This paper is set to study the applicability of AGM-like operations to probabilistic bases. We focus on the problem of consistency restoration, also called consolidation or contraction by falsity. We aim to identify the reasons why the set of AGM postulates based on discrete operations of deletions and accretions is too coarse to treat finely adjustable probabilistic formulas. We propose new principles that allow one to deal with the consolidation of inconsistent probabilistic bases, presenting a finer method called liftable contraction. Furthermore, we show that existing methods for probabilistic consolidation via distance minimization are particular cases of the methods proposed.

Formalizing dynamics of argumentation has received increasing attention over the last years. While AGM-like representation results for revision of argumentation frameworks (AFs) are now available, similar results for the problem of merging are still missing. In this paper, we close this gap and adapt model-based propositional belief merging to define extension-based merging operators for AFs. We state an axiomatic and a constructive characterization of merging operators through a family of rationality postulates and a representation theorem. Then we exhibit merging operators which satisfy the postulates. In contrast to the case of revision, we observe that obtaining a single framework as result of merging turns out to be a more subtle issue. Finally, we establish links between our new results and previous approaches to merging of AFs, which mainly relied on axioms from Social Choice Theory, but lacked AGM-like representation theorems.

Goal recognition design involves the offline analysis of goal recognition models by formulating measures that assess the ability to perform goal recognition within a model and finding efficient ways to compute and optimize them. In this work we relax the full observability assumption of earlier work by offering a new generalized model for goal recognition design with non-observable actions. A model with partial observability is relevant to goal recognition applications such as assisted cognition and security, which suffer from reduced observability due to sensor malfunction or lack of sufficient budget. In particular we define a worst case distinctiveness (wcd) measure that represents the maximal number of steps an agent can take in a system before the observed portion of his trajectory reveals his objective. We present a method for calculating wcd based on a novel compilation to classical planning and propose a method to improve the design using sensor placement. Our empirical evaluation shows that the proposed solutions effectively compute and improve wcd.

Reciprocal processes are acausal generalizations of Markov processes introduced by Bernstein in 1932. In the literature, a significant amount of attention has been focused on developing dynamical models for reciprocal processes. Recently, probabilistic graphical models for reciprocal processes have been provided. This opens the way to the application of efficient inference algorithms in the machine learning literature to solve the smoothing problem for reciprocal processes. Such algorithms are known to converge if the underlying graph is a tree. This is not the case for a reciprocal process, whose associated graphical model is a single loop network. The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, we introduce belief propagation for Gaussian reciprocal processes. Second, we establish a link between convergence analysis of belief propagation for Gaussian reciprocal processes and stability theory for differentially positive systems.

Plausibility models are Kripke models that agents use to reason about knowledge and belief, both of themselves and of each other. Such models are used to interpret the notions of conditional belief, degrees of belief, and safe belief. The logic of conditional belief contains that modality and also the knowledge modality, and similarly for the logic of degrees of belief and the logic of safe belief. With respect to these logics, plausibility models may contain too much information. A proper notion of bisimulation is required that characterises them. We define that notion of bisimulation and prove the required characterisations: on the class of image-finite and preimage-finite models (with respect to the plausibility relation), two pointed Kripke models are modally equivalent in either of the three logics, if and only if they are bisimilar. As a result, the information content of such a model can be similarly expressed in the logic of conditional belief, or the logic of degrees of belief, or that of safe belief. This, we found a surprising result. Still, that does not mean that the logics are equally expressive: the logics of conditional and degrees of belief are incomparable, the logics of degrees of belief and safe belief are incomparable, while the logic of safe belief is more expressive than the logic of conditional belief. In view of the result on bisimulation characterisation, this is an equally surprising result. We hope our insights may contribute to the growing community of formal epistemology and on the relation between qualitative and quantitative modelling.

