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The Wisdom of Crowds in Bioinformatics: What Can We Learn (and Gain) from Ensemble Predictions?

AAAI Conferences

The combination of distinct algorithms expertise to improve prediction accuracy, inspired by the theory of wisdom of crowds, has been increasingly discussed in literature. However, its application to bioinformatics-related tasks is still in its infancy. This thesis aims at investigating the potential and limitations of ensemble-based solutions for two bioinformatics prediction tasks, namely inference of gene regulatory networks and prediction of microRNAs targets, as well as propose new integration methods. We approach this by considering heterogeneity in the contexts of data and methods, and adopting machine learning methods and concepts from multiagent systems, such as social choice functions, for integration purposes.


On the Social Welfare of Mechanisms for Repeated Batch Matching

AAAI Conferences

We study hybrid online-batch matching problems, where agents arrive continuously, but are only matched in periodic rounds, when many of them can be considered simultaneously. Agents not getting matched in a given round remain in the market for the next round. This setting models several scenarios of interest, including many job markets as well as kidney exchange mechanisms. We consider the social utility of two commonly used mechanisms for such markets: one that aims for stability in each round (greedy), and one that attempts to maximize social utility in each round (max-weight). Surprisingly, we find that in the long term, the social utility of the greedy mechanism can be higher than that of the max-weight mechanism. We hypothesize that this is because the greedy mechanism behaves similarly to a soft threshold mechanism, where all connections below a certain threshold are rejected by the participants in favor of waiting until the next round. Motivated by this observation, we propose a method to approximately calculate the optimal threshold for an individual agent to use based on characteristics of the other agents participating, and demonstrate experimentally that social utility is high when all agents use this strategy. Thresholding can also be applied by the mechanism itself to improve social welfare; we demonstrate this with an example on graphs that model pairwise kidney exchange.


Strategic Behavior when Allocating Indivisible Goods Sequentially

AAAI Conferences

We study a simple sequential allocation mechanism for allocating indivisible goods between agents in which agents take turns to pick items.We focus on agents behaving strategically. We view the allocation procedure as a finite repeated game with perfect information. We show that with just two agents, we can compute the unique subgame perfect Nash equilibrium in linear time. With more agents, computing the subgame perfect Nash equilibria is more difficult. There can be an exponential number of equilibria and computing even one of them is PSPACE-hard. We identify a special case, when agents value many of the items identically, where we can efficiently compute the subgame perfect Nash equilibria. We also consider the effect of externalities and modifications to the mechanism that make it strategy proof.


Optimal Coalition Structure Generation in Cooperative Graph Games

AAAI Conferences

Representation languages for coalitional games are a key research area in algorithmic game theory. There is an inherent tradeoff between how general a language is, allowing it to capture more elaborate games, and how hard it is computationally to optimize and solve such games. One prominent such language is the simple yet expressive Weighted Graph Games (WGGs) representation (Deng and Papadimitriou, 1994), which maintains knowledge about synergies between agents in the form of an edge weighted graph. We consider the problem of finding the optimal coalition structure in WGGs. The agents in such games are vertices in a graph, and the value of a coalition is the sum of the weights of the edges present between coalition members. The optimal coalition structure is a partition of the agents to coalitions, that maximizes the sum of utilities obtained by the coalitions. We show that finding the optimal coalition structure is not only hard for general graphs, but is also intractable for restricted families such as planar graphs which are amenable for many other combinatorial problems. We then provide algorithms with constant factor approximations for planar, minor-free and bounded degree graphs.


Dynamic Social Choice with Evolving Preferences

AAAI Conferences

Social choice theory provides insights into a variety of collective decision making settings, but nowadays some of its tenets are challenged by internet environments, which call for dynamic decision making under constantly changing preferences. In this paper we model the problem via Markov decision processes (MDP), where the states of the MDP coincide with preference profiles and a (deterministic, stationary) policy corresponds to a social choice function. We can therefore employ the axioms studied in the social choice literature as guidelines in the design of socially desirable policies. We present tractable algorithms that compute optimal policies under different prominent social choice constraints. Our machinery relies on techniques for exploiting symmetries and isomorphisms between MDPs.


