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 Model-Based Reasoning


Hybrid Generative Modeling for Incomplete Physics: Deep Grey-Box Meets Optimal Transport

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Physics phenomena are often described by ordinary and/or partial differential equations (ODEs/PDEs), and solved analytically or numerically. Unfortunately, many real-world systems are described only approximately with missing or unknown terms in the equations. This makes the distribution of the physics model differ from the true data-generating process (DGP). Using limited and unpaired data between DGP observations and the imperfect model simulations, we investigate this particular setting by completing the known-physics model, combining theory-driven models and data-driven to describe the shifted distribution involved in the DGP. We present a novel hybrid generative model approach combining deep grey-box modelling with Optimal Transport (OT) methods to enhance incomplete physics models. Our method implements OT maps in data space while maintaining minimal source distribution distortion, demonstrating superior performance in resolving the unpaired problem and ensuring correct usage of physics parameters. Unlike black-box alternatives, our approach leverages physics-based inductive biases to accurately learn system dynamics while preserving interpretability through its domain knowledge foundation. Experimental results validate our method's effectiveness in both generation tasks and model transparency, offering detailed insights into learned physics dynamics.


Unveiling Causal Reasoning in Large Language Models: Reality or Mirage?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Causal reasoning capability is critical in advancing large language models (LLMs) toward strong artificial intelligence. While versatile LLMs appear to have demonstrated capabilities in understanding contextual causality and providing responses that obey the laws of causality, it remains unclear whether they perform genuine causal reasoning akin to humans. However, current evidence indicates the contrary. Specifically, LLMs are only capable of performing shallow (level-1) causal reasoning, primarily attributed to the causal knowledge embedded in their parameters, but they lack the capacity for genuine human-like (level-2) causal reasoning. To support this hypothesis, methodologically, we delve into the autoregression mechanism of transformer-based LLMs, revealing that it is not inherently causal. Empirically, we introduce a new causal Q&A benchmark called CausalProbe-2024, whose corpora are fresh and nearly unseen for the studied LLMs. The LLMs exhibit a significant performance drop on CausalProbe-2024 compared to earlier benchmarks, indicating the fact that they primarily engage in level-1 causal reasoning. To bridge the gap towards level-2 causal reasoning, we draw inspiration from the fact that human reasoning is usually facilitated by general knowledge and intended goals. We propose G^2-Reasoner, a method that incorporates general knowledge and goal-oriented prompts into LLMs' causal reasoning processes. Experiments demonstrate that G^2-Reasoner significantly enhances LLMs' causal reasoning capability, particularly in fresh and counterfactual contexts. This work sheds light on a new path for LLMs to advance towards genuine causal reasoning, going beyond level-1 and making strides towards level-2.


Doing Good or Doing Right? Exploring the Weakness of Commonsense Causal Reasoning Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Pretrained language models (PLM) achieve surprising performance on the Choice of Plausible Alternatives (COPA) task. However, whether PLMs have truly acquired the ability of causal reasoning remains a question. In this paper, we investigate the problem of semantic similarity bias and reveal the vulnerability of current COPA models by certain attacks. Previous solutions that tackle the superficial cues of unbalanced token distribution still encounter the same problem of semantic bias, even more seriously due to the utilization of more training data. We mitigate this problem by simply adding a regularization loss and experimental results show that this solution not only improves the model's generalization ability, but also assists the models to perform more robustly on a challenging dataset, BCOPA-CE, which has unbiased token distribution and is more difficult for models to distinguish cause and effect.


