We show that an important and computationally challenging solution space feature of the graph coloring problem (COL), namely the number of clusters of solutions, can be accurately estimated by a technique very similar to one for counting the number of solutions. This cluster counting approach can be naturally written in terms of a new factor graph derived from the factor graph representing the COL instance. Using a variant of the Belief Propagation inference framework, we can efficiently approximate cluster counts in random COL problems over a large range of graph densities. We illustrate the algorithm on instances with up to 100, 000 vertices. Moreover, we supply a methodology for computing the number of clusters exactlyusing advanced techniques from the knowledge compilation literature.

We show that an important and computationally challenging solution space feature of the graph coloring problem (COL), namely the number of clusters of solutions, can be accurately estimated by a technique very similar to one for counting the number of solutions. This cluster counting approach can be naturally written in terms of a new factor graph derived from the factor graph representing the COL instance. Using a variant of the Belief Propagation inference framework, we can efficiently approximate cluster counts in random COL problems over a large range of graph densities. We illustrate the algorithm on instances with up to 100, 000 vertices. Moreover, we supply a methodology for computing the number of clusters exactly using advanced techniques from the knowledge compilation literature.

We show that an important and computationally challenging solution space feature of the graph coloring problem (COL), namely the number of clusters of solutions, can be accurately estimated by a technique very similar to one for counting the number of solutions. This cluster counting approach can be naturally written in terms of a new factor graph derived from the factor graph representing the COL instance. Using a variant of the Belief Propagation inference framework, we can efficiently approximate cluster counts in random COL problems over a large range of graph densities. We illustrate the algorithm on instances with up to 100, 000 vertices. Moreover, we supply a methodology for computing the number of clusters exactly using advanced techniques from the knowledge compilation literature.

We study the profit-maximization problem of a monopolistic market-maker who sets two-sided prices in an asset market. The sequential decision problem is hard to solve because the state space is a function. We demonstrate that the belief state is well approximated by a Gaussian distribution. We prove a key monotonicity property of the Gaussian state update which makes the problem tractable, yielding the first optimal sequential market-making algorithm in an established model. The algorithm leads to a surprising insight: an optimal monopolist can provide more liquidity than perfectly competitive market-makers in periods of extreme uncertainty, because a monopolist is willing to absorb initial losses in order to learn a new valuation rapidly so she can extract higher profits later.

Empirical studies have documented cases of belief polarization, where two people withopposing prior beliefs both strengthen their beliefs after observing the same evidence. Belief polarization is frequently offered as evidence of human irrationality, but we demonstrate that this phenomenon is consistent with a fully Bayesian approach to belief revision. Simulation results indicate that belief polarization isnot only possible but relatively common within the set of Bayesian models that we consider. Suppose that Carol has requested a promotion at her company and has received a score of 50 on an aptitude test. Alice, one of the company's managers, began with a high opinion of Carol and became even more confident of her abilities after seeing her test score.

We propose a new approach to the analysis of Loopy Belief Propagation (LBP) by establishing a formula that connects the Hessian of the Bethe free energy with the edge zeta function. The formula has a number of theoretical implications on LBP. It is applied to give a sufficient condition that the Hessian of the Bethe free energy is positive definite, which shows non-convexity for graphs with multiple cycles. The formula clarifies the relation between the local stability of a fixed point of LBP and local minima of the Bethe free energy. We also propose a new approach to the uniqueness of LBP fixed point, and show various conditions of uniqueness.

We address the problem of belief change in (nonmonotonic) logic programming under answer set semantics. Unlike previous approaches to belief change in logic programming, our formal techniques are analogous to those of distance-based belief revision in propositional logic. In developing our results, we build upon the model theory of logic programs furnished by SE models. Since SE models provide a formal, monotonic characterisation of logic programs, we can adapt techniques from the area of belief revision to belief change in logic programs. We introduce methods for revising and merging logic programs, respectively. For the former, we study both subset-based revision as well as cardinality-based revision, and we show that they satisfy the majority of the AGM postulates for revision. For merging, we consider operators following arbitration merging and IC merging, respectively. We also present encodings for computing the revision as well as the merging of logic programs within the same logic programming framework, giving rise to a direct implementation of our approach in terms of off-the-shelf answer set solvers. These encodings reflect in turn the fact that our change operators do not increase the complexity of the base formalism.

We propose a database model that allows users to annotate data with belief statements. Our motivation comes from scientific database applications where a community of users is working together to assemble, revise, and curate a shared data repository. As the community accumulates knowledge and the database content evolves over time, it may contain conflicting information and members can disagree on the information it should store. For example, Alice may believe that a tuple should be in the database, whereas Bob disagrees. He may also insert the reason why he thinks Alice believes the tuple should be in the database, and explain what he thinks the correct tuple should be instead. We propose a formal model for Belief Databases that interprets users' annotations as belief statements. These annotations can refer both to the base data and to other annotations. We give a formal semantics based on a fragment of multi-agent epistemic logic and define a query language over belief databases. We then prove a key technical result, stating that every belief database can be encoded as a canonical Kripke structure. We use this structure to describe a relational representation of belief databases, and give an algorithm for translating queries over the belief database into standard relational queries. Finally, we report early experimental results with our prototype implementation on synthetic data.

In this paper we propose a new family of Belief Conditioning Rules (BCRs) for belief revision. These rules are not directly related with the fusion of several sources of evidence but with the revision of a belief assignment available at a given time according to the new truth (i.e. conditioning constraint) one has about the space of solutions of the problem.

This paper describes a novel and competitive complete conformant planner. Key to the enhanced performance is an efficient encoding of belief states as disjunctive normal form formulae and an efficient procedure for computing the successor belief state. We provide experimental comparative evaluation on a large pool of benchmarks. The novel design provides great efficiency and enhanced scalability, along with the intuitive structure of disjunctive normal form representations.