In this paper, we propose a new algorithm for learning general latent-variable probabilistic graphical models using the techniques of predictive state representation, instrumental variable regression, and reproducing-kernel Hilbert space embeddings of distributions. Under this new learning framework, we first convert latent-variable graphical models into corresponding latent-variable junction trees, and then reduce the hard parameter learning problem into a pipeline of supervised learning problems, whose results will then be used to perform predictive belief propagation over the latent junction tree during the actual inference procedure. We then give proofs of our algorithm's correctness, and demonstrate its good performance in experiments on one synthetic dataset and two real-world tasks from computational biology and computer vision -- classifying DNA splice junctions and recognizing human actions in videos.

Gaussian belief propagation (BP) has been widely used for distributed inference in large-scale networks such as the smart grid, sensor networks, and social networks, where local measurements/observations are scattered over a wide geographical area. One particular case is when two neighboring agents share a common observation. For example, to estimate voltage in the direct current (DC) power flow model, the current measurement over a power line is proportional to the voltage difference between two neighboring buses. When applying the Gaussian BP algorithm to this type of problem, the convergence condition remains an open issue. In this paper, we analyze the convergence properties of Gaussian BP for this pairwise linear Gaussian model. We show analytically that the updating information matrix converges at a geometric rate to a unique positive definite matrix with arbitrary positive semidefinite initial value and further provide the necessary and sufficient convergence condition for the belief mean vector to the optimal estimate.

Bilattice-based triangle provides an elegant algebraic structure for reasoning with vague and uncertain information. But the truth and knowledge ordering of intervals in bilattice-based triangle can not handle repetitive belief revisions which is an essential characteristic of nonmonotonic reasoning. Moreover the ordering induced over the intervals by the bilattice-based triangle is not sometimes intuitive. In this work, we construct an alternative algebraic structure, namely preorder-based triangle and we formulate proper logical connectives for this. It is also demonstrated that Preorder-based triangle serves to be a better alternative to the bilattice-based triangle for reasoning in application areas, that involve nonmonotonic fuzzy reasoning with uncertain information.

Multi-Context Systems (MCS) are a powerful framework for interlinking possibly heterogeneous, autonomous knowledge bases, where information can be exchanged among knowledge bases by designated bridge rules with negation as failure. An acknowledged issue with MCS is inconsistency that arises due to the information exchange. To remedy this problem, inconsistency removal has been proposed in terms of repairs, which modify bridge rules based on suitable notions for diagnosis of inconsistency. In general, multiple diagnoses and repairs do exist; this leaves the user, who arguably may oversee the inconsistency removal, with the task of selecting some repair among all possible ones. To aid in this regard, we extend the MCS framework with preference information for diagnoses, such that undesired diagnoses are filtered out and diagnoses that are most preferred according to a preference ordering are selected. We consider preference information at a generic level and develop meta-reasoning techniques on diagnoses in MCS that can be exploited to reduce preference-based selection of diagnoses to computing ordinary subset-minimal diagnoses in an extended MCS. We describe two meta-reasoning encodings for preference orders: the first is conceptually simple but may incur an exponential blowup. The second is increasing only linearly in size and based on duplicating the original MCS. The latter requires nondeterministic guessing if a subset-minimal among all most preferred diagnoses should be computed. However, a complexity analysis of diagnoses shows that this is worst-case optimal, and that in general, preferred diagnoses have the same complexity as subset-minimal ordinary diagnoses. Furthermore, (subset-minimal) filtered diagnoses and (subset-minimal) ordinary diagnoses also have the same complexity.

Belief Propagation algorithms are instruments used broadly to solve graphical model optimization and statistical inference problems. In the general case of a loopy Graphical Model, Belief Propagation is a heuristic which is quite successful in practice, even though its empirical success, typically, lacks theoretical guarantees. This paper extends the short list of special cases where correctness and/or convergence of a Belief Propagation algorithm is proven. We generalize formulation of Min-Sum Network Flow problem by relaxing the flow conservation (balance) constraints and then proving that the Belief Propagation algorithm converges to the exact result.