Network Structures as an Attack Surface: Topology-Based Privacy Leakage in Federated Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Federated learning systems increasingly rely on diverse network topologies to address scalability and organizational constraints. While existing privacy research focuses on gradient-based attacks, the privacy implications of network topology knowledge remain critically understudied. We conduct the first comprehensive analysis of topology-based privacy leakage across realistic adversarial knowledge scenarios, demonstrating that adversaries with varying degrees of structural knowledge can infer sensitive data distribution patterns even under strong differential privacy guarantees. Through systematic evaluation of 4,720 attack instances, we analyze six distinct adversarial knowledge scenarios: complete topology knowledge and five partial knowledge configurations reflecting real-world deployment constraints. We propose three complementary attack vectors: communication pattern analysis, parameter magnitude profiling, and structural position correlation, achieving success rates of 84.1%, 65.0%, and 47.2% under complete knowledge conditions. Critically, we find that 80% of realistic partial knowledge scenarios maintain attack effectiveness above security thresholds, with certain partial knowledge configurations achieving performance superior to the baseline complete knowledge scenario. To address these vulnerabilities, we propose and empirically validate structural noise injection as a complementary defense mechanism across 808 configurations, demonstrating up to 51.4% additional attack reduction when properly layered with existing privacy techniques. These results establish that network topology represents a fundamental privacy vulnerability in federated learning systems while providing practical pathways for mitigation through topology-aware defense mechanisms.


Physically-informed change-point kernels for structural dynamics

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The relative balance between physics and data within any physics-informed machine learner is an important modelling consideration to ensure that the benefits of both physics and data-based approaches are maximised. An over reliance on physical knowledge can be detrimental, particularly when the physics-based component of a model may not accurately represent the true underlying system. An underutilisation of physical knowledge potentially wastes a valuable resource, along with benefits in model interpretability and reduced demand for expensive data collection. Achieving an optimal physics-data balance is a challenging aspect of model design, particularly if the level varies through time; for example, one might have a physical approximation, only valid within particular regimes, or a physical phenomenon may be known to only occur when given conditions are met (e.g. at high temperatures). This paper develops novel, physically-informed, change-point kernels for Gaussian processes, capable of dynamically varying the reliance upon available physical knowledge. A high level of control is granted to a user, allowing for the definition of conditions in which they believe a phenomena should occur and the rate at which the knowledge should be phased in and out of a model. In circumstances where users may be less certain, the switching reliance upon physical knowledge may be automatically learned and recovered from the model in an interpretable and intuitive manner. Variation of the modelled noise based on the physical phenomena occurring is also implemented to provide a more representative capture of uncertainty alongside predictions. The capabilities of the new kernel structures are explored through the use of two engineering case studies: the directional wind loading of a cable-stayed bridge and the prediction of aircraft wing strain during in-flight manoeuvring.


Think before You Simulate: Symbolic Reasoning to Orchestrate Neural Computation for Counterfactual Question Answering

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Causal and temporal reasoning about video dynamics is a challenging problem. While neuro-symbolic models that combine symbolic reasoning with neural-based perception and prediction have shown promise, they exhibit limitations, especially in answering counterfactual questions. This paper introduces a method to enhance a neuro-symbolic model for counterfactual reasoning, leveraging symbolic reasoning about causal relations among events. We define the notion of a causal graph to represent such relations and use Answer Set Programming (ASP), a declarative logic programming method, to find how to coordinate perception and simulation modules. We validate the effectiveness of our approach on two benchmarks, CLEVRER and CRAFT. Our enhancement achieves state-of-the-art performance on the CLEVRER challenge, significantly outperforming existing models. In the case of the CRAFT benchmark, we leverage a large pre-trained language model, such as GPT-3.5 and GPT-4, as a proxy for a dynamics simulator. Our findings show that this method can further improve its performance on counterfactual questions by providing alternative prompts instructed by symbolic causal reasoning.


