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On learning agent-based models from data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Agent-Based Models (ABMs) are used in several fields to study the evolution of complex systems from micro-level assumptions. However, ABMs typically can not estimate agent-specific (or "micro") variables: this is a major limitation which prevents ABMs from harnessing micro-level data availability and which greatly limits their predictive power. In this paper, we propose a protocol to learn the latent micro-variables of an ABM from data. The first step of our protocol is to reduce an ABM to a probabilistic model, characterized by a computationally tractable likelihood. This reduction follows two general design principles: balance of stochasticity and data availability, and replacement of unobservable discrete choices with differentiable approximations. Then, our protocol proceeds by maximizing the likelihood of the latent variables via a gradient-based expectation maximization algorithm. We demonstrate our protocol by applying it to an ABM of the housing market, in which agents with different incomes bid higher prices to live in high-income neighborhoods. We demonstrate that the obtained model allows accurate estimates of the latent variables, while preserving the general behavior of the ABM. We also show that our estimates can be used for out-of-sample forecasting. Our protocol can be seen as an alternative to black-box data assimilation methods, that forces the modeler to lay bare the assumptions of the model, to think about the inferential process, and to spot potential identification problems.


Fairly Allocating Utility in Constrained Multiwinner Elections

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Fairness in multiwinner elections is studied in varying contexts. For instance, diversity of candidates and representation of voters are both separately termed as being fair. A common denominator to ensure fairness across all such contexts is the use of constraints. However, across these contexts, the candidates selected to satisfy the given constraints may systematically lead to unfair outcomes for historically disadvantaged voter populations as the cost of fairness may be borne unequally. Hence, we develop a model to select candidates that satisfy the constraints fairly across voter populations. To do so, the model maps the constrained multiwinner election problem to a problem of fairly allocating indivisible goods. We propose three variants of the model, namely, global, localized, and inter-sectional. Next, we analyze the model's computational complexity, and we present an empirical analysis of the utility traded-off across various settings of our model across the three variants and discuss the impact of Simpson's paradox using synthetic datasets and a dataset of voting at the United Nations. Finally, we discuss the implications of our work for AI and machine learning, especially for studies that use constraints to guarantee fairness.


Cost Splitting for Multi-Objective Conflict-Based Search

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The Multi-Objective Multi-Agent Path Finding (MO-MAPF) problem is the problem of finding the Pareto-optimal frontier of collision-free paths for a team of agents while minimizing multiple cost metrics. Examples of such cost metrics include arrival times, travel distances, and energy consumption.In this paper, we focus on the Multi-Objective Conflict-Based Search (MO-CBS) algorithm, a state-of-the-art MO-MAPF algorithm. We show that the standard splitting strategy used by MO-CBS can lead to duplicate search nodes and hence can duplicate the search effort that MO-CBS needs to make. To address this issue, we propose two new splitting strategies for MO-CBS, namely cost splitting and disjoint cost splitting. Our theoretical results show that, when combined with either of these two new splitting strategies, MO-CBS maintains its completeness and optimality guarantees. Our experimental results show that disjoint cost splitting, our best splitting strategy, speeds up MO-CBS by up to two orders of magnitude and substantially improves its success rates in various settings.


On the Complexity of Finding a Diverse and Representative Committee using a Monotone, Separable Positional Multiwinner Voting Rule

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Fairness in multiwinner elections, a growing line of research in computational social choice, primarily concerns the use of constraints to ensure fairness. Recent work proposed a model to find a diverse \emph{and} representative committee and studied the model's computational aspects. However, the work gave complexity results under major assumptions on how the candidates and the voters are grouped. Here, we close this gap and classify the complexity of finding a diverse and representative committee using a monotone, separable positional multiwinner voting rule, conditioned \emph{only} on the assumption that P $\neq$ NP.


Noisy Symbolic Abstractions for Deep RL: A case study with Reward Machines

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Natural and formal languages provide an effective mechanism for humans to specify instructions and reward functions. We investigate how to generate policies via RL when reward functions are specified in a symbolic language captured by Reward Machines, an increasingly popular automaton-inspired structure. We are interested in the case where the mapping of environment state to a symbolic (here, Reward Machine) vocabulary -- commonly known as the labelling function -- is uncertain from the perspective of the agent. We formulate the problem of policy learning in Reward Machines with noisy symbolic abstractions as a special class of POMDP optimization problem, and investigate several methods to address the problem, building on existing and new techniques, the latter focused on predicting Reward Machine state, rather than on grounding of individual symbols. We analyze these methods and evaluate them experimentally under varying degrees of uncertainty in the correct interpretation of the symbolic vocabulary. We verify the strength of our approach and the limitation of existing methods via an empirical investigation on both illustrative, toy domains and partially observable, deep RL domains.


Enhancing team performance with transfer-learning during real-world human-robot collaboration

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Socially aware robots should be able, among others, to support fluent human-robot collaboration in tasks that require interdependent actions in order to be solved. Towards enhancing mutual performance, collaborative robots should be equipped with adaptation and learning capabilities. However, co-learning can be a time consuming procedure. For this reason, transferring knowledge from an expert could potentially boost the overall team performance. In the present study, transfer learning was integrated in a deep Reinforcement Learning (dRL) agent. In a real-time and real-world set-up, two groups of participants had to collaborate with a cobot under two different conditions of dRL agents; one that was transferring knowledge and one that did not. A probabilistic policy reuse method was used for the transfer learning (TL). The results showed that there was a significant difference between the performance of the two groups; TL halved the time needed for the training of new participants to the task. Moreover, TL also affected the subjective performance of the teams and enhanced the perceived fluency. Finally, in many cases the objective performance metrics did not correlate with the subjective ones providing interesting insights about the design of transparent and explainable cobot behaviour.


Winding Through: Crowd Navigation via Topological Invariance

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We focus on robot navigation in crowded environments. The challenge of predicting the motion of a crowd around a robot makes it hard to ensure human safety and comfort. Recent approaches often employ end-to-end techniques for robot control or deep architectures for high-fidelity human motion prediction. While these methods achieve important performance benchmarks in simulated domains, dataset limitations and high sample complexity tend to prevent them from transferring to real-world environments. Our key insight is that a low-dimensional representation that captures critical features of crowd-robot dynamics could be sufficient to enable a robot to wind through a crowd smoothly. To this end, we mathematically formalize the act of passing between two agents as a rotation, using a notion of topological invariance. Based on this formalism, we design a cost functional that favors robot trajectories contributing higher passing progress and penalizes switching between different sides of a human. We incorporate this functional into a model predictive controller that employs a simple constant-velocity model of human motion prediction. This results in robot motion that accomplishes statistically significantly higher clearances from the crowd compared to state-of-the-art baselines while maintaining competitive levels of efficiency, across extensive simulations and challenging real-world experiments on a self-balancing robot.


MineDojo: Building Open-Ended Embodied Agents with Internet-Scale Knowledge

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Autonomous agents have made great strides in specialist domains like Atari games and Go. However, they typically learn tabula rasa in isolated environments with limited and manually conceived objectives, thus failing to generalize across a wide spectrum of tasks and capabilities. Inspired by how humans continually learn and adapt in the open world, we advocate a trinity of ingredients for building generalist agents: 1) an environment that supports a multitude of tasks and goals, 2) a large-scale database of multimodal knowledge, and 3) a flexible and scalable agent architecture. We introduce MineDojo, a new framework built on the popular Minecraft game that features a simulation suite with thousands of diverse open-ended tasks and an internet-scale knowledge base with Minecraft videos, tutorials, wiki pages, and forum discussions. Using MineDojo's data, we propose a novel agent learning algorithm that leverages large pre-trained video-language models as a learned reward function. Our agent is able to solve a variety of open-ended tasks specified in free-form language without any manually designed dense shaping reward. We open-source the simulation suite, knowledge bases, algorithm implementation, and pretrained models (https://minedojo.org) to promote research towards the goal of generally capable embodied agents.


The impact of moving expenses on social segregation: a simulation with RL and ABM

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Over the past decades, breakthroughs such as Reinforcement Learning (RL) and Agent-based modeling (ABM) have made simulations of economic models feasible. Recently, there has been increasing interest in applying ABM to study the impact of residential preferences on neighborhood segregation in the Schelling Segregation Model. In this paper, RL is combined with ABM to simulate a modified Schelling Segregation model, which incorporates moving expenses as an input parameter. In particular, deep Q network (DQN) is adopted as RL agents' learning algorithm to simulate the behaviors of households and their preferences. This paper studies the impact of moving expenses on the overall segregation pattern and its role in social integration. A more comprehensive simulation of the segregation model is built for policymakers to forecast the potential consequences of their policies.


A Mixed-Method Approach to Determining Contact Matrices in the Cox's Bazar Refugee Settlement

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Contact matrices are an important ingredient in age-structured epidemic models to inform the simulated spread of the disease between sub-groups of the population. These matrices are generally derived using resource-intensive diary-based surveys and few exist in the Global South or tailored to vulnerable populations. In particular, no contact matrices exist for refugee settlements - locations under-served by epidemic models in general. In this paper we present a novel, mixed-method approach, for deriving contact matrices in populations which combines a lightweight, rapidly deployable, survey with an agent-based model of the population informed by census and behavioural data. We use this method to derive the first set of contact matrices for the Cox's Bazar refugee settlement in Bangladesh. The matrices from the refugee settlement show strong banding effects due to different age cut-offs in attendance at certain venues, such as distribution centres and religious sites, as well as the important contribution of the demographic profile of the settlement which was encoded in the model. These can have significant implications to the modelled disease dynamics. To validate our approach, we also apply our method to the population of the UK and compare our derived matrices against well-known contact matrices previously collected using traditional approaches. Overall, our findings demonstrate that our mixed-method approach can address some of the challenges of both the traditional and previously proposed agent-based approaches to deriving contact matrices, and has the potential to be rolled-out in other resource-constrained environments. This work therefore contributes to a broader aim of developing new methods and mechanisms of data collection for modelling disease spread in refugee and IDP settlements and better serving these vulnerable communities.