But how can we train graphical models on a massive data set? In this paper, we show how to construct coresets--compressed data sets which can be used as proxy for the original data and have provably bounded worst case error--for Gaussian dependency networks (DNs), i.e., cyclic directed graphical models over Gaussians, where the parents of each variable are its Markov blanket. Specifically, we prove that Gaussian DNs admit coresets of size independent of the size of the data set. Unfortunately, this does not extend to DNs over members of the exponential family in general. As we will prove, Poisson DNs do not admit small coresets. Despite this worst-case result, we will provide an argument why our coreset construction for DNs can still work well in practice on count data. To corroborate our theoretical results, we empirically evaluated the resulting Core DNs on real data sets. The results demonstrate significant gains over no or naive sub-sampling, even in the case of count data.

Recent years have seen a growing interest in player modeling to create player-adaptive digital games. As a core player-modeling task, goal recognition aims to recognize players’ latent, high-level intentions in a non-invasive fashion to deliver goal-driven, tailored game experiences. This paper reports on an investigation of multimodal data streams that provide rich evidence about players’ goals. Two data streams, game event traces and player gaze traces, are utilized to devise goal recognition models from a corpus collected from an open-world serious game for science education. Empirical evaluations of 140 players’ trace data suggest that multimodal LSTM-based goal recognition models outperform competitive baselines, including unimodal LSTMs as well as multimodal and unimodal CRFs, with respect to predictive accuracy and early prediction. The results demonstrate that player gaze traces have the potential to significantly enhance goal recognition models’ performance.

The AGM paradigm of belief change studies the dynamics of belief states in light of new information. Finding, or even approximating, those beliefs that are dependent on or relevant to a change is valuable because, for example, it can narrow the set of beliefs considered during belief change operations. A strong intuition in this area is captured by Gärdenforss preservation criterion (GPC), which suggests that formulas independent of a belief change should remain intact. GPC thus allows one to build dependence relations that are linked with belief change. Such dependence relations can in turn be used as a theoretical benchmark against which to evaluate other approximate dependence or relevance relations. Fariñas and Herzig axiomatize a dependence relation with respect to a belief set, and, based on GPC, they characterize the correspondence between AGM contraction functions and dependence relations. In this paper, we introduce base dependence as a relation between formulas with respect to a belief base, and prove a more general characterization that shows the correspondence between kernel contraction and base dependence. At this level of generalization, different types of base dependence emerge, which we show to be a result of possible redundancy in the belief base. We further show that one of these relations that emerge, strong base dependence, is parallel to saturated kernel contraction. We then prove that our latter characterization is a reversible generalization of Fariñas and Herzigs characterization. That is, in the special case when the underlying belief base is deductively closed (i.e., it is a belief set), strong base dependence reduces to dependence, and so do their respective characterizations. Finally, an intriguing feature of Fariñas and Herzigs formalism is that it meets other criteria for dependence, namely, Keyness conjunction criterion for dependence (CCD) and Gärdenforss conjunction criterion for independence (CCI). We prove that our base dependence formalism also meets these criteria. Even more interestingly, we offer a more specific criterion that implies both CCD and CCI, and show our base dependence formalism also meets this new criterion.

Commonsense reasoning is in principle a central problem in artificial intelligence, but it is a very difficult one. One approach that has been pursued since the earliest days of the field has been to encode commonsense knowledge as statements in a logic-based representation language and to implement commonsense reasoning as some form of logical inference. This paper surveys the use of logic-based representations of commonsense knowledge in artificial intelligence research.

Factor graphs are important models for succinctly representing probability distributions in machine learning, coding theory, and statistical physics. Several computational problems, such as computing marginals and partition functions, arise naturally when working with factor graphs. Belief propagation is a widely deployed iterative method for solving these problems. However, despite its significant empirical success, not much is known about the correctness and efficiency of belief propagation. Bethe approximation is an optimization-based framework for approximating partition functions. While it is known that the stationary points of the Bethe approximation coincide with the fixed points of belief propagation, in general, the relation between the Bethe approximation and the partition function is not well understood. It has been observed that for a few classes of factor graphs, the Bethe approximation always gives a lower bound to the partition function, which distinguishes them from the general case, where neither a lower bound, nor an upper bound holds universally. This has been rigorously proved for permanents and for attractive graphical models. Here we consider bipartite normal factor graphs and show that if the local constraints satisfy a certain analytic property, the Bethe approximation is a lower bound to the partition function. We arrive at this result by viewing factor graphs through the lens of polynomials. In this process, we reformulate the Bethe approximation as a polynomial optimization problem. Our sufficient condition for the lower bound property to hold is inspired by recent developments in the theory of real stable polynomials. We believe that this way of viewing factor graphs and its connection to real stability might lead to a better understanding of belief propagation and factor graphs in general.