Analytic Task Scheduler: Recursive Least Squares Based Method for Continual Learning in Embodied Foundation Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Embodied foundation models are crucial for Artificial Intelligence (AI) interacting with the physical world by integrating multi-modal inputs, such as proprioception, vision and language, to understand human intentions and generate actions to control robots. While these models demonstrate strong generalization and few-shot learning capabilities, they face significant challenges in continually acquiring new skills without forgetting previously learned skills, a problem known as catastrophic forgetting. To address this issue, we propose the Analytic Task Scheduler (ATS), a novel framework for continual learning in embodied foundation models. ATS consists of a task-specific model library, where each model is fine-tuned independently on a single task, and an analytic scheduler trained using recursive least squares (RLS) to learn the mapping between language instructions and task-specific models. This architecture enables accurate task recognition and dynamic model selection while fundamentally avoiding parameter interference across tasks. The scheduler updates its parameters incrementally using only statistics (autocorrelation and cross-correlation matrices), enabling forgetting-resistant learning without the need to revisit historical data. We validate ATS on a real-world robot platform (RM65B), demonstrating superior resistance to forgetting and strong adaptability to task variations. The results highlight ATS as an effective, scalable, and deployable solution for continual learning in embodied foundation models operating in complex, dynamic environments. Our code will be available at https://github.com/MIAA-Embodied-AI/AnalyticTaskScheduler


Physics-informed Temporal Alignment for Auto-regressive PDE Foundation Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Auto-regressive partial differential equation (PDE) foundation models have shown great potential in handling time-dependent data. However, these models suffer from the shortcut problem deeply rooted in auto-regressive prediction, causing error accumulation. The challenge becomes particularly evident for out-of-distribution data, as the pretraining performance may approach random model initialization for downstream tasks with long-term dynamics. To deal with this problem, we propose physics-informed temporal alignment (PITA), a self-supervised learning framework inspired by inverse problem solving. Specifically, PITA aligns the physical dynamics discovered at different time steps on each given PDE trajectory by integrating physics-informed constraints into the self-supervision signal. The alignment is derived from observation data without relying on known physics priors, indicating strong generalization ability to the out-of-distribution data. Extensive experiments show that PITA significantly enhances the accuracy and robustness of existing foundation models on diverse time-dependent PDE data. The code is available at https://github.com/SCAILab-USTC/PITA.


Defining Foundation Models for Computational Science: A Call for Clarity and Rigor

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The widespread success of foundation models in natural language processing and computer vision has inspired researchers to extend the concept to scientific machine learning and computational science. However, this position paper argues that as the term "foundation model" is an evolving concept, its application in computational science is increasingly used without a universally accepted definition, potentially creating confusion and diluting its precise scientific meaning. In this paper, we address this gap by proposing a formal definition of foundation models in computational science, grounded in the core values of generality, reusability, and scalability. We articulate a set of essential and desirable characteristics that such models must exhibit, drawing parallels with traditional foundational methods, like the finite element and finite volume methods. Furthermore, we introduce the Data-Driven Finite Element Method (DD-FEM), a framework that fuses the modular structure of classical FEM with the representational power of data-driven learning. We demonstrate how DD-FEM addresses many of the key challenges in realizing foundation models for computational science, including scalability, adaptability, and physics consistency. By bridging traditional numerical methods with modern AI paradigms, this work provides a rigorous foundation for evaluating and developing novel approaches toward future foundation models in computational science.


MAC Advice for facility location mechanism design

Neural Information Processing Systems

Algorithms with predictions are gaining traction across various domains, as a way to surpass traditional worst-case bounds through (machine-learned) advice. We study the canonical problem of k -facility location mechanism design,where the n agents are strategic and might misreport their locations. We receive a prediction for each agent's location, and these predictions are crucially allowed to be only "mostly" and "approximately" correct (MAC for short): a \delta -fraction of the predicted locations are allowed to be arbitrarily incorrect, and the remainder of the predictions are required to be correct up to an \varepsilon -error. Moreover, we make no assumption on the independence of the errors.Can such "flawed" predictions allow us to beat the current best bounds for strategyprooffacility location?We show how natural robustness of the 1 -median (also known as the geometric median) of a set of points leads to an algorithm for single-facility location with MAC predictions. We extend our results to a natural "balanced" variant of the k -facility case, and show that without balancedness, robustness completely breaks down even for k 2 facilities on a line. As our main result, for this "unbalanced" setting we devise a truthful random mechanism, which outperforms the best known mechanism (with no predictions) by Lu et al. [2010].