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 Belief Revision


A Graphical Transformation for Belief Propagation: Maximum Weight Matchings and Odd-Sized Cycles

Neural Information Processing Systems

Max-product'belief propagation' (BP) is a popular distributed heuristic for finding the Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) assignment in a joint probability distribution represented by a Graphical Model (GM). It was recently shown that BP converges to the correct MAP assignment for a class of loopy GMs with the following common feature: the Linear Programming (LP) relaxation to the MAP problem is tight (has no integrality gap). Unfortunately, tightness of the LP relaxation does not, in general, guarantee convergence and correctness of the BP algorithm. The failure of BP in such cases motivates reverse engineering a solution – namely, given a tight LP, can we design a'good' BP algorithm. We prove that the algorithm converges to the correct optimum if the respective LP relaxation, which may include inequalities associated with non-intersecting odd-sized cycles, is tight.


Binary to Bushy: Bayesian Hierarchical Clustering with the Beta Coalescent

Neural Information Processing Systems

Discovering hierarchical regularities in data is a key problem in interacting with large datasets, modeling cognition, and encoding knowledge. A previous Bayesian solution---Kingman's coalescent---provides a convenient probabilistic model for data represented as a binary tree. Unfortunately, this is inappropriate for data better described by bushier trees. We generalize an existing belief propagation framework of Kingman's coalescent to the beta coalescent, which models a wider range of tree structures. Because of the complex combinatorial search over possible structures, we develop new sampling schemes using sequential Monte Carlo and Dirichlet process mixture models, which render inference efficient and tractable.


Expectation Particle Belief Propagation

Neural Information Processing Systems

We propose an original particle-based implementation of the Loopy Belief Propagation (LPB) algorithm for pairwise Markov Random Fields (MRF) on a continuous state space. This is achieved by considering proposal distributions in the exponential family whose parameters are updated iterately in an Expectation Propagation (EP) framework. The proposed particle scheme provides consistent estimation of the LBP marginals as the number of particles increases. We demonstrate that it provides more accurate results than the Particle Belief Propagation (PBP) algorithm of Ihler and McAllester (2009) at a fraction of the computational cost and is additionally more robust empirically. The computational complexity of our algorithm at each iteration is quadratic in the number of particles.


Constraints Based Convex Belief Propagation

Neural Information Processing Systems

Inference in Markov random fields subject to consistency structure is a fundamental problem that arises in many real-life applications. In order to enforce consistency, classical approaches utilize consistency potentials or encode constraints over feasible instances. Unfortunately this comes at the price of a serious computational bottleneck. In this paper we suggest to tackle consistency by incorporating constraints on beliefs. This permits derivation of a closed-form message-passing algorithm which we refer to as the Constraints Based Convex Belief Propagation (CBCBP).


Minimum Weight Perfect Matching via Blossom Belief Propagation

Neural Information Processing Systems

Max-product Belief Propagation (BP) is a popular message-passing algorithm for computing a Maximum-A-Posteriori (MAP) assignment over a distribution represented by a Graphical Model (GM). It has been shown that BP can solve a number of combinatorial optimization problems including minimum weight matching, shortest path, network flow and vertex cover under the following common assumption: the respective Linear Programming (LP) relaxation is tight, i.e., no integrality gap is present. However, when LP shows an integrality gap, no model has been known which can be solved systematically via sequential applications of BP. In this paper, we develop the first such algorithm, coined Blossom-BP, for solving the minimum weight matching problem over arbitrary graphs. Each step of the sequential algorithm requires applying BP over a modified graph constructed by contractions and expansions of blossoms, i.e., odd sets of vertices.


Achieving the KS threshold in the general stochastic block model with linearized acyclic belief propagation

Neural Information Processing Systems

The stochastic block model (SBM) has long been studied in machine learning and network science as a canonical model for clustering and community detection. In the recent years, new developments have demonstrated the presence of threshold phenomena for this model, which have set new challenges for algorithms. This was proved for two communities, but remained open from three communities. We prove this conjecture here, obtaining a more general result that applies to arbitrary SBMs with linear size communities. The developed algorithm is a linearized acyclic belief propagation (ABP) algorithm, which mitigates the effects of cycles while provably achieving the KS threshold in $O(n \ln n)$ time.


The Temporal Dynamics of Belief-based Updating of Epistemic Trust: Light at the End of the Tunnel?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We start with the distinction of outcome- and belief-based Bayesian models of the sequential update of agents' beliefs and subjective reliability of sources (trust). We then focus on discussing the influential Bayesian model of belief-based trust update by Eric Olsson, which models dichotomic events and explicitly represents anti-reliability. After sketching some disastrous recent results for this perhaps most promising model of belief update, we show new simulation results for the temporal dynamics of learning belief with and without trust update and with and without communication. The results seem to shed at least a somewhat more positive light on the communicating-and-trust-updating agents. This may be a light at the end of the tunnel of belief-based models of trust updating, but the interpretation of the clear findings is much less clear.


Bringing Belief Base Change into Dynamic Epistemic Logic

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

AGM's belief revision is one of the main paradigms in the study of belief change operations. In this context, belief bases (prioritised bases) have been primarily used to specify the agent's belief state. While the connection of iterated AGM-like operations and their encoding in dynamic epistemic logics have been studied before, few works considered how well-known postulates from iterated belief revision theory can be characterised by means of belief bases and their counterpart in dynamic epistemic logic. Particularly, it has been shown that some postulates can be characterised through transformations in priority graphs, while others may not be represented that way. This work investigates changes in the semantics of Dynamic Preference Logic that give rise to an appropriate syntactic representation for its models that allow us to represent and reason about iterated belief base change in this logic.


A Semantic Characterization ASP Base Revision

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

Base revision in classical logic is done by the removal of formulas. Exploiting the non-monotonicity of ASP allows one to propose other revision strategies, namely addition strategy or removal and/or addition strategy. These strategies allow one to define families of rule-based revision operators. The paper presents a semantic characterization of these families of revision operators in terms of answer sets. This semantic characterization allows for equivalently considering the evolution of syntactic logic programs and the evolution of their semantic content. It then studies the logical properties of the proposed operators and gives complexity results.


Full Characterization of Parikh's Relevance-Sensitive Axiom for Belief Revision

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

In this article, the epistemic-entrenchment and partial-meet characterizations of Parikh's relevance-sensitive axiom for belief revision, known as axiom (P), are provided. In short, axiom (P) states that, if a belief set $K$ can be divided into two disjoint compartments, and the new information $\varphi$ relates only to the first compartment, then the revision of $K$ by $\varphi$ should not affect the second compartment. Accordingly, we identify the subclass of epistemic-entrenchment and that of selection-function preorders, inducing AGM revision functions that satisfy axiom (P). Hence, together with the faithful-preorders characterization of (P) that has already been provided, Parikh's axiom is fully characterized in terms of all popular constructive models of Belief Revision. Since the notions of relevance and local change are inherent in almost all intellectual activity, the completion of the constructive view of (P) has a significant impact on many theoretical, as well as applied, domains of Artificial Intelligence.