Exact inference of marginals in probabilistic graphical models (PGM) is known to be intractable, necessitating the use of approximate methods. Most of the existing variational techniques perform iterative message passing in loopy graphs which is slow to converge for many benchmarks. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm for marginal inference that is based on the incremental build-infer-approximate (IBIA) paradigm. Our algorithm converts the PGM into a sequence of linked clique tree forests (SLCTF) with bounded clique sizes, and then uses a heuristic belief update algorithm to infer the marginals. For the special case of Bayesian networks, we show that if the incremental build step in IBIA uses the topological order of variables then (a) the prior marginals are consistent in all CTFs in the SLCTF and (b) the posterior marginals are consistent once all evidence variables are added to the SLCTF. In our approach, the belief propagation step is non-iterative and the accuracy-complexity trade-off is controlled using user-defined clique size bounds. Results for several benchmark sets from recent UAI competitions show that our method gives either better or comparable accuracy than existing variational and sampling based methods, with smaller runtimes.

In a practical dialogue system, users may input out-of-domain (OOD) queries. The Generalized Intent Discovery (GID) task aims to discover OOD intents from OOD queries and extend them to the in-domain (IND) classifier. However, GID only considers one stage of OOD learning, and needs to utilize the data in all previous stages for joint training, which limits its wide application in reality. In this paper, we introduce a new task, Continual Generalized Intent Discovery (CGID), which aims to continuously and automatically discover OOD intents from dynamic OOD data streams and then incrementally add them to the classifier with almost no previous data, thus moving towards dynamic intent recognition in an open world. Next, we propose a method called Prototype-guided Learning with Replay and Distillation (PLRD) for CGID, which bootstraps new intent discovery through class prototypes and balances new and old intents through data replay and feature distillation. Finally, we conduct detailed experiments and analysis to verify the effectiveness of PLRD and understand the key challenges of CGID for future research.

Fox News Flash top headlines are here. Check out what's clicking on Foxnews.com. The oldest direct evidence of human presence in the Americas are likely fossilized human footprints found in New Mexico, challenging once-conventional wisdom regarding humans migrating to the New World from Russia roughly 15,000 years ago, new research confirms. The new discovery suggests that the first people actually arrived in the Americas much earlier than previously believed. According to research published Thursday in the journal Science, footprints discovered at the edge of an ancient lake bed in White Sands National Park date back to between 21,000 and 23,000 years ago.

A comprehensive picture of three Bethe-Kikuchi variational principles including their relationship to belief propagation (BP) algorithms on hypergraphs is given. The structure of BP equations is generalized to define continuous-time diffusions, solving localized versions of the max-entropy principle (A), the variational free energy principle (B), and a less usual equilibrium free energy principle (C), Legendre dual to A. Both critical points of Bethe-Kikuchi functionals and stationary beliefs are shown to lie at the non-linear intersection of two constraint surfaces, enforcing energy conservation and marginal consistency respectively. The hypersurface of singular beliefs, accross which equilibria become unstable as the constraint surfaces meet tangentially, is described by polynomial equations in the convex polytope of consistent beliefs. This polynomial is expressed by a loop series expansion for graphs of binary variables.

Belief propagation (BP) is a useful probabilistic inference algorithm for efficiently computing approximate marginal probability densities of random variables. However, in its standard form, BP is only applicable to the vector-type random variables with a fixed and known number of vector elements, while certain applications rely on RFSs with an unknown number of vector elements. In this paper, we develop BP rules for factor graphs defined on sequences of RFSs where each RFS has an unknown number of elements, with the intention of deriving novel inference methods for RFSs. Furthermore, we show that vector-type BP is a special case of set-type BP, where each RFS follows the Bernoulli process. To demonstrate the validity of developed set-type BP, we apply it to the PMB filter for SLAM, which naturally leads to new set-type BP-mapping, SLAM, multi-target tracking, and simultaneous localization and tracking filters. Finally, we explore the relationships between the vector-type BP and the proposed set-type BP PMB-SLAM implementations and show a performance gain of the proposed set-type BP PMB-SLAM filter in comparison with the vector-type BP-SLAM filter.

