Goal recognition is the problem of determining an agent's intent by observing her behaviour. Contemporary solutions for general task-planning relate the probability of a goal to the cost of reaching it. We adapt this approach to goal recognition in the strict context of path-planning. We show (1) that a simpler formula provides an identical result to current state-of-the-art in less than half the time under all but one set of conditions. Further, we prove (2) that the probability distribution based on this technique is independent of an agent's past behaviour and present a revised formula that achieves goal recognition by reference to the agent's starting point and current location only. Building on this, we demonstrate (3) that a Radius of Maximum Probability (i.e., the distance from a goal within which that goal is guaranteed to be the most probable) can be calculated from relative cost-distances between the candidate goals and a start location, without needing to calculate any actual probabilities. In this extended version of earlier work, we generalise our framework to the continuous domain and discuss our results, including the conditions under which our findings can be generalised back to goal recognition in general task-planning.

AGM contraction and revision assume an underlying logic that contains propositional logic. Consequently, this assumption excludes many useful logics such as the Horn fragment of propositional logic and most description logics. Our goal in this paper is to generalise AGM contraction and revision to (near-)arbitrary fragments of classical first-order logic. To this end, we first define a very general logic that captures these fragments. In so doing, we make the modest assumptions that a logic contains conjunction and that information is expressed by closed formulas or sentences. The resulting logic is called first-order conjunctive logic or FC logic for short. We then take as the point of departure the AGM approach of constructing contraction functions through epistemic entrenchment, that is the entrenchment-based contraction. We redefine entrenchment-based contraction in ways that apply to any FC logic, which we call FC contraction. We prove a representation theorem showing its compliance with all the AGM contraction postulates except for the controversial recovery postulate. We also give methods for constructing revision functions through epistemic entrenchment which we call FC revision; which also apply to any FC logic. We show that if the underlying FC logic contains tautologies then FC revision complies with all the AGM revision postulates. Finally, in the context of FC logic, we provide three methods for generating revision functions via a variant of the Levi Identity, which we call contraction, withdrawal and cut generated revision, and explore the notion of revision equivalence. We show that withdrawal and cut generated revision coincide with FC revision and so does contraction generated revision under a finiteness condition.

We propose a variant of iterated belief revision designed for settings with limited computational resources, such as mobile autonomous robots. The proposed memory architecture---called the {\em universal memory architecture} (UMA)---maintains an epistemic state in the form of a system of default rules similar to those studied by Pearl and by Goldszmidt and Pearl (systems $Z$ and $Z^+$). A duality between the category of UMA representations and the category of the corresponding model spaces, extending the Sageev-Roller duality between discrete poc sets and discrete median algebras provides a two-way dictionary from inference to geometry, leading to immense savings in computation, at a cost in the quality of representation that can be quantified in terms of topological invariants. Moreover, the same framework naturally enables comparisons between different model spaces, making it possible to analyze the deficiencies of one model space in comparison to others. This paper develops the formalism underlying UMA, analyzes the complexity of maintenance and inference operations in UMA, and presents some learning guarantees for different UMA-based learners. Finally, we present simulation results to illustrate the viability of the approach, and close with a discussion of the strengths, weaknesses, and potential development of UMA-based learners.

Bayesian inference as applied in a legal setting is about belief transfer and involves a plurality of agents and communication protocols. A forensic expert (FE) may communicate to a trier of fact (TOF) first its value of a certain likelihood ratio with respect to FE's belief state as represented by a probability function on FE's proposition space. Subsequently FE communicates its recently acquired confirmation that a certain evidence proposition is true. Then TOF performs likelihood ratio transfer mediated reasoning thereby revising their own belief state. The logical principles involved in likelihood transfer mediated reasoning are discussed in a setting where probabilistic arithmetic is done within a meadow, and with Adams conditioning placed in a central role.

We introduce a new semantics for a logic of explicit and implicit beliefs based on the concept of multi-agent belief base. Differently from existing Kripke-style semantics for epistemic logic in which the notions of possible world and doxastic/epistemic alternative are primitive, in our semantics they are non-primitive but are defined from the concept of belief base. We provide a complete axiomatization and prove decidability for our logic via a finite model argument. We also provide a polynomial embedding of our logic into Fagin & Halpern's logic of general awareness and establish a complexity result for our logic via the embedding.

