Bayesian inference as applied in a legal setting is about belief transfer and involves a plurality of agents and communication protocols. A forensic expert (FE) may communicate to a trier of fact (TOF) first its value of a certain likelihood ratio with respect to FE's belief state as represented by a probability function on FE's proposition space. Subsequently FE communicates its recently acquired confirmation that a certain evidence proposition is true. Then TOF performs likelihood ratio transfer mediated reasoning thereby revising their own belief state. The logical principles involved in likelihood transfer mediated reasoning are discussed in a setting where probabilistic arithmetic is done within a meadow, and with Adams conditioning placed in a central role.

We introduce a new semantics for a logic of explicit and implicit beliefs based on the concept of multi-agent belief base. Differently from existing Kripke-style semantics for epistemic logic in which the notions of possible world and doxastic/epistemic alternative are primitive, in our semantics they are non-primitive but are defined from the concept of belief base. We provide a complete axiomatization and prove decidability for our logic via a finite model argument. We also provide a polynomial embedding of our logic into Fagin & Halpern's logic of general awareness and establish a complexity result for our logic via the embedding.

We propose self-guided belief propagation (SBP) that modifies belief propagation (BP) by incorporating the pairwise potentials only gradually. This homotopy continuation method converges to a unique solution and increases the accuracy without increasing the computational burden. We apply SBP to grid graphs, complete graphs, and random graphs with random Ising potentials and show that: (i) SBP is superior in terms of accuracy whenever BP converges, and (ii) SBP obtains a unique, stable, and accurate solution whenever BP does not converge. We further provide a formal analysis to demonstrate that SBP obtains the global optimum of the Bethe approximation for attractive models with unidirectional fields.

There is huge demand for robots to work alongside humans in heterogeneous teams. To achieve a high degree of fluidity, robots must be able to (1) recognize their human co-worker's intent, and (2) adapt to this intent accordingly, providing useful aid as a teammate. The literature to date has made great progress in these two areas -- recognition and adaptation -- but largely as separate research activities. In this work, we present a unified approach to these two problems, in which recognition and adaptation occur concurrently and holistically within the same framework. We introduce Pike, an executive for human-robot teams, that allows the robot to continuously and concurrently reason about what a human is doing as execution proceeds, as well as adapt appropriately. The result is a mixed-initiative execution where humans and robots interact fluidly to complete task goals.Key to our approach is our task model: a contingent, temporally-flexible team-plan with explicit choices for both the human and robot. This allows a single set of algorithms to find implicit constraints between sets of choices for the human and robot (as determined via causal link analysis and temporal reasoning), narrowing the possible decisions a rational human would take (hence achieving intent recognition) as well as the possible actions a robot could consistently take (hence achieving adaptation). Pike makes choices based on the preconditions of actions in the plan, temporal constraints, unanticipated disturbances, and choices made previously (by either agent).Innovations of this work include (1) a framework for concurrent intent recognition and adaptation for contingent, temporally-flexible plans, (2) the generalization of causal links for contingent, temporally-flexible plans along with related extraction algorithms, and (3) extensions to a state-of-the-art dynamic execution system to utilize these causal links for decision making.

In this Book we argue that the fruitful interaction of computer vision and belief calculus is capable of stimulating significant advances in both fields. From a methodological point of view, novel theoretical results concerning the geometric and algebraic properties of belief functions as mathematical objects are illustrated and discussed in Part II, with a focus on both a perspective 'geometric approach' to uncertainty and an algebraic solution to the issue of conflicting evidence. In Part III we show how these theoretical developments arise from important computer vision problems (such as articulated object tracking, data association and object pose estimation) to which, in turn, the evidential formalism is able to provide interesting new solutions. Finally, some initial steps towards a generalization of the notion of total probability to belief functions are taken, in the perspective of endowing the theory of evidence with a complete battery of estimation and inference tools to the benefit of all scientists and practitioners.

Merging beliefs requires the plausibility of the sources of the information to be merged. They are typically assumed equally reliable when nothing suggests otherwise. A recent line of research has spun from the idea of deriving this information from the revision process itself. In particular, the history of previous revisions and previous merging examples provide information for performing subsequent merging operations. Yet, no examples or previous revisions may be available. In spite of the apparent lack of information, something can still be inferred by a try-and-check approach: a relative reliability ordering is assumed, the sources are integrated according to it and the result is compared with the original information. The final check may contradict the original ordering, like when the result of merging implies the negation of a formula coming from a source initially assumed reliable, or it implies a formula coming from a source assumed unreliable. In such cases, the reliability ordering assumed in the first place can be excluded from consideration. Such a scenario is proved real under the classifications of source reliability and definitions of belief integration considered in this article: sources divided in two, three or multiple reliability classes; integration is mostly by maximal consistent subsets but also weighted distance is considered.

Among the many approaches for reasoning about degrees of belief in the presence of noisy sensing and acting, the logical account proposed by Bacchus, Halpern, and Levesque is perhaps the most expressive. While their formalism is quite general, it is restricted to fluents whose values are drawn from discrete finite domains, as opposed to the continuous domains seen in many robotic applications. In this work, we show how this limitation in that approach can be lifted. By dealing seamlessly with both discrete distributions and continuous densities within a rich theory of action, we provide a very general logical specification of how belief should change after acting and sensing in complex noisy domains.

A network embedding consists of a vector representation for each node in the network. Network embeddings have shown their usefulness in node classification and visualization in many real-world application domains, such as social networks and web networks. While directed networks with text associated with each node, such as citation networks and software package dependency networks, are commonplace, to the best of our knowledge, their embeddings have not been specifically studied. In this paper, we create PCTADW-1 and PCTADW-2, two algorithms based on NNs that learn embeddings of directed networks with text associated with each node. We create two new labeled directed networks with text-associated node: The package dependency networks in two popular GNU/Linux distributions, Debian and Fedora. We experimentally demonstrate that the embeddings produced by our NNs resulted in node classification with better quality than those of various baselines on these two networks. We observe that there exist systematic presence of analogies (similar to those in word embeddings) in the network embeddings of software package dependency networks. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that such a systematic presence of analogies is observed in network and document embeddings. This may potentially open up a new venue for better understanding networks and documents algorithmically using their embeddings as well as for better human understanding of network and document embeddings.

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We introduce a novel class of adjustment rules for a collection of beliefs. This is an extension of Lewis' imaging to absorb probabilistic evidence in generalized settings. Unlike standard tools for belief revision, our proposal may be used when information is inconsistent with an agent's belief base. We show that the functionals we introduce are based on the imaginary counterpart of probability kinematics for standard belief revision, and prove that, under certain conditions, all standard postulates for belief revision are satisfied.