We introduce a computationally efficient method to estimate the validity of the BP method as a function of graph topology, the connectivity strength, frustration and network size.

We introduce a computationally efficient method to estimate the validity of the BP method as a function of graph topology, the connectivity strength, frustration and network size. We present numerical results that demonstrate the correctness of our estimates for the uniform random model and for a real-world network ("C.

We introduce a computationally efficient method to estimate the validity of the BP method as a function of graph topology, the connectivity strength, frustration and network size. We present numerical results that demonstrate the correctness of our estimates for the uniform random model and for a real-world network ("C.

We describe a three-dimensional geometric hand model suitable for visual tracking applications. The kinematic constraints implied by the model's joints have a probabilistic structure which is well described by a graphical model. Inference in this model is complicated by the hand's many degrees of freedom, as well as multimodal likelihoods caused by ambiguous image measurements. We use nonparametric belief propagation (NBP) to develop a tracking algorithm which exploits the graph's structure to control complexity, while avoiding costly discretization. While kinematic constraints naturally have a local structure, self-occlusions created by the imaging process lead to complex interpendencies in color and edge-based likelihood functions. However, we show that local structure may be recovered by introducing binary hidden variables describing the occlusion state of each pixel. We augment the NBP algorithm to infer these occlusion variables in a distributed fashion, and then analytically marginalize over them to produce hand position estimates which properly account for occlusion events. We provide simulations showing that NBP may be used to refine inaccurate model initializations, as well as track hand motion through extended image sequences.

We describe a three-dimensional geometric hand model suitable for visual tracking applications. The kinematic constraints implied by the model's joints have a probabilistic structure which is well described by a graphical model. Inference in this model is complicated by the hand's many degrees of freedom, as well as multimodal likelihoods caused by ambiguous image measurements. We use nonparametric belief propagation (NBP) to develop a tracking algorithm which exploits the graph's structure to control complexity, while avoiding costly discretization. While kinematic constraints naturally have a local structure, self-occlusions created by the imaging process lead to complex interpendencies in color and edge-based likelihood functions. However, we show that local structure may be recovered by introducing binary hidden variables describing the occlusion state of each pixel. We augment the NBP algorithm to infer these occlusion variables in a distributed fashion, and then analytically marginalize over them to produce hand position estimates which properly account for occlusion events. We provide simulations showing that NBP may be used to refine inaccurate model initializations, as well as track hand motion through extended image sequences.

We describe a three-dimensional geometric hand model suitable for visual trackingapplications. The kinematic constraints implied by the model's joints have a probabilistic structure which is well described by a graphical model. Inference in this model is complicated by the hand's many degrees of freedom, as well as multimodal likelihoods caused by ambiguous image measurements. We use nonparametric belief propagation (NBP)to develop a tracking algorithm which exploits the graph's structure to control complexity, while avoiding costly discretization. While kinematic constraints naturally have a local structure, self-occlusions created by the imaging process lead to complex interpendencies incolor and edge-based likelihood functions. However, we show that local structure may be recovered by introducing binary hidden variables describingthe occlusion state of each pixel. We augment the NBP algorithm to infer these occlusion variables in a distributed fashion, and then analytically marginalize over them to produce hand position estimates whichproperly account for occlusion events. We provide simulations showing that NBP may be used to refine inaccurate model initializations, aswell as track hand motion through extended image sequences.

Mitchell and Levesque provide commentary on the two AAAI Classic Paper awards, given at the AAAI-05 conference in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The two winning papers were "Quantifying the Inductive Bias in Concept Learning," by David Haussler, and "Default Reasoning, Nonmonotonic Logics, and the Frame Problem," by Steve Hanks and Drew McDermott.

This paper extends the framework of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) to multi-agent settings by incorporating the notion of agent models into the state space. Agents maintain beliefs over physical states of the environment and over models of other agents, and they use Bayesian updates to maintain their beliefs over time. The solutions map belief states to actions. Models of other agents may include their belief states and are related to agent types considered in games of incomplete information. We express the agents' autonomy by postulating that their models are not directly manipulable or observable by other agents. We show that important properties of POMDPs, such as convergence of value iteration, the rate of convergence, and piece-wise linearity and convexity of the value functions carry over to our framework. Our approach complements a more traditional approach to interactive settings which uses Nash equilibria as a solution paradigm. We seek to avoid some of the drawbacks of equilibria which may be non-unique and do not capture off-equilibrium behaviors. We do so at the cost of having to represent, process and continuously revise models of other agents. Since the agent's beliefs may be arbitrarily nested, the optimal solutions to decision making problems are only asymptotically computable. However, approximate belief updates and approximately optimal plans are computable. We illustrate our framework using a simple application domain, and we show examples of belief updates and value functions.

Belief propagation on cyclic graphs is an efficient algorithm for computing approximate marginal probability distributions over single nodes and neighboring nodes in the graph. In this paper we propose two new algorithms for approximating joint probabilities of arbitrary pairs of nodes and prove a number of desirable properties that these estimates fulfill. The first algorithm is a propagation algorithm which is shown to converge if belief propagation converges to a stable fixed point. The second algorithm is based on matrix inversion. Experiments compare a number of competing methods.

Belief propagation on cyclic graphs is an efficient algorithm for computing approximate marginal probability distributions over single nodes and neighboring nodes in the graph. In this paper we propose two new algorithms for approximating joint probabilities of arbitrary pairs of nodes and prove a number of desirable properties that these estimates fulfill. The first algorithm is a propagation algorithm which is shown to converge if belief propagation converges to a stable fixed point. The second algorithm is based on matrix inversion. Experiments compare a number of competing methods.