We propose self-guided belief propagation (SBP) that modifies belief propagation (BP) by incorporating the pairwise potentials only gradually. This homotopy continuation method converges to a unique solution and increases the accuracy without increasing the computational burden. We apply SBP to grid graphs, complete graphs, and random graphs with random Ising potentials and show that: (i) SBP is superior in terms of accuracy whenever BP converges, and (ii) SBP obtains a unique, stable, and accurate solution whenever BP does not converge. We further provide a formal analysis to demonstrate that SBP obtains the global optimum of the Bethe approximation for attractive models with unidirectional fields.

There is huge demand for robots to work alongside humans in heterogeneous teams. To achieve a high degree of fluidity, robots must be able to (1) recognize their human co-worker's intent, and (2) adapt to this intent accordingly, providing useful aid as a teammate. The literature to date has made great progress in these two areas -- recognition and adaptation -- but largely as separate research activities. In this work, we present a unified approach to these two problems, in which recognition and adaptation occur concurrently and holistically within the same framework. We introduce Pike, an executive for human-robot teams, that allows the robot to continuously and concurrently reason about what a human is doing as execution proceeds, as well as adapt appropriately. The result is a mixed-initiative execution where humans and robots interact fluidly to complete task goals.Key to our approach is our task model: a contingent, temporally-flexible team-plan with explicit choices for both the human and robot. This allows a single set of algorithms to find implicit constraints between sets of choices for the human and robot (as determined via causal link analysis and temporal reasoning), narrowing the possible decisions a rational human would take (hence achieving intent recognition) as well as the possible actions a robot could consistently take (hence achieving adaptation). Pike makes choices based on the preconditions of actions in the plan, temporal constraints, unanticipated disturbances, and choices made previously (by either agent).Innovations of this work include (1) a framework for concurrent intent recognition and adaptation for contingent, temporally-flexible plans, (2) the generalization of causal links for contingent, temporally-flexible plans along with related extraction algorithms, and (3) extensions to a state-of-the-art dynamic execution system to utilize these causal links for decision making.

In this Book we argue that the fruitful interaction of computer vision and belief calculus is capable of stimulating significant advances in both fields. From a methodological point of view, novel theoretical results concerning the geometric and algebraic properties of belief functions as mathematical objects are illustrated and discussed in Part II, with a focus on both a perspective 'geometric approach' to uncertainty and an algebraic solution to the issue of conflicting evidence. In Part III we show how these theoretical developments arise from important computer vision problems (such as articulated object tracking, data association and object pose estimation) to which, in turn, the evidential formalism is able to provide interesting new solutions. Finally, some initial steps towards a generalization of the notion of total probability to belief functions are taken, in the perspective of endowing the theory of evidence with a complete battery of estimation and inference tools to the benefit of all scientists and practitioners.

Merging beliefs requires the plausibility of the sources of the information to be merged. They are typically assumed equally reliable when nothing suggests otherwise. A recent line of research has spun from the idea of deriving this information from the revision process itself. In particular, the history of previous revisions and previous merging examples provide information for performing subsequent merging operations. Yet, no examples or previous revisions may be available. In spite of the apparent lack of information, something can still be inferred by a try-and-check approach: a relative reliability ordering is assumed, the sources are integrated according to it and the result is compared with the original information. The final check may contradict the original ordering, like when the result of merging implies the negation of a formula coming from a source initially assumed reliable, or it implies a formula coming from a source assumed unreliable. In such cases, the reliability ordering assumed in the first place can be excluded from consideration. Such a scenario is proved real under the classifications of source reliability and definitions of belief integration considered in this article: sources divided in two, three or multiple reliability classes; integration is mostly by maximal consistent subsets but also weighted distance is considered.

Among the many approaches for reasoning about degrees of belief in the presence of noisy sensing and acting, the logical account proposed by Bacchus, Halpern, and Levesque is perhaps the most expressive. While their formalism is quite general, it is restricted to fluents whose values are drawn from discrete finite domains, as opposed to the continuous domains seen in many robotic applications. In this work, we show how this limitation in that approach can be lifted. By dealing seamlessly with both discrete distributions and continuous densities within a rich theory of action, we provide a very general logical specification of how belief should change after acting and sensing in complex noisy domains.