Bayesian predictive synthesis (BPS) provides a method for combining multiple predictive distributions based on agent/expert opinion analysis theory and encompasses a range of existing density forecast pooling methods. The key ingredient in BPS is a ``synthesis'' function. This is typically specified parametrically as a dynamic linear regression. In this paper, we develop a nonparametric treatment of the synthesis function using regression trees. We show the advantages of our tree-based approach in two macroeconomic forecasting applications. The first uses density forecasts for GDP growth from the euro area's Survey of Professional Forecasters. The second combines density forecasts of US inflation produced by many regression models involving different predictors. Both applications demonstrate the benefits -- in terms of improved forecast accuracy and interpretability -- of modeling the synthesis function nonparametrically.

The availability of representative datasets is an essential prerequisite for many successful artificial intelligence and machine learning models. However, in real life applications these models often encounter scenarios that are inadequately represented in the data used for training. There are various reasons for the absence of sufficient data, ranging from time and cost constraints to ethical considerations. As a consequence, the reliable usage of these models, especially in safety-critical applications, is still a tremendous challenge. Leveraging additional, already existing sources of knowledge is key to overcome the limitations of purely data-driven approaches. Knowledge augmented machine learning approaches offer the possibility of compensating for deficiencies, errors, or ambiguities in the data, thus increasing the generalization capability of the applied models. Even more, predictions that conform with knowledge are crucial for making trustworthy and safe decisions even in underrepresented scenarios. This work provides an overview of existing techniques and methods in the literature that combine data-driven models with existing knowledge. The identified approaches are structured according to the categories knowledge integration, extraction and conformity. In particular, we address the application of the presented methods in the field of autonomous driving.

In this report, we delve into two critical research inquiries. Firstly, we explore the extent to which Reinforcement Learning (RL) agents exhibit multimodal distributions in the context of stop-and-go traffic scenarios. Secondly, we investigate how RL-controlled Robot Vehicles (RVs) effectively navigate their direction and coordinate with other vehicles in complex traffic environments. Our analysis encompasses an examination of multimodality within queue length, outflow, and platoon size distributions for both Robot and Human-driven Vehicles (HVs). Additionally, we assess the Pearson coefficient correlation, shedding light on relationships between queue length and outflow, considering both identical and differing travel directions. Furthermore, we delve into causal inference models, shedding light on the factors influencing queue length across scenarios involving varying travel directions. Through these investigations, this report contributes valuable insights into the behaviors of mixed traffic (RVs and HVs) in traffic management and coordination.

This paper presents an integrated algorithmic framework for minimising product delivery costs in e-commerce (known as the cost-to-serve or C2S). One of the major challenges in e-commerce is the large volume of spatio-temporally diverse orders from multiple customers, each of which has to be fulfilled from one of several warehouses using a fleet of vehicles. This results in two levels of decision-making: (i) selection of a fulfillment node for each order (including the option of deferral to a future time), and then (ii) routing of vehicles (each of which can carry multiple orders originating from the same warehouse). We propose an approach that combines graph neural networks and reinforcement learning to train the node selection and vehicle routing agents. We include real-world constraints such as warehouse inventory capacity, vehicle characteristics such as travel times, service times, carrying capacity, and customer constraints including time windows for delivery. The complexity of this problem arises from the fact that outcomes (rewards) are driven both by the fulfillment node mapping as well as the routing algorithms, and are spatio-temporally distributed. Our experiments show that this algorithmic pipeline outperforms pure heuristic policies.

A critical aspect of autonomous operations in safety-critical scenarios is learning from available data for quick adaptation to new environments while maintaining safety. Examples include aircraft emergency landing scenarios in adverse weather conditions and agile quadrotor flights through low clearance gates in the presence of dynamic and strong wind conditions [1]. From a system theoretic perspective, this system feature maps to having the autonomous agent handle parametric model uncertainties and disturbances with control-theoretic guarantees such as stability and tracking error convergence, common in adaptive control settings [2, 3]. A rich body of literature has analyzed classical adaptive control algorithms' stability and convergence properties for continuous-time dynamical systems. Such studies include the use of PI (proportional integral) controllers [4] for a class of linear time-varying systems to guarantee (I) infinite-time convergence of the tracking error to zero, i.e., the difference between actual and nominal states () = () (), for any constant exogenous disturbance (denoted by), (II) infinite-time convergence of the tracking error () to a bound which is proportional to the bound on the magnitude of the rate of the exogenous signal ().