Max-product Belief Propagation (BP) is a popular message-passing algorithm for computing a Maximum-A-Posteriori (MAP) assignment over a distribution represented by a Graphical Model (GM). It has been shown that BP can solve a number of combinatorial optimization problems including minimum weight matching, shortest path, network flow and vertex cover under the following common assumption: the respective Linear Programming (LP) relaxation is tight, i.e., no integrality gap is present. However, when LP shows an integrality gap, no model has been known which can be solved systematically via sequential applications of BP. In this paper, we develop the first such algorithm, coined Blossom-BP, for solving the minimum weight matching problem over arbitrary graphs. Each step of the sequential algorithm requires applying BP over a modified graph constructed by contractions and expansions of blossoms, i.e., odd sets of vertices. Our scheme guarantees termination in O(n^2) of BP runs, where n is the number of vertices in the original graph. In essence, the Blossom-BP offers a distributed version of the celebrated Edmonds' Blossom algorithm by jumping at once over many sub-steps with a single BP. Moreover, our result provides an interpretation of the Edmonds' algorithm as a sequence of LPs.

We propose an original particle-based implementation of the Loopy Belief Propagation (LPB) algorithm for pairwise Markov Random Fields (MRF) on a continuous state space. The algorithm constructs adaptively efficient proposal distributions approximating the local beliefs at each note of the MRF. This is achieved by considering proposal distributions in the exponential family whose parameters are updated iterately in an Expectation Propagation (EP) framework. The proposed particle scheme provides consistent estimation of the LBP marginals as the number of particles increases. We demonstrate that it provides more accurate results than the Particle Belief Propagation (PBP) algorithm of Ihler and McAllester (2009) at a fraction of the computational cost and is additionally more robust empirically. The computational complexity of our algorithm at each iteration is quadratic in the number of particles. We also propose an accelerated implementation with sub-quadratic computational complexity which still provides consistent estimates of the loopy BP marginal distributions and performs almost as well as the original procedure.

Max-product Belief Propagation (BP) is a popular message-passing algorithm for computing a Maximum-A-Posteriori (MAP) assignment over a distribution represented by a Graphical Model (GM). It has been shown that BP can solve a number of combinatorial optimization problems including minimum weight matching, shortest path, network flow and vertex cover under the following common assumption: the respective Linear Programming (LP) relaxation is tight, i.e., no integrality gap is present. However, when LP shows an integrality gap, no model has been known which can be solved systematically via sequential applications of BP. In this paper, we develop the first such algorithm, coined Blossom-BP, for solving the minimum weight matching problem over arbitrary graphs. Each step of the sequential algorithm requires applying BP over a modified graph constructed by contractions and expansions of blossoms, i.e., odd sets of vertices. Our scheme guarantees termination in O(n^2) of BP runs, where n is the number of vertices in the original graph. In essence, the Blossom-BP offers a distributed version of the celebrated Edmonds' Blossom algorithm by jumping at once over many sub-steps with a single BP. Moreover, our result provides an interpretation of the Edmonds' algorithm as a sequence of LPs.

Loopy belief propagation (LBP), which is equivalent to the Bethe approximation in statistical mechanics, is a message-passing-type inference method that is widely used to analyze systems based on Markov random fields (MRFs). In this paper, we propose a message-passing-type method to analytically evaluate the quenched average of LBP in random fields by using the replica cluster variation method. The proposed analytical method is applicable to general pair-wise MRFs with random fields whose distributions differ from each other and can give the quenched averages of the Bethe free energies over random fields, which are consistent with numerical results. The order of its computational cost is equivalent to that of standard LBP. In the latter part of this paper, we describe the application of the proposed method to Bayesian image restoration, in which we observed that our theoretical results are in good agreement with the numerical results for natural images.

We consider the iterated belief change that occurs following an alternating sequence of actions and observations. At each instant, an agent has beliefs about the actions that have occurred as well as beliefs about the resulting state of the world. We represent such problems by a sequence of ranking functions, so an agent assigns a quantitative plausibility value to every action and every state at each point in time. The resulting formalism is able to represent fallible belief, erroneous perception, exogenous actions, and failed actions. We illustrate that our framework is a generalization of several existing approaches to belief change, and it appropriately captures the non-elementary interaction between belief update and belief revision.