics and -- unlike causal Bayesian networks -- they can represent context-specific causal dependencies, which are necessary for e.g. causal induction. Yet, they have received little attention from the AI and ML community. Here we present concrete algorithms for causal reasoning in discrete probability trees that cover the entire causal hierarchy (association, intervention, and counterfactuals), and operate on arbitrary propositional and causal events. Our work expands the domain of causal reasoning to a very general class of discrete stochastic processes.