Algorithmic solutions for multi-object tracking (MOT) are a key enabler for applications in autonomous navigation and applied ocean sciences. State-of-the-art MOT methods fully rely on a statistical model and typically use preprocessed sensor data as measurements. In particular, measurements are produced by a detector that extracts potential object locations from the raw sensor data collected for a discrete time step. This preparatory processing step reduces data flow and computational complexity but may result in a loss of information. State-of-the-art Bayesian MOT methods that are based on belief propagation (BP) systematically exploit graph structures of the statistical model to reduce computational complexity and improve scalability. However, as a fully model-based approach, BP can only provide suboptimal estimates when there is a mismatch between the statistical model and the true data-generating process. Existing BP-based MOT methods can further only make use of preprocessed measurements. In this paper, we introduce a variant of BP that combines model-based with data-driven MOT. The proposed neural enhanced belief propagation (NEBP) method complements the statistical model of BP by information learned from raw sensor data. This approach conjectures that the learned information can reduce model mismatch and thus improve data association and false alarm rejection. Our NEBP method improves tracking performance compared to model-based methods. At the same time, it inherits the advantages of BP-based MOT, i.e., it scales only quadratically in the number of objects, and it can thus generate and maintain a large number of object tracks. We evaluate the performance of our NEBP approach for MOT on the nuScenes autonomous driving dataset and demonstrate that it has state-of-the-art performance.

This paper proposes a new 3D gas distribution mapping technique based on the local message passing of Gaussian belief propagation that is capable of resolving in real time, concentration estimates in 3D space whilst accounting for the obstacle information within the scenario, the first of its kind in the literature. The gas mapping problem is formulated as a 3D factor graph of Gaussian potentials, the connections of which are conditioned on local occupancy values. The Gaussian belief propagation framework is introduced as the solver and a new hybrid message scheduler is introduced to increase the rate of convergence. The factor graph problem is then redesigned as a dynamically expanding inference task, coupling the information of consecutive gas measurements with local spatial structure obtained by the robot. The proposed algorithm is compared to the state of the art methods in 2D and 3D simulations and is found to resolve distribution maps orders of magnitude quicker than typical direct solvers. The proposed framework is then deployed for the first time onboard a ground robot in a 3D mapping and exploration task. The system is shown to be able to resolve multiple sensor inputs and output high resolution 3D gas distribution maps in a GPS denied cluttered scenario in real time. This online inference of complicated plume structures provides a new layer of contextual information over its 2D counterparts and enables autonomous systems to take advantage of real time estimates to inform potential next best sampling locations.

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In automated planning, recognising the goal of an agent from a trace of observations is an important task with many applications. The state-of-the-art approaches to goal recognition rely on the application of planning techniques, which requires a model of the domain actions and of the initial domain state (written, e.g., in PDDL). We study an alternative approach where goal recognition is formulated as a classification task addressed by machine learning. Our approach, called GRNet, is primarily aimed at making goal recognition more accurate as well as faster by learning how to solve it in a given domain. Given a planning domain specified by a set of propositions and a set of action names, the goal classification instances in the domain are solved by a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN). A run of the RNN processes a trace of observed actions to compute how likely it is that each domain proposition is part of the agent's goal, for the problem instance under considerations. These predictions are then aggregated to choose one of the candidate goals. The only information required as input of the trained RNN is a trace of action labels, each one indicating just the name of an observed action. An experimental analysis confirms that \our achieves good performance in terms of both goal classification accuracy and runtime, obtaining better performance w.r.t. a state-of-the-art goal recognition system over the considered benchmarks.

We propose to leverage news discourse profiling to model document-level temporal structures for building temporal dependency graphs. Our key observation is that the functional roles of sentences used for profiling news discourse signify different time frames relevant to a news story and can, therefore, help to recover the global temporal structure of a document. Our analyses and experiments with the widely used knowledge distillation technique show that discourse profiling effectively identifies distant inter-sentence event and (or) time expression pairs that are temporally related and otherwise difficult to locate.

