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 Belief Revision




Author Response for ' Shaping Belief States with Generative Environment Models for RL '

Neural Information Processing Systems

We are grateful to all constructive and actionable feedback provided by the reviewers. We believe to have addressed the key concerns raised by the reviewers below. 's concerns with our main hypothesis as it has not We are working to improve our explanations in section 2.2 based on all feedback We emphasize that careful empirical experimentation in ML can also bring valuable insights to the community. Studying these factors require an intersectional empirical study such as this paper. Probabilistic models benefit more from overshoot than Deterministic models.



Approximate inference of marginals using the IBIA framework

Neural Information Processing Systems

Exact inference of marginals in probabilistic graphical models (PGM) is known to be intractable, necessitating the use of approximate methods. Most of the existing variational techniques perform iterative message passing in loopy graphs which is slow to converge for many benchmarks. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm for marginal inference that is based on the incremental build-infer-approximate (IBIA) paradigm. Our algorithm converts the PGM into a sequence of linked clique tree forests (SLCTF) with bounded clique sizes, and then uses a heuristic belief update algorithm to infer the marginals. For the special case of Bayesian networks, we show that if the incremental build step in IBIA uses the topological order of variables then (a) the prior marginals are consistent in all CTFs in the SLCTF and (b) the posterior marginals are consistent once all evidence variables are added to the SLCTF. In our approach, the belief propagation step is non-iterative and the accuracy-complexity trade-off is controlled using user-defined clique size bounds. Results for several benchmark sets from recent UAI competitions show that our method gives either better or comparable accuracy than existing variational and sampling based methods, with smaller runtimes.


The Effect of Belief Boxes and Open-mindedness on Persuasion

Bilgin, Onur, Sami, Abdullah As, Vujjini, Sriram Sai, Licato, John

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As multi-agent systems are increasingly utilized for reasoning and decision-making applications, there is a greater need for LLM-based agents to have something resembling propositional beliefs. One simple method for doing so is to include statements describing beliefs maintained in the prompt space (in what we'll call their belief boxes). But when agents have such statements in belief boxes, how does it actually affect their behaviors and dispositions towards those beliefs? And does it significantly affect agents' ability to be persuasive in multi-agent scenarios? Likewise, if the agents are given instructions to be open-minded, how does that affect their behaviors? We explore these and related questions in a series of experiments. Our findings confirm that instructing agents to be open-minded affects how amenable they are to belief change. We show that incorporating belief statements and their strengths influences an agent's resistance to (and persuasiveness against) opposing viewpoints. Furthermore, it affects the likelihood of belief change, particularly when the agent is outnumbered in a debate by opposing viewpoints, i.e., peer pressure scenarios. The results demonstrate the feasibility and validity of the belief box technique in reasoning and decision-making tasks.


Using Vision-Language Models as Proxies for Social Intelligence in Human-Robot Interaction

Bu, Fanjun, Tsai, Melina, Tjokro, Audrey, Bhattacharjee, Tapomayukh, Ortiz, Jorge, Ju, Wendy

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Robots operating in everyday environments must often decide when and whether to engage with people, yet such decisions often hinge on subtle nonverbal cues that unfold over time and are difficult to model explicitly. Drawing on a five-day Wizard-of-Oz deployment of a mobile service robot in a university cafe, we analyze how people signal interaction readiness through nonverbal behaviors and how expert wizards use these cues to guide engagement. Motivated by these observations, we propose a two-stage pipeline in which lightweight perceptual detectors (gaze shifts and proxemics) are used to selectively trigger heavier video-based vision-language model (VLM) queries at socially meaningful moments. We evaluate this pipeline on replayed field interactions and compare two prompting strategies. Our findings suggest that selectively using VLMs as proxies for social reasoning enables socially responsive robot behavior, allowing robots to act appropriately by attending to the cues people naturally provide in real-world interactions.


Open-Ended Goal Inference through Actions and Language for Human-Robot Collaboration

Ghose, Debasmita, Gitelson, Oz, Vazquez, Marynel, Scassellati, Brian

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

To collaborate with humans, robots must infer goals that are often ambiguous, difficult to articulate, or not drawn from a fixed set. Prior approaches restrict inference to a predefined goal set, rely only on observed actions, or depend exclusively on explicit instructions, making them brittle in real-world interactions. We present BALI (Bidirectional Action-Language Inference) for goal prediction, a method that integrates natural language preferences with observed human actions in a receding-horizon planning tree. BALI combines language and action cues from the human, asks clarifying questions only when the expected information gain from the answer outweighs the cost of interruption, and selects supportive actions that align with inferred goals. We evaluate the approach in collaborative cooking tasks, where goals may be novel to the robot and unbounded. Compared to baselines, BALI yields more stable goal predictions and significantly fewer mistakes.


Your brain doesn't age the way you think -- new research upends old beliefs

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Think Fast: Real-Time Kinodynamic Belief-Space Planning for Projectile Interception

Olin, Gabriel, Chen, Lu, Gandotra, Nayesha, Likhachev, Maxim, Choset, Howie

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Intercepting fast moving objects, by its very nature, is challenging because of its tight time constraints. This problem becomes further complicated in the presence of sensor noise because noisy sensors provide, at best, incomplete information, which results in a distribution over target states to be intercepted. Since time is of the essence, to hit the target, the planner must begin directing the interceptor, in this case a robot arm, while still receiving information. We introduce an tree-like structure, which is grown using kinodynamic motion primitives in state-time space. This tree-like structure encodes reachability to multiple goals from a single origin, while enabling real-time value updates as the target belief evolves and seamless transitions between goals. We evaluate our framework on an interception task on a 6 DOF industrial arm (ABB IRB-1600) with an onboard stereo camera (ZED 2i). A robust Innovation-based Adaptive Estimation Adaptive Kalman Filter (RIAE-AKF) is used to track the target and perform belief updates.