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 Belief Revision




Zero-shot reasoning for simulating scholarly peer-review

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The scholarly publishing ecosystem faces a dual crisis of unmanageable submission volumes and unregulated AI, creating an urgent need for new governance models to safeguard scientific integrity. The traditional human-only peer review regime lacks a scalable, objective benchmark, making editorial processes opaque and difficult to audit. Here we investigate a deterministic simulation framework that provides the first stable, evidence-based standard for evaluating AI-generated peer review reports. Analyzing 352 peer-review simulation reports, we identify consistent system state indicators that demonstrate its reliability. First, the system is able to simulate calibrated editorial judgment, with 'Revise' decisions consistently forming the majority outcome (>50%) across all disciplines, while 'Reject' rates dynamically adapt to field-specific norms, rising to 45% in Health Sciences. Second, it maintains unwavering procedural integrity, enforcing a stable 29% evidence-anchoring compliance rate that remains invariant across diverse review tasks and scientific domains. These findings demonstrate a system that is predictably rule-bound, mitigating the stochasticity of generative AI. For the scientific community, this provides a transparent tool to ensure fairness; for publishing strategists, it offers a scalable instrument for auditing workflows, managing integrity risks, and implementing evidence-based governance. The framework repositions AI as an essential component of institutional accountability, providing the critical infrastructure to maintain trust in scholarly communication.




Binary to Bushy: Bayesian Hierarchical Clustering with the Beta Coalescent

Neural Information Processing Systems

Discovering hierarchical regularities in data is a key problem in interacting with large datasets, modeling cognition, and encoding knowledge. A previous Bayesian solution---Kingman's coalescent---provides a convenient probabilistic model for data represented as a binary tree. Unfortunately, this is inappropriate for data better described by bushier trees. We generalize an existing belief propagation framework of Kingman's coalescent to the beta coalescent, which models a wider range of tree structures. Because of the complex combinatorial search over possible structures, we develop new sampling schemes using sequential Monte Carlo and Dirichlet process mixture models, which render inference efficient and tractable.


Online Dynamic Goal Recognition in Gym Environments

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Goal Recognition (GR) is the task of inferring an agent's intended goal from partial observations of its behavior, typically in an online and one-shot setting. Despite recent advances in model-free GR, particularly in applications such as human-robot interaction, surveillance, and assistive systems, the field remains fragmented due to inconsistencies in benchmarks, domains, and evaluation protocols. To address this, we introduce gr-libs (https://github.com/MatanShamir1/gr_libs) and gr-envs (https://github.com/MatanShamir1/gr_envs), two complementary open-source frameworks that support the development, evaluation, and comparison of GR algorithms in Gym-compatible environments. gr-libs includes modular implementations of MDP-based GR baselines, diagnostic tools, and evaluation utilities. gr-envs provides a curated suite of environments adapted for dynamic and goal-directed behavior, along with wrappers that ensure compatibility with standard reinforcement learning toolkits. Together, these libraries offer a standardized, extensible, and reproducible platform for advancing GR research. Both packages are open-source and available on GitHub and PyPI.