Improved state space models, such as Recurrent State Space Models (RSSMs), are a key factor behind recent advances in model-based reinforcement learning (RL). Yet, despite their empirical success, many of the underlying design choices are not well understood. We show that RSSMs use a suboptimal inference scheme and that models trained using this inference overestimate the aleatoric uncertainty of the ground truth system. We find this overestimation implicitly regularizes RSSMs and allows them to succeed in model-based RL. We postulate that this implicit regularization fulfills the same functionality as explicitly modeling epistemic uncertainty, which is crucial for many other model-based RL approaches. Yet, overestimating aleatoric uncertainty can also impair performance in cases where accurately estimating it matters, e.g., when we have to deal with occlusions, missing observations, or fusing sensor modalities at different frequencies. Moreover, the implicit regularization is a side-effect of the inference scheme and not the result of a rigorous, principled formulation, which renders analyzing or improving RSSMs difficult. Thus, we propose an alternative approach building on well-understood components for modeling aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty, dubbed Variational Recurrent Kalman Network (VRKN). This approach uses Kalman updates for exact smoothing inference in a latent space and Monte Carlo Dropout to model epistemic uncertainty. Due to the Kalman updates, the VRKN can naturally handle missing observations or sensor fusion problems with varying numbers of observations per time step. Our experiments show that using the VRKN instead of the RSSM improves performance in tasks where appropriately capturing aleatoric uncertainty is crucial while matching it in the deterministic standard benchmarks.

While a large body of work has scrutinized the meaning of conditional sentences, considerably less attention has been paid to formal models of their pragmatic use and interpretation. Here, we take a probabilistic approach to pragmatic reasoning about indicative conditionals which flexibly integrates gradient beliefs about richly structured world states. We model listeners' update of their prior beliefs about the causal structure of the world and the joint probabilities of the consequent and antecedent based on assumptions about the speaker's utterance production protocol. We show that, when supplied with natural contextual assumptions, our model uniformly explains a number of inferences attested in the literature, including epistemic inferences, conditional perfection and the dependency between antecedent and consequent of a conditional. We argue that this approach also helps explain three puzzles introduced by Douven (2012) about updating with conditionals: depending on the utterance context, the listener's belief in the antecedent may increase, decrease or remain unchanged.

The two most important algorithms in artificial intelligence are backpropagation and belief propagation. In spite of their importance, the connection between them is poorly characterized. We show that when an input to backpropagation is converted into an input to belief propagation so that (loopy) belief propagation can be run on it, then the result of belief propagation encodes the result of backpropagation; thus backpropagation is recovered as a special case of belief propagation. In other words, we prove for apparently the first time that belief propagation generalizes backpropagation. Our analysis is a theoretical contribution, which we motivate with the expectation that it might reconcile our understandings of each of these algorithms, and serve as a guide to engineering researchers seeking to improve the behavior of systems that use one or the other.

A highly autonomous system (HAS) has to assess the situation it is in and derive beliefs, based on which, it decides what to do next. The beliefs are not solely based on the observations the HAS has made so far, but also on general insights about the world, in which the HAS operates. These insights have either been built in the HAS during design or are provided by trusted sources during its mission. Although its beliefs may be imprecise and might bear flaws, the HAS will have to extrapolate the possible futures in order to evaluate the consequences of its actions and then take its decisions autonomously. In this paper, we formalize an autonomous decisive system as a system that always chooses actions that it currently believes are the best. We show that it can be checked whether an autonomous decisive system can be built given an application domain, the dynamically changing knowledge base and a list of LTL mission goals. We moreover can synthesize a belief formation for an autonomous decisive system. For the formal characterization, we use a doxastic framework for safety-critical HASs where the belief formation supports the HAS's extrapolation.

Belief Propagation (BP) is an important message-passing algorithm for various reasoning tasks over graphical models, including solving the Constraint Optimization Problems (COPs). It has been shown that BP can achieve state-of-the-art performance on various benchmarks by mixing old and new messages before sending the new one, i.e., damping. However, existing methods of tuning a static damping factor for BP not only are laborious but also harm their performance. Moreover, existing BP algorithms treat each variable node's neighbors equally when composing a new message, which also limits their exploration ability. To address these issues, we seamlessly integrate BP, Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs), and Graph Attention Networks (GATs) within the message-passing framework to reason about dynamic weights and damping factors for composing new BP messages. Our model, Deep Attentive Belief Propagation (DABP), takes the factor graph and the BP messages in each iteration as the input and infers the optimal weights and damping factors through GRUs and GATs, followed by a multi-head attention layer. Furthermore, unlike existing neural-based BP variants, we propose a novel self-supervised learning algorithm for DABP with a smoothed solution cost, which does not require expensive training labels and also avoids the common out-of-distribution issue through efficient online learning. Extensive experiments show that our model significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines.