As control engineering methods are applied to increasingly complex systems, data-driven approaches for system identification appear as a promising alternative to physics-based modeling. While the Bayesian approaches prevalent for safety-critical applications usually rely on the availability of state measurements, the states of a complex system are often not directly measurable. It may then be necessary to jointly estimate the dynamics and the latent state, making the quantification of uncertainties and the design of controllers with formal performance guarantees considerably more challenging. This paper proposes a novel method for the computation of an optimal input trajectory for unknown nonlinear systems with latent states based on a combination of particle Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and scenario theory. Probabilistic performance guarantees are derived for the resulting input trajectory, and an approach to validate the performance of arbitrary control laws is presented. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated in a numerical simulation.

Fourier neural operators (FNOs) can learn highly nonlinear mappings between function spaces, and have recently become a popular tool for learning responses of complex physical systems. However, to achieve good accuracy and efficiency, FNOs rely on the Fast Fourier transform (FFT), which is restricted to modeling problems on rectangular domains. To lift such a restriction and permit FFT on irregular geometries as well as topology changes, we introduce domain agnostic Fourier neural operator (DAFNO), a novel neural operator architecture for learning surrogates with irregular geometries and evolving domains. The key idea is to incorporate a smoothed characteristic function in the integral layer architecture of FNOs, and leverage FFT to achieve rapid computations, in such a way that the geometric information is explicitly encoded in the architecture. In our empirical evaluation, DAFNO has achieved state-of-the-art accuracy as compared to baseline neural operator models on two benchmark datasets of material modeling and airfoil simulation. To further demonstrate the capability and generalizability of DAFNO in handling complex domains with topology changes, we consider a brittle material fracture evolution problem. With only one training crack simulation sample, DAFNO has achieved generalizability to unseen loading scenarios and substantially different crack patterns from the trained scenario.

Causal identification is at the core of the causal inference literature, where complete algorithms have been proposed to identify causal queries of interest. The validity of these algorithms hinges on the restrictive assumption of having access to a correctly specified causal structure. In this work, we study the setting where a probabilistic model of the causal structure is available. Specifically, the edges in a causal graph exist with uncertainties which may, for example, represent degree of belief from domain experts. Alternatively, the uncertainty about an edge may reflect the confidence of a particular statistical test. The question that naturally arises in this setting is: Given such a probabilistic graph and a specific causal effect of interest, what is the subgraph which has the highest plausibility and for which the causal effect is identifiable? We show that answering this question reduces to solving an NP-complete combinatorial optimization problem which we call the edge ID problem. We propose efficient algorithms to approximate this problem and evaluate them against both real-world networks and randomly generated graphs.

Transfer learning - i.e., further fine-tuning a pre-trained model on a downstream task - can confer significant advantages, including improved downstream performance, faster convergence, and better sample efficiency. These advantages have led to a proliferation of task-specific fine-tuned models, which typically can only perform a single task and do not benefit from one another. Recently, model merging techniques have emerged as a solution to combine multiple task-specific models into a single multitask model without performing additional training. However, existing merging methods often ignore the interference between parameters of different models, resulting in large performance drops when merging multiple models. In this paper, we demonstrate that prior merging techniques inadvertently lose valuable information due to two major sources of interference: (a) interference due to redundant parameter values and (b) disagreement on the sign of a given parameter's values across models. To address this, we propose our method, TRIM, ELECT SIGN & MERGE (TIES-Merging), which introduces three novel steps when merging models: (1) resetting parameters that only changed a small amount during fine-tuning, (2) resolving sign conflicts, and (3) merging only the parameters that are in alignment with the final agreed-upon sign. We find that TIES-Merging outperforms several existing methods in diverse settings covering a range of modalities, domains, number of tasks, model sizes, architectures, and fine-tuning settings. We further analyze the impact of different types of interference on model parameters, and highlight the importance of resolving sign interference. Our code is available at https://github.com/prateeky2806/ties-merging

We propose a method to track the 6D pose of an object over time, while the object is under non-prehensile manipulation by a robot. At any given time during the manipulation of the object, we assume access to the robot joint controls and an image from a camera. We use the robot joint controls to perform a physics-based prediction of how the object might be moving. We then combine this prediction with the observation coming from the camera, to estimate the object pose as accurately as possible. We use a particle filtering approach to combine the control information with the visual information. We compare the proposed method with two baselines: (i) using only an image-based pose estimation system at each time-step, and (ii) a particle filter which does not perform the computationally expensive physics predictions, but assumes the object moves with constant velocity. Our results show that making physics-based predictions is worth the computational cost, resulting in more accurate tracking, and estimating object pose even when the object is not clearly visible to the camera.

Accurate hydrological understanding and water cycle prediction are crucial for addressing scientific and societal challenges associated with the management of water resources, particularly under the dynamic influence of anthropogenic climate change. Existing reviews predominantly concentrate on the development of machine learning (ML) in this field, yet there is a clear distinction between hydrology and ML as separate paradigms. Here, we introduce physics-aware ML as a transformative approach to overcome the perceived barrier and revolutionize both fields. Specifically, we present a comprehensive review of the physics-aware ML methods, building a structured community (PaML) of existing methodologies that integrate prior physical knowledge or physics-based modeling into ML. We systematically analyze these PaML methodologies with respect to four aspects: physical data-guided ML, physics-informed ML, physics-embedded ML, and physics-aware hybrid learning. PaML facilitates ML-aided hypotheses, accelerating insights from big data and fostering scientific discoveries. We first conduct a systematic review of hydrology in PaML, including rainfall-runoff hydrological processes and hydrodynamic processes, and highlight the most promising and challenging directions for different objectives and PaML methods. Finally, a new PaML-based hydrology platform, termed HydroPML, is released as a foundation for hydrological applications. HydroPML enhances the explainability and causality of ML and lays the groundwork for the digital water cycle's realization. The HydroPML platform is publicly available at https://hydropml.github.io/.

Many problems in machine learning rely on multi-task learning (MTL), in which the goal is to solve multiple related machine learning tasks simultaneously. MTL is particularly relevant for privacy-sensitive applications in areas such as healthcare, finance, and IoT computing, where sensitive data from multiple, varied sources are shared for the purpose of learning. In this work, we formalize notions of client-level privacy for MTL via joint differential privacy (JDP), a relaxation of differential privacy for mechanism design and distributed optimization. We then propose an algorithm for mean-regularized MTL, an objective commonly used for applications in personalized federated learning, subject to JDP. We analyze our objective and solver, providing certifiable guarantees on both privacy and utility. Empirically, we find that our method provides improved privacy/utility trade-offs relative to global baselines across common federated learning benchmarks.

Distributed ensemble learning (DEL) involves training multiple models at distributed learners, and then combining their predictions to improve performance. Existing related studies focus on DEL algorithm design and optimization but ignore the important issue of incentives, without which self-interested learners may be unwilling to participate in DEL. We aim to fill this gap by presenting a first study on the incentive mechanism design for DEL. Our proposed mechanism specifies both the amount of training data and reward for learners with heterogeneous computation and communication costs. One design challenge is to have an accurate understanding regarding how learners' diversity (in terms of training data) affects the ensemble accuracy. To this end, we decompose the ensemble accuracy into a diversity-precision tradeoff to guide the mechanism design. Another challenge is that the mechanism design involves solving a mixed-integer program with a large search space. To this end, we propose an alternating algorithm that iteratively updates each learner's training data size and reward. We prove that under mild conditions, the algorithm converges. Numerical results using MNIST dataset show an interesting result: our proposed mechanism may prefer a lower level of learner diversity to achieve a higher ensemble accuracy.

We consider the problem of a revenue-maximizing seller with a large number of items $m$ for sale to $n$ strategic bidders, whose valuations are drawn independently from high-dimensional, unknown prior distributions. It is well-known that optimal and even approximately-optimal mechanisms for this setting are notoriously difficult to characterize or compute, and, even when they can be found, are often rife with various counter-intuitive properties. In this paper, following a model introduced recently by Cai and Daskalakis~\cite{cai2022recommender}, we consider the case that bidders' prior distributions can be well-approximated by a topic model. We design an active learning component, responsible for interacting with the bidders and outputting low-dimensional approximations of their types, and a mechanism design component, responsible for robustifying mechanisms for the low-dimensional model to work for the approximate types of the former component. On the active learning front, we cast our problem in the framework of Randomized Linear Algebra (RLA) for regression problems, allowing us to import several breakthrough results from that line of research, and adapt them to our setting. On the mechanism design front, we remove many restrictive assumptions of prior work on the type of access needed to the underlying distributions and the associated mechanisms. To the best of our knowledge, our work is the first to formulate connections between mechanism design, and RLA for active learning of regression problems, opening the door for further applications of randomized linear algebra primitives to mechanism design.

Recent research in decoding methods for Natural Language Generation (NLG) tasks has shown that MAP decoding is not optimal, because model probabilities do not always align with human preferences. Stronger decoding methods, including Quality Estimation (QE) reranking and Minimum Bayes' Risk (MBR) decoding, have since been proposed to mitigate the model-perplexity-vs-quality mismatch. While these decoding methods achieve state-of-the-art performance, they are prohibitively expensive to compute. In this work, we propose MBR finetuning and QE finetuning which distill the quality gains from these decoding methods at training time, while using an efficient decoding algorithm at inference time. Using the canonical NLG task of Neural Machine Translation (NMT), we show that even with self-training, these finetuning methods significantly outperform the base model. Moreover, when using an external LLM as a teacher model, these finetuning methods outperform finetuning on human-generated references. These findings suggest new ways to leverage monolingual data to achieve improvements in model quality that are on par with, or even exceed, improvements from human-curated data, while maintaining maximum efficiency during decoding.