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 Belief Revision


RESIDUE A Deductive Approach to Design Synthesis

AI Classics

We present a new approach to deductive design synthesis, the Residue Approach, in which designs are represented as sets of constraints. Previous approaches, such as PROLOG [181 or the work of Manna and WaWinger [111, express designs as bindings on single terms. We give a complete and sound procedure for Ending sets of propositions constituting a legal design. The size of the search space of the procedure and the advantages and disadvantages of the Residue Approach are analysed. In particular we show how Residue can avoid backtracking caused by making design decisions of overly coarse granularity. In contrast, it is awkward for the single term approaches to do the same. In addition we give a rule for constraint propagation in deductive synthesis, and show its use in pruning the design space. Finally, Residue is related to other work, in particular, to Default Logic [16] and to Assumption-Based Truth Maintenance [1].



Approximate evaluation of marginal association probabilities with belief propagation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Data association, the problem of reasoning over correspondence between targets and measurements, is a fundamental problem in tracking. This paper presents a graphical model formulation of data association and applies an approximate inference method, belief propagation (BP), to obtain estimates of marginal association probabilities. We prove that BP is guaranteed to converge, and bound the number of iterations necessary. Experiments reveal a favourable comparison to prior methods in terms of accuracy and computational complexity.


Linearized and Single-Pass Belief Propagation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

How can we tell when accounts are fake or real in a social network? And how can we tell which accounts belong to liberal, conservative or centrist users? Often, we can answer such questions and label nodes in a network based on the labels of their neighbors and appropriate assumptions of homophily ("birds of a feather flock together") or heterophily ("opposites attract"). One of the most widely used methods for this kind of inference is Belief Propagation (BP) which iteratively propagates the information from a few nodes with explicit labels throughout a network until convergence. One main problem with BP, however, is that there are no known exact guarantees of convergence in graphs with loops. This paper introduces Linearized Belief Propagation (LinBP), a linearization of BP that allows a closed-form solution via intuitive matrix equations and, thus, comes with convergence guarantees. It handles homophily, heterophily, and more general cases that arise in multi-class settings. Plus, it allows a compact implementation in SQL. The paper also introduces Single-pass Belief Propagation (SBP), a "localized" version of LinBP that propagates information across every edge at most once and for which the final class assignments depend only on the nearest labeled neighbors. In addition, SBP allows fast incremental updates in dynamic networks. Our runtime experiments show that LinBP and SBP are orders of magnitude faster than standard


Entrenchment-Based Horn Contraction

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

The AGM framework is the benchmark approach in belief change. Since the framework assumes an underlying logic containing classical Propositional Logic, it can not be applied to systems with a logic weaker than Propositional Logic. To remedy this limitation, several researchers have studied AGM-style contraction and revision under the Horn fragment of Propositional Logic (i.e., Horn logic). In this paper, we contribute to this line of research by investigating the Horn version of the AGM entrenchment-based contraction. The study is challenging as the construction of entrenchment-based contraction refers to arbitrary disjunctions which are not expressible under Horn logic. In order to adapt the construction to Horn logic, we make use of a Horn approximation technique called Horn strengthening. We provide a representation theorem for the newly constructed contraction which we refer to as entrenchment-based Horn contraction. Ideally, contractions defined under Horn logic (i.e., Horn contractions) should be as rational as AGM contraction. We propose the notion of Horn equivalence which intuitively captures the equivalence between Horn contraction and AGM contraction. We show that, under this notion, entrenchment-based Horn contraction is equivalent to a restricted form of entrenchment-based contraction.


Deep Learning-Based Goal Recognition in Open-Ended Digital Games

AAAI Conferences

While many open-ended digital games feature non-linear storylines and multiple solution paths, it is challenging for game developers to create effective game experiences in these settings due to the freedom given to the player. To address these challenges, goal recognition, a computational player-modeling task, has been investigated to enable digital games to dynamically predict playersโ€™ goals. This paper presents a goal recognition framework based on stacked denoising autoencoders, a variant of deep learning. The learned goal recognition models, which are trained from a corpus of player interactions, not only offer improved performance, but also offer the substantial advantage of eliminating the need for labor-intensive feature engineering. An evaluation demonstrates that the deep learning-based goal recognition framework significantly outperforms the previous state-of-the-art goal recognition approach based on Markov logic networks.


Belief revision by examples

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

When integrating information coming from different sources, a distinction is made between revision [13, 5, 14, 28, 6] (new information more reliable than old) and merging [22, 4, 18] (same reliability). More generally, priorities or weights are assigned to the sources to indicate their reliability [26, 27, 30, 7]. Measures and aggregation functions allow for fine-grained policies of integration [16, 11, 18]. Families of operators are then defined, all depending in a way or another from the relative reliability of the sources. The two basic cases of non-iterated revision and merging result from giving priority to the new information or the same to all pieces of information to be incorporated, respectively. The strenght of information sources has been studied in the field of cognitive psychology, where it was determined to depend on the order in which the information is given [32], on the size of the group generating it [25] and other social factors [31]. The first time merging is done, the relative reliability of the pieces of information to be integrated cannot come other than from sources external to the merging process. However, subsequent mergings may then take advantage from the previous results.


Belief Tracking for Planning with Sensing: Width, Complexity and Approximations

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

We consider the problem of belief tracking in a planning setting where states are valuations over a set of variables that are partially observable, and beliefs stand for the sets of states that are possible. While the problem is intractable in the worst case, it has been recently shown that in deterministic conformant and contingent problems, belief tracking is exponential in a width parameter that is often bounded and small. In this work, we extend these results in two ways. First, we introduce a width notion that applies to non-deterministic problems as well, develop a factored belief tracking algorithm that is exponential in the problem width, and show how it applies to existing benchmarks. Second, we introduce a meaningful, powerful, and sound approximation scheme, beam tracking, that is exponential in a smaller parameter, the problem causal width, and has much broader applicability. We illustrate the value of this algorithm over large instances of problems such as Battleship, Minesweeper, and Wumpus, where it yields state-of-the-art performance in real-time.


Defining Relative Likelihood in Partially-Ordered Preferential Structures

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Starting with a likelihood or preference order on worlds, we extend it to a likelihood ordering on sets of worlds in a natural way, and examine the resulting logic. Lewis (1973) earlier considered such a notion of relative likelihood in the context of studying counterfactuals, but he assumed a total preference order on worlds. Complications arise when examining partial orders that are not present for total orders. There are subtleties involving the exact approach to lifting the order on worlds to an order on sets of worlds. In addition, the axiomatization of the logic of relative likelihood in the case of partial orders gives insight into the connection between relative likelihood and default reasoning.


Modular Belief Updates and Confusion about Measures of Certainty in Artificial Intelligence Research

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Over the last decade, there has been growing interest in the use or measures or change in belief for reasoning with uncertainty in artificial intelligence research. An important characteristic of several methodologies that reason with changes in belief or belief updates, is a property that we term modularity. We call updates that satisfy this property modular updates. Whereas probabilistic measures of belief update - which satisfy the modularity property were first discovered in the nineteenth century, knowledge and discussion of these quantities remains obscure in artificial intelligence research. We define modular updates and discuss their inappropriate use in two influential expert systems.