The aim of Belief Merging is to aggregate possibly conflicting pieces of information issued from different sources. The quality of the resulting set is usually considered in terms of a closeness criterion between the resulting belief set and the initial belief sets. The notion of distance between belief sets is thus a crucial issue when we face the merging problem. The aim of this paper is twofold: introducing a syntactical way to calculate distances and proposing the use of a distance based on prime implicants and prime implicates that considers the importance of each propositional symbol in the belief set.

The paper develops a formal model for interpreting vague languages based on a variant of "supervaluation" semantics. Two modes of semantic variability are modelled, corresponding to different aspects of vagueness: one mode arises where there can be multiple definitions of a term; and the other relates to the threshold of applicability of a vague term with respect to the magnitude of relevant observable values. The truth of a proposition depends on both the possible world and the "precisification" with respect to which it is evaluated. Structures representing possible worlds and precisifications are both specified in terms of primitive functions representing observable measurements, so that the semantics is grounded upon an underlying theory of physical reality. On the basis of this semantics, the acceptability of a proposition to an agent is characterised in terms of a combination of agent's beliefs about the world and their attitude to admissible interpretations of vague predicates.

A recent direction within belief revision theory is to develop a theory of belief change for the Horn knowledge representation framework. We consider questions related to the complexity aspects of previous work, leading to questions about Horn envelopes (or Horn LUB’s), introduced earlier in the context of knowledge compilation. A characterization is obtained of the remainders of a Horn be- lief set with respect to a consequence to be contracted, as the Horn envelopes of the belief set and an elementary conjunction corresponding to a truth assignment satisfying a certain body building formula. This gives an efficient algorithm to generate all remainders, each represented by a truth assignment. On the negative side, examples are given of Horn belief sets and consequences where Horn formulas representing the result of most contraction operators, based either on remainders or on weak remainders, must have exponential size.

Some recent works in conditional planning have proposed reachability heuristics to improve planner scalability, but many lack a formal description of the properties of their distance estimates. To place previous work in context and extend work on heuristics for conditional planning, we provide a formal basis for distance estimates between belief states. We give a definition for the distance between belief states that relies on aggregating underlying state distance measures. We give several techniques to aggregate state distances and their associated properties. Many existing heuristics exhibit a subset of the properties, but in order to provide a standardized comparison we present several generalizations of planning graph heuristics that are used in a single planner. We compliment our belief state distance estimate framework by also investigating efficient planning graph data structures that incorporate BDDs to compute the most effective heuristics. We developed two planners to serve as test-beds for our investigation. The first, CAltAlt, is a conformant regression planner that uses A* search. The second, POND, is a conditional progression planner that uses AO* search. We show the relative effectiveness of our heuristic techniques within these planners. We also compare the performance of these planners with several state of the art approaches in conditional planning.

We propose a new approach to the theoretical analysis of Loopy Belief Propagation (LBP) and the Bethe free energy (BFE) by establishing a formula to connect LBP and BFE with a graph zeta function. The proposed approach is applicable to a wide class of models including multinomial and Gaussian types. The connection derives a number of new theoretical results on LBP and BFE. This paper focuses two of such topics. One is the analysis of the region where the Hessian of the Bethe free energy is positive definite, which derives the non-convexity of BFE for graphs with multiple cycles, and a condition of convexity on a restricted set. This analysis also gives a new condition for the uniqueness of the LBP fixed point. The other result is to clarify the relation between the local stability of a fixed point of LBP and local minima of the BFE, which implies, for example, that a locally stable fixed point of the Gaussian LBP is a local minimum of the Gaussian Bethe free energy.

In action domains where agents may have erroneous beliefs, reasoning about the effects of actions involves reasoning about belief change. In this paper, we use a transition system approach to reason about the evolution of an agent's beliefs as actions are executed. Some actions cause an agent to perform belief revision while others cause an agent to perform belief update, but the interaction between revision and update can be non-elementary. We present a set of rationality properties describing the interaction between revision and update, and we introduce a new class of belief change operators for reasoning about alternating sequences of revisions and updates. Our belief change operators can be characterized in terms of a natural shifting operation on total pre-orderings over interpretations. We compare our approach with related work on iterated belief change due to action, and we conclude with some directions for future research.

