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Decision Trees for Function Evaluation - Simultaneous Optimization of Worst and Expected Cost

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In several applications of automatic diagnosis and active learning a central problem is the evaluation of a discrete function by adaptively querying the values of its variables until the values read uniquely determine the value of the function. In general, the process of reading the value of a variable might involve some cost, computational or even a fee to be paid for the experiment required for obtaining the value. This cost should be taken into account when deciding the next variable to read. The goal is to design a strategy for evaluating the function incurring little cost (in the worst case or in expectation according to a prior distribution on the possible variables' assignments). Our algorithm builds a strategy (decision tree) which attains a logarithmic approxima- tion simultaneously for the expected and worst cost spent. This is best possible under the assumption that $P \neq NP.$


Recognizing Blind Spot Check Activity with Car Drivers Based on Decision Tree Classifier Approach

AAAI Conferences

Blind spot check is important driving activity that is a good indicator of drivers’ proficiency and vigilance. By recognizing the blind spot check activity with drivers, it is possible to quantify and qualify the proficiency of the drivers, but also to cross validate this information with other data such the fatigue level. Thus, in this paper, we present a blind spot check activity recognition system where decision tree classifiers are modeled for each drivers and are used to automatically recognize the blind spot checks.


Using Model-Based Diagnosis to Improve Software Testing

AAAI Conferences

We propose a combination of AI techniques to improve softwaretesting. When a test fails, a model-based diagnosis(MBD) algorithm is used to propose a set of possible explanations.We call these explanations diagnoses. Then, a planningalgorithm is used to suggest further tests to identify thecorrect diagnosis. A tester preforms these tests and reportstheir outcome back to the MBD algorithm, which uses thisinformation to prune incorrect diagnoses. This iterative processcontinues until the correct diagnosis is returned. We callthis testing paradigm Test, Diagnose and Plan (TDP). Severaltest planning algorithms are proposed to minimize the numberof TDP iterations, and consequently the number of testsrequired until the correct diagnosis is found. Experimentalresults show the benefits of using an MDP-based planning algorithmsover greedy test planning in three benchmarks.


Diagnosing Analogue Linear Systems Using Dynamic Topological Reconfiguration

AAAI Conferences

Fault diagnosis of analogue linear systems poses many challenges, such as the size of the search space that must be explored and the possibility of simulation instabilities introduced by particular fault classes. We study a novel algorithm that addresses both problems. This algorithm dynamically modifies the simulation model during diagnosis by pruning parametrized components that cause discontinuity in the model. We provide a theoretical framework for predicting the speedups, which depends on the topology of the model. We empirically validate the theoretical predictions through extensive experimentation on a benchmark of circuits.


The Diagnostic Competitions

AI Magazine

Therefore, diagnostic algorithms must reason backwards from symptoms to causes. For example, determining that a dead battery is the cause of your car not starting in the morning (and not the wiring or the ignition switch). The domains of diagnostic algorithms includes analog and digital circuits, software systems, thermal systems, biological systems, and physical mechanisms. The same classes of diagnostic algorithms can apply in all domains. Diagnostic algorithms make observations, often in real time, of a system being diagnosed.


Appropriate Causal Models and Stability of Causation

AAAI Conferences

Causal models defined in terms of structural equations have proved to be quite a powerful way of representing knowledge regarding causality. However, a number of authors have given examples that seem to show that the Halpern-Pearl (HP) definition of causality (Halpern & Pearl 2005) gives intuitively unreasonable answers. Here it is shown that, for each of these examples, we can give two stories consistent with the description in the example, such that intuitions regarding causality are quite different for each story. By adding additional variables, we can disambiguate the stories. Moreover, in the resulting causal models, the HP definition of causality gives the intuitively correct answer. It is also shown that, by adding extra variables, a modification to the original HP definition made to deal with an example of Hopkins and Pearl (2003) may not be necessary. Given how much can be done by adding extra variables, there might be a concern that the notion of causality is somewhat unstable. Can adding extra variables in a "conservative" way (i.e., maintaining all the relations between the variables in the original model) cause the answer to the question "Is X = x a cause of Y =  y ?" to alternate between "yes" and "no"? Here it is shown that adding an extra variable can change the answer from "yes' to "no", but after that, it cannot cannot change back to "yes".


Study design in causal models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The causal assumptions, the study design and the data are the elements required for scientific inference in empirical research. The research is adequately communicated only if all of these elements and their relations are described precisely. Causal models with design describe the study design and the missing data mechanism together with the causal structure and allow the direct application of causal calculus in the estimation of the causal effects. The flow of the study is visualized by ordering the nodes of the causal diagram in two dimensions by their causal order and the time of the observation. Conclusions whether a causal or observational relationship can be estimated from the collected incomplete data can be made directly from the graph. Causal models with design offer a systematic and unifying view scientific inference and increase the clarity and speed of communication. Examples on the causal models for a case-control study, a nested case-control study, a clinical trial and a two-stage case-cohort study are presented.


Bayesian Sample Size Determination of Vibration Signals in Machine Learning Approach to Fault Diagnosis of Roller Bearings

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Sample size determination for a data set is an important statistical process for analyzing the data to an optimum level of accuracy and using minimum computational work. The applications of this process are credible in every domain which deals with large data sets and high computational work. This study uses Bayesian analysis for determination of minimum sample size of vibration signals to be considered for fault diagnosis of a bearing using pre-defined parameters such as the inverse standard probability and the acceptable margin of error. Thus an analytical formula for sample size determination is introduced. The fault diagnosis of the bearing is done using a machine learning approach using an entropy-based J48 algorithm. The following method will help researchers involved in fault diagnosis to determine minimum sample size of data for analysis for a good statistical stability and precision.


Compact Representations of Extended Causal Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

One of Judea Pearl's many, many important contributions to the study of causality was the first attempt to use the mathematical tools of causal modeling to give an account of "actual causation", a notion that has been of considerable interest among philosophers and legal theorists (Pearl, 2000, Chapter 10). Pearl later revised his account of actual causation in joint work with Halpern (Halpern & Pearl, 2005). A number of authors (Hall, 2007; Halpern, 2008; Hitchcock, 2007; Menzies, 2004) have suggested that an account of actual causation must be sensitive to considerations of normality, as well as to causal structure. In (Halpern & Hitchcock, 2011), we suggest a way of incorporating considerations of normality into the Halpern-Pearl theory, and show how to extend the account to illuminate features of the psychology of causal judgment, as well as features of causal reasoning in the law. Our account of actual causation makes use of "extended causal models", which include both structural equations among a set of variables, and a partial preorder on possible worlds, which represents the relative "normality" of those worlds. We actually want to think of people as working with the structural equations and normality order to evaluate actual causation. However, consideration of even simple examples immediately suggests a problem. A direct representation of the equations and normality order is too cumbersome for cognitively limited agents to use effectively. If our account of actual causation is to be at all realistic as a model of human causal judgment, some form of compact representation will be needed.


Ensemble approaches for improving community detection methods

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Statistical estimates can often be improved by fusion of data from several different sources. One example is so-called ensemble methods which have been successfully applied in areas such as machine learning for classification and clustering. In this paper, we present an ensemble method to improve community detection by aggregating the information found in an ensemble of community structures. This ensemble can found by re-sampling methods, multiple runs of a stochastic community detection method, or by several different community detection algorithms applied to the same network. The proposed method is evaluated using random networks with community structures and compared with two commonly used community detection methods. The proposed method when applied on a stochastic community detection algorithm performs well with low computational complexity, thus offering both a new approach to community detection and an additional community detection method.