For many applications of agent-based models (ABMs), an agent's age influences important decisions (e.g. their contribution to/withdrawal from pension funds, their level of risk aversion in decision-making, etc.) and outcomes in their life cycle (e.g. their susceptibility to disease). These considerations make it crucial to accurately capture the age distribution of the population being considered. Often, empirical survival probabilities cannot be used in ABMs to generate the observed age structure due to discrepancies between samples or models (between the ABM and the survival statistical model used to produce empirical rates). In these cases, imputing empirical survival probabilities will not generate the observed age structure of the population, and assumptions such as exogenous agent inflows are necessary (but not necessarily empirically valid). In this paper, we propose a method that allows for the preservation of agent age-structure without the exogenous influx of agents, even when only a subset of the population is being modelled. We demonstrate the flexibility and accuracy of our methodology by performing simulations of several real-world age distributions. This method is a useful tool for those developing ABMs across a broad range of applications.

We are currently in a great era for researchers and scientists studying and developing in the field of complex systems. Half of the physics Nobel prize of 2021 was awarded to the physicist Giorgio Parisi for his contributions to the theory of complex systems [9] and the other half to two meteorologists Syukuro Manabe and Klaus Hasselmann to the modeling of the Earth's climate [10]. Parisi has made significant contributions to the literature on complex systems, including areas such as spin glass [11, 12, 13], stochastic resonance [14], surface growth [15], multifractality [16], and bird flocking [17].

We present an approach for designing swarm-based optimizers for the global optimization of expensive black-box functions. In the proposed approach, the problem of finding efficient optimizers is framed as a reinforcement learning problem, where the goal is to find optimization policies that require a few function evaluations to converge to the global optimum. The state of each agent within the swarm is defined as its current position and function value within a design space and the agents learn to take favorable actions that maximize reward, which is based on the final value of the objective function. The proposed approach is tested on various benchmark optimization functions and compared to the performance of other global optimization strategies. Furthermore, the effect of changing the number of agents, as well as the generalization capabilities of the trained agents are investigated. The results show superior performance compared to the other optimizers, desired scaling when the number of agents is varied, and acceptable performance even when applied to unseen functions. On a broader scale, the results show promise for the rapid development of domain-specific optimizers.

To drive safely in complex traffic environments, autonomous vehicles need to make an accurate prediction of the future trajectories of nearby heterogeneous traffic agents (i.e., vehicles, pedestrians, bicyclists, etc). Due to the interactive nature, human drivers are accustomed to infer what the future situations will become if they are going to execute different maneuvers. To fully exploit the impacts of interactions, this paper proposes a ego-planning guided multi-graph convolutional network (EPG-MGCN) to predict the trajectories of heterogeneous agents using both historical trajectory information and ego vehicle's future planning information. The EPG-MGCN first models the social interactions by employing four graph topologies, i.e., distance graphs, visibility graphs, planning graphs and category graphs. Then, the planning information of the ego vehicle is encoded by both the planning graph and the subsequent planning-guided prediction module to reduce uncertainty in the trajectory prediction. Finally, a category-specific gated recurrent unit (CS-GRU) encoder-decoder is designed to generate future trajectories for each specific type of agents. Our network is evaluated on two real-world trajectory datasets: ApolloScape and NGSIM. The experimental results show that the proposed EPG-MGCN achieves state-of-the-art performance compared to existing methods.

We study the problem of federated stochastic multi-arm contextual bandits with unknown contexts, in which M agents are faced with different bandits and collaborate to learn. The communication model consists of a central server and the agents share their estimates with the central server periodically to learn to choose optimal actions in order to minimize the total regret. We assume that the exact contexts are not observable and the agents observe only a distribution of the contexts. Such a situation arises, for instance, when the context itself is a noisy measurement or based on a prediction mechanism. Our goal is to develop a distributed and federated algorithm that facilitates collaborative learning among the agents to select a sequence of optimal actions so as to maximize the cumulative reward. By performing a feature vector transformation, we propose an elimination-based algorithm and prove the regret bound for linearly parametrized reward functions. Finally, we validated the performance of our algorithm and compared it with another baseline approach using numerical simulations on synthetic data and on the real-world movielens dataset.