Automating Collusion Detection in Sequential Games

AAAI Conferences

Collusion is the practice of two or more parties deliberately cooperating to the detriment of others. While such behavior may be desirable in certain circumstances, in many it is considered dishonest and unfair. If agents otherwise hold strictly to the established rules, though, collusion can be challenging to police. In this paper, we introduce an automatic method for collusion detection in sequential games. We achieve this through a novel object, called a collusion table, that captures the effects of collusive behavior, i.e., advantage to the colluding parties, without assuming any particular pattern of behavior. We show the effectiveness of this method in the domain of poker, a popular game where collusion is prohibited.


Social Rankings in Human-Computer Committees

AAAI Conferences

Despite committees and elections being widespread in thereal-world, the design of agents for operating in humancomputer committees has received far less attention than thetheoretical analysis of voting strategies. We address this gapby providing an agent design that outperforms other voters ingroups comprising both people and computer agents. In oursetting participants vote by simultaneously submitting a ranking over a set of candidates and the election system uses a social welfare rule to select a ranking that minimizes disagreements with participants’ votes. We ran an extensive studyin which hundreds of people participated in repeated votingrounds with other people as well as computer agents that differed in how they employ strategic reasoning in their votingbehavior. Our results show that over time, people learn todeviate from truthful voting strategies, and use heuristics toguide their play, such as repeating their vote from the previous round. We show that a computer agent using a bestresponse voting strategy was able to outperform people in thegame. Our study has implication for agent designers, highlighting the types of strategies that enable agents to succeedin committees comprising both human and computer participants. This is the first work to study the role of computeragents in voting settings involving both human and agent participants.


Multiagent Coordination for Energy Consumption Scheduling in Consumer Cooperatives

AAAI Conferences

A key challenge to create a sustainable and energy-efficient society is in making consumer demand adaptive to energy supply, especially renewable supply. In this paper, we propose a partially-centralized organization of consumers, namely, a consumer cooperative for purchasing electricity from the market. We propose a novel multiagent coordination algorithm to shape the energy consumption of the cooperative. In the cooperative, a central coordinator buys the electricity for the whole group and consumers make their own consumption decisions based on their private consumption constraints and preferences. To coordinate individual consumers under incomplete information, we propose an iterative algorithm in which a virtual price signal is sent by the coordinator to induce consumers to shift demand. We prove that our algorithm converges to the central optimal solution. Additionally we analyze the convergence rate of the algorithm via simulations on randomly generated instances. The results indicate scalability with respect to the number of agents and consumption slots.


Qualitative Planning under Partial Observability in Multi-Agent Domains

AAAI Conferences

Decentralized POMDPs (Dec-POMDPs) provide a rich, attractive model for planning under uncertainty and partial observability in cooperative multi-agent domains with a growing body of research. In this paper we formulate a qualitative, propositional model for multi-agent planning under uncertainty with partial observability, which we call Qualitative Dec-POMDP (QDec-POMDP). We show that the worst-case complexity of planning in QDec-POMDPs is similar to that of Dec-POMDPs. Still, because the model is more “classical” in nature, it is more compact and easier to specify. Furthermore, it eases the adaptation of methods used in classical and contingent planning to solve problems that challenge current Dec-POMDPs solvers. In particular, in this paper we describe a method based on compilation to classical planning, which handles multi-agent planning problems significantly larger than those handled by current Dec-POMDP algorithms.


Bribery in Voting With Soft Constraints

AAAI Conferences

We consider a multi-agent scenario where a collection of agents needs to select a common decision from a large set of decisions over which they express their preferences. This decision set has a combinatorial structure, that is, each decision is an element of the Cartesian product of the domains of some variables. Agents express their preferences over the decisions via soft constraints. We consider both sequential preference aggregation methods (they aggregate the preferences over one variable at a time) and one-step methods and we study the computational complexity of influencing them through bribery. We prove that bribery is NPcomplete for the sequential aggregation methods (based on Plurality, Approval, and Borda) for most of the cost schemes we defined, while it is polynomial for one-step Plurality.