External information propagates in the cell mainly through signaling cascades and transcriptional activation, allowing it to react to a wide spectrum of environmental changes. High throughput experiments identify numerous molecular components of such cascades that may, however, interact through unknown partners. Some of them may be detected using data coming from the integration of a protein-protein interaction network and mRNA expression profiles. This inference problem can be mapped onto the problem of finding appropriate optimal connected subgraphs of a network defined by these datasets. The optimization procedure turns out to be computationally intractable in general. Here we present a new distributed algorithm for this task, inspired from statistical physics, and apply this scheme to alpha factor and drug perturbations data in yeast. We identify the role of the COS8 protein, a member of a gene family of previously unknown function, and validate the results by genetic experiments. The algorithm we present is specially suited for very large datasets, can run in parallel, and can be adapted to other problems in systems biology. On renowned benchmarks it outperforms other algorithms in the field.

We present an exact method of greatly speeding up belief propagation (BP) for a wide variety of potential functions in pairwise MRFs and other graphical models. Specifically, our technique applies whenever the pairwise potentials have been {\em truncated} to a constant value for most pairs of states, as is commonly done in MRF models with robust potentials (such as stereo) that impose an upper bound on the penalty assigned to discontinuities; for each of the $M$ possible states in one node, only a smaller number $m$ of compatible states in a neighboring node are assigned milder penalties. The computational complexity of our method is $O(mM)$, compared with $O(M^2)$ for standard BP, and we emphasize that the method is {\em exact}, in contrast with related techniques such as pruning; moreover, the method is very simple and easy to implement. Unlike some previous work on speeding up BP, our method applies both to sum-product and max-product BP, which makes it useful in any applications where marginal probabilities are required, such as maximum likelihood estimation. We demonstrate the technique on a stereo MRF example, confirming that the technique speeds up BP without altering the solution.

Many problems require repeated inference on probabilistic graphical models, with different values for evidence variables or other changes. Examples of such problems include utility maximization, MAP inference, online and interactive inference, parameter and structure learning, and dynamic inference. Since small changes to the evidence typically only affect a small region of the network, repeatedly performing inference from scratch can be massively redundant. In this paper, we propose expanding frontier belief propagation (EFBP), an efficient approximate algorithm for probabilistic inference with incremental changes to the evidence (or model). EFBP is an extension of loopy belief propagation (BP) where each run of inference reuses results from the previous ones, instead of starting from scratch with the new evidence; messages are only propagated in regions of the network affected by the changes. We provide theoretical guarantees bounding the difference in beliefs generated by EFBP and standard BP, and apply EFBP to the problem of expected utility maximization in influence diagrams. Experiments on viral marketing and combinatorial auction problems show that EFBP can converge much faster than BP without significantly affecting the quality of the solutions.

Belief revision performs belief change on an agent's beliefs when new evidence (either of the form of a propositional formula or of the form of a total pre-order on a set of interpretations) is received. Jeffrey's rule is commonly used for revising probabilistic epistemic states when new information is probabilistically uncertain. In this paper, we propose a general epistemic revision framework where new evidence is of the form of a partial epistemic state. Our framework extends Jeffrey's rule with uncertain inputs and covers well-known existing frameworks such as ordinal conditional function (OCF) or possibility theory. We then define a set of postulates that such revision operators shall satisfy and establish representation theorems to characterize those postulates. We show that these postulates reveal common characteristics of various existing revision strategies and are satisfied by OCF conditionalization, Jeffrey's rule of conditioning and possibility conditionalization. Furthermore, when reducing to the belief revision situation, our postulates can induce most of Darwiche and Pearl's postulates.