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 Model-Based Reasoning


Unveiling Causal Reasoning in Large Language Models: Reality or Mirage?

Neural Information Processing Systems

Causal reasoning capability is critical in advancing large language models (LLMs) towards artificial general intelligence (AGI). While versatile LLMs appear to have demonstrated capabilities in understanding contextual causality and providing responses that obey the laws of causality, it remains unclear whether they perform genuine causal reasoning akin to humans. However, current evidence indicates the contrary. Specifically, LLMs are only capable of performing shallow (level-1) causal reasoning, primarily attributed to the causal knowledge embedded in their parameters, but they lack the capacity for genuine human-like (level-2) causal reasoning. To support this hypothesis, methodologically, we delve into the autoregression mechanism of transformer-based LLMs, revealing that it is not inherently causal.


Free Lunch in Pathology Foundation Model: Task-specific Model Adaptation with Concept-Guided Feature Enhancement

Neural Information Processing Systems

Whole slide image (WSI) analysis is gaining prominence within the medical imaging field. Recent advances in pathology foundation models have shown the potential to extract powerful feature representations from WSIs for downstream tasks. However, these foundation models are usually designed for general-purpose pathology image analysis and may not be optimal for specific downstream tasks or cancer types. In this work, we present Concept Anchor-guided Task-specific Feature Enhancement (CATE), an adaptable paradigm that can boost the expressivity and discriminativeness of pathology foundation models for specific downstream tasks. Based on a set of task-specific concepts derived from the pathology vision-language model with expert-designed prompts, we introduce two interconnected modules to dynamically calibrate the generic image features extracted by foundation models for certain tasks or cancer types.


Mechanism Design for Collaborative Normal Mean Estimation

Neural Information Processing Systems

We study collaborative normal mean estimation, where m strategic agents collect i.i.d samples from a normal distribution \mathcal{N}(\mu, \sigma 2) at a cost. They all wish to estimate the mean \mu . By sharing data with each other, agents can obtain better estimates while keeping the cost of data collection small. To facilitate this collaboration, we wish to design mechanisms that encourage agents to collect a sufficient amount of data and share it truthfully, so that they are all better off than working alone. In naive mechanisms, such as simply pooling and sharing all the data, an individual agent might find it beneficial to under-collect and/or fabricate data, which can lead to poor social outcomes.


Bicriteria Multidimensional Mechanism Design with Side Information

Neural Information Processing Systems

We develop a versatile new methodology for multidimensional mechanism design that incorporates side information about agent types to generate high social welfare and high revenue simultaneously. Prominent sources of side information in practice include predictions from a machine-learning model trained on historical agent data, advice from domain experts, and even the mechanism designer's own gut instinct. In this paper we adopt a prior-free perspective that makes no assumptions on the correctness, accuracy, or source of the side information. The welfare, revenue, and incentive properties of our meta-mechanism are characterized by novel constructions we introduce based on the notion of a weakest competitor, which is an agent that has the smallest impact on welfare. We show that our meta-mechanism, when carefully instantiated, simultaneously achieves strong welfare and revenue guarantees parameterized by errors in the side information.


SEA: State-Exchange Attention for High-Fidelity Physics Based Transformers

Neural Information Processing Systems

Current approaches using sequential networks have shown promise in estimating field variables for dynamical systems, but they are often limited by high rollout errors. The unresolved issue of rollout error accumulation results in unreliable estimations as the network predicts further into the future, with each step's error compounding and leading to an increase in inaccuracy. Here, we introduce the State-Exchange Attention (SEA) module, a novel transformer-based module enabling information exchange between encoded fields through multi-head cross-attention. The cross-field multidirectional information exchange design enables all state variables in the system to exchange information with one another, capturing physical relationships and symmetries between fields. Additionally, we introduce an efficient ViT-like mesh autoencoder to generate spatially coherent mesh embeddings for a large number of meshing cells.