This paper addresses the problem of safety-critical control of autonomous robots, considering the ubiquitous uncertainties arising from unmodeled dynamics and noisy sensors. To take into account these uncertainties, probabilistic state estimators are often deployed to obtain a belief over possible states. Namely, Particle Filters (PFs) can handle arbitrary non-Gaussian distributions in the robot's state. In this work, we define the belief state and belief dynamics for continuous-discrete PFs and construct safe sets in the underlying belief space. We design a controller that provably keeps the robot's belief state within this safe set. As a result, we ensure that the risk of the unknown robot's state violating a safety specification, such as avoiding a dangerous area, is bounded. We provide an open-source implementation as a ROS2 package and evaluate the solution in simulations and hardware experiments involving high-dimensional belief spaces.

Natural revision seems so natural: it changes beliefs as little as possible to incorporate new information. Yet, some counterexamples show it wrong. It is so conservative that it never fully believes. It only believes in the current conditions. This is right in some cases and wrong in others. Which is which? The answer requires extending natural revision from simple formulae expressing universal truths (something holds) to conditionals expressing conditional truth (something holds in certain conditions). The extension is based on the basic principles natural revision follows, identified as minimal change, indifference and naivety: change beliefs as little as possible; equate the likeliness of scenarios by default; believe all until contradicted. The extension says that natural revision restricts changes to the current conditions. A comparison with an unrestricting revision shows what exactly the current conditions are. It is not what currently considered true if it contradicts the new information. It includes something more and more unlikely until the new information is at least possible.

A transhumeral prosthesis restores missing anatomical segments below the shoulder, including the hand. Active prostheses utilize real-valued, continuous sensor data to recognize patient target poses, or goals, and proactively move the artificial limb. Previous studies have examined how well the data collected in stationary poses, without considering the time steps, can help discriminate the goals. In this case study paper, we focus on using time series data from surface electromyography electrodes and kinematic sensors to sequentially recognize patients' goals. Our approach involves transforming the data into discrete events and training an existing process mining-based goal recognition system. Results from data collected in a virtual reality setting with ten subjects demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed goal recognition approach, which achieves significantly better precision and recall than the state-of-the-art machine learning techniques and is less confident when wrong, which is beneficial when approximating smoother movements of prostheses.

Even if much has been written about ingredients that trigger laughter, researchers are still far from having completely understood their interplay in the cognitive process that leads a listener to guffaw at a pun or a joke. They are even farther from a detailed analysis and modeling of the mechanisms that are at work in this process. However, in recent articles Dupin de Saint-Cyr and Prade (2020, 2022) took a first step in this direction by laying bare that a belief revision mechanism was solicited in the reception of a narrative joke. Namely the punchline, which triggers a revision, is both surprising and explains perfectly what was reported in the beginning of the joke. A similar idea has been more informally proposed in Ritchie (2002). It is quite clear that this is insufficient for characterizing a narrative joke.

Heterogeneous multi-robot system deployment offers a For example, consider Figure 1 where two unmanned ground variety of advantages including improved versatility, scalability, vehicles (UGVs) and one unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) are and adaptability over homogeneous systems. As robotic exploring an environment and may discover tasks at undisclosed technology has advanced over the last few decades making locations. During disconnection, the UAV maintains robots smaller, more capable, and affordable, demand for a set of possible (belief) states for UGV 1 and UGV 2 and multi-robot research has grown. Appropriate coordination of also a set of (empathy) states that UGV 1 and UGV 2 might these heterogeneous systems can improve the effectiveness of believe about the UAV. The UAV finds a task that requires safety critical missions such as surveillance, exploration, and a UGV and plans to communicate with UGV 2. After the rescue operations by incorporating the capabilities of each UAV travels to UGV 2's first belief state, it finds that UGV robot. However, the complexity of the solution for a heterogeneous 2 is not present. So, the UAV reasons that UGV 2 might be system can exponentially expand over long periods at the second belief state, successfully communicates, and of disconnectivity, especially in uncertain environments.