We present a novel approach for efficient and reliable goal-directed long-horizon navigation for a multi-robot team in a structured, unknown environment by predicting statistics of unknown space. Building on recent work in learning-augmented model based planning under uncertainty, we introduce a high-level state and action abstraction that lets us approximate the challenging Dec-POMDP into a tractable stochastic MDP. Our Multi-Robot Learning over Subgoals Planner (MR-LSP) guides agents towards coordinated exploration of regions more likely to reach the unseen goal. We demonstrate improvement in cost against other multi-robot strategies; in simulated office-like environments, we show that our approach saves 13.29% (2 robot) and 4.6% (3 robot) average cost versus standard non-learned optimistic planning and a learning-informed baseline.

From construction materials, such as sand or asphalt, to kitchen ingredients, like rice, sugar, or salt; the world is full of granular materials. Despite impressive progress in robotic manipulation, manipulating and interacting with granular material remains a challenge due to difficulties in perceiving, representing, modelling, and planning for these variable materials that have complex internal dynamics. While some prior work has looked into estimating or learning accurate dynamics models for granular materials, the literature is still missing a more abstract planning method that can be used for planning manipulation actions for granular materials with unknown material properties. In this work, we leverage tools from optimal transport and connect them to robot motion planning. We propose a heuristics-based sweep planner that does not require knowledge of the material's properties and directly uses a height map representation to generate promising sweeps. These sweeps transform granular material from arbitrary start shapes into arbitrary target shapes. We apply the sweep planner in a fast and reactive feedback loop and avoid the need for model-based planning over multiple time steps. We validate our approach with a large set of simulation and hardware experiments where we show that our method is capable of efficiently solving several complex tasks, including gathering, separating, and shaping of several types of granular materials into different target shapes.

In this context, defining and analysing their mobility is particularly important. A mobility model describes the behaviour of an entity considering its capacities, possible moves and speed. The mobility models are described either analytically at the individual level, or by the interactions between the parts of the system (between UAVs, UAVs and planes, UAVs and points to survey, etc.). The resulting behaviours described with these simple rules can induce the emergence of a global intelligent behaviour. Inversely, from the resulting behaviour of such a swarm, these initial simple rules are hard to discover.

This paper presents a white-box intention-aware decision-making for the handling of interactions between a pedestrian and an automated vehicle (AV) in an unsignalized street crossing scenario. Moreover, a design framework has been developed, which enables automated parameterization of the decision-making. This decision-making is designed in such a manner that it can understand pedestrians in urban traffic and can react accordingly to their intentions. That way, a human-like response to the actions of the pedestrian is ensured, leading to a higher acceptance of AVs. The core notion of this paper is that the intention prediction of the pedestrian to cross the street and decision-making are divided into two subsystems. On the one hand, the intention detection is a data-driven, black-box model. Thus, it can model the complex behavior of the pedestrians. On the other hand, the decision-making is a white-box model to ensure traceability and to enable a rapid verification and validation of AVs. This white-box decision-making provides human-like behavior and a guaranteed prevention of deadlocks. An additional benefit is that the proposed decision-making requires low computational resources only enabling real world usage. The automated parameterization uses a particle swarm optimization and compares two different models of the pedestrian: The social force model and the Markov decision process model. Consequently, a rapid design of the decision-making is possible and different pedestrian behaviors can be taken into account. The results reinforce the applicability of the proposed intention-aware decision-making.

Underlying relationships among Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) in hazardous scenarios can be represented as Game-theoretic models. This paper proposes a new hierarchical network-based model called Game-theoretic Utility Tree (GUT), which decomposes high-level strategies into executable low-level actions for cooperative MAS decisions. It combines with a new payoff measure based on agent needs for real-time strategy games. We present an Explore game domain, where we measure the performance of MAS achieving tasks from the perspective of balancing the success probability and system costs. We evaluate the GUT approach against state-of-the-art methods that greedily rely on rewards of the composite actions. Conclusive results on extensive numerical simulations indicate that GUT can organize more complex relationships among MAS cooperation, helping the group achieve challenging tasks with lower costs and higher winning rates. Furthermore, we demonstrated the applicability of the GUT using the simulator-hardware testbed - Robotarium. The performances verified the effectiveness of the GUT in the real robot application and validated that the GUT could effectively organize MAS cooperation strategies, helping the group with fewer advantages achieve higher performance.