ChaosBench: A Multi-Channel, Physics-Based Benchmark for Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Climate Prediction

Neural Information Processing Systems

Accurate prediction of climate in the subseasonal-to-seasonal scale is crucial for disaster preparedness and robust decision making amidst climate change. Yet, forecasting beyond the weather timescale is challenging because it deals with problems other than initial condition, including boundary interaction, butterfly effect, and our inherent lack of physical understanding. At present, existing benchmarks tend to have shorter forecasting range of up-to 15 days, do not include a wide range of operational baselines, and lack physics-based constraints for explainability. Thus, we propose ChaosBench, a challenging benchmark to extend the predictability range of data-driven weather emulators to S2S timescale. First, ChaosBench is comprised of variables beyond the typical surface-atmospheric ERA5 to also include ocean, ice, and land reanalysis products that span over 45 years to allow for full Earth system emulation that respects boundary conditions.


Optimal-state Dynamics Estimation for Physics-based Human Motion Capture from Videos

Neural Information Processing Systems

Human motion capture from monocular videos has made significant progress in recent years. However, modern approaches often produce temporal artifacts, e.g. in form of jittery motion and struggle to achieve smooth and physically plausible motions. Explicitly integrating physics, in form of internal forces and exterior torques, helps alleviating these artifacts. Current state-of-the-art approaches make use of an automatic PD controller to predict torques and reaction forces in order to re-simulate the input kinematics, i.e. the joint angles of a predefined skeleton. However, due to imperfect physical models, these methods often require simplifying assumptions and extensive preprocessing of the input kinematics to achieve good performance.


Mechanism design augmented with output advice

Neural Information Processing Systems

Our work revisits the design of mechanisms via the learning-augmented framework. In this model, the algorithm is enhanced with imperfect (machine-learned) information concerning the input, usually referred to as prediction. The goal is to design algorithms whose performance degrades gently as a function of the prediction error and, in particular, perform well if the prediction is accurate, but also provide a worst-case guarantee under any possible error. This framework has been successfully applied recently to various mechanism design settings, where in most cases the mechanism is provided with a prediction about the types of the players.We adopt a perspective in which the mechanism is provided with an output recommendation. We make no assumptions about the quality of the suggested outcome, and the goal is to use the recommendation to design mechanisms with low approximation guarantees whenever the recommended outcome is reasonable, but at the same time to provide worst-case guarantees whenever the recommendation significantly deviates from the optimal one.


Physics-Regularized Multi-Modal Image Assimilation for Brain Tumor Localization

Neural Information Processing Systems

Physical models in the form of partial differential equations serve as important priors for many under-constrained problems. One such application is tumor treatment planning, which relies on accurately estimating the spatial distribution of tumor cells within a patient's anatomy. While medical imaging can detect the bulk of a tumor, it cannot capture the full extent of its spread, as low-concentration tumor cells often remain undetectable, particularly in glioblastoma, the most common primary brain tumor. Machine learning approaches struggle to estimate the complete tumor cell distribution due to a lack of appropriate training data. Consequently, most existing methods rely on physics-based simulations to generate anatomically and physiologically plausible estimations. However, these approaches face challenges with complex and unknown initial conditions and are constrained by overly rigid physical models.


Governing Equation Discovery from Data Based on Differential Invariants

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The explicit governing equation is one of the simplest and most intuitive forms for characterizing physical laws. However, directly discovering partial differential equations (PDEs) from data poses significant challenges, primarily in determining relevant terms from a vast search space. Symmetry, as a crucial prior knowledge in scientific fields, has been widely applied in tasks such as designing equivariant networks and guiding neural PDE solvers. In this paper, we propose a pipeline for governing equation discovery based on differential invariants, which can losslessly reduce the search space of existing equation discovery methods while strictly adhering to symmetry. Specifically, we compute the set of differential invariants corresponding to the infinitesimal generators of the symmetry group and select them as the relevant terms for equation discovery. Taking DI-SINDy (SINDy based on Differential Invariants) as an example, we demonstrate that its success rate and accuracy in PDE discovery surpass those of other symmetry-informed governing equation discovery methods across a series of PDEs.