Software bots have attracted increasing interest and popularity in both research and society. Their contributions span automation, digital twins, game characters with conscious-like behavior, and social media. However, there is still a lack of intelligent bots that can adapt to the variability and dynamic nature of digital web environments. Unlike human users, they have difficulty understanding and exploiting the affordances across multiple virtual environments. Despite the hype, bots with human user-like cognition do not currently exist. Chatbots, for instance, lack situational awareness on the digital platforms where they operate, preventing them from enacting meaningful and autonomous intelligent behavior similar to human users. In this survey, we aim to explore the role of cognitive architectures in supporting efforts towards engineering software bots with advanced general intelligence. We discuss how cognitive architectures can contribute to creating intelligent software bots. Furthermore, we highlight key architectural recommendations for the future development of autonomous, user-like cognitive bots.

As robots are deployed in human spaces, it's important that they are able to coordinate their actions with the people around them. Part of such coordination involves ensuring that people have a good understanding of how a robot will act in the environment. This can be achieved through explanations of the robot's policy. Much prior work in explainable AI and RL focuses on generating explanations for single-agent policies, but little has been explored in generating explanations for collaborative policies. In this work, we investigate how to generate multi-agent strategy explanations for human-robot collaboration. We formulate the problem using a generic multi-agent planner, show how to generate visual explanations through strategy-conditioned landmark states and generate textual explanations by giving the landmarks to an LLM. Through a user study, we find that when presented with explanations from our proposed framework, users are able to better explore the full space of strategies and collaborate more efficiently with new robot partners.

We focus on the problem of how we can enable a robot to collaborate seamlessly with a human partner, specifically in scenarios like collaborative manufacturing where prexisting data is sparse. Much prior work in human-robot collaboration uses observational models of humans (i.e. models that treat the robot purely as an observer) to choose the robot's behavior, but such models do not account for the influence the robot has on the human's actions, which may lead to inefficient interactions. We instead formulate the problem of optimally choosing a collaborative robot's behavior based on a conditional model of the human that depends on the robot's future behavior. First, we propose a novel model-based formulation of conditional behavior prediction that allows the robot to infer the human's intentions based on its future plan in data-sparse environments. We then show how to utilize a conditional model for proactive goal selection and path generation around human collaborators. Finally, we use our proposed proactive controller in a collaborative task with real users to show that it can improve users' interactions with a robot collaborator quantitatively and qualitatively.

In this work, we consider a `cooperative' multi-agent Markov decision process (MDP) involving m greater than 1 agents, where all agents are aware of the system model. At each decision epoch, all the m agents cooperatively select actions in order to maximize a common long-term objective. Since the number of actions grows exponentially in the number of agents, policy improvement is computationally expensive. Recent works have proposed using decentralized policy improvement in which each agent assumes that the decisions of the other agents are fixed and it improves its decisions unilaterally. Yet, in these works, exact values are computed. In our work, for cooperative multi-agent finite and infinite horizon discounted MDPs, we propose suitable approximate policy iteration algorithms, wherein we use approximate linear programming to compute the approximate value function and use decentralized policy improvement. Thus our algorithms can handle both large number of states as well as multiple agents. We provide theoretical guarantees for our algorithms and also demonstrate the performance of our algorithms on some numerical examples.

The distributed consensus protocol (CP) presented in [1] enables a connected swarm of agents, modelled as single integrators, to trace repeated geometric paths in both 2-dimensional (2-D) and 3-D spaces. The parameters of the protocol, the connection topology of the swarm, and the initial positions of the agents define the characteristics of the generated paths. The applications of agents, or robots, tracing such paths have been well identified in the literature, for example, persistent coverage and surveillance of a region, guarding an asset, and target detection; the cited references provide an exhaustive list. In such applications, the issues of collisions between robots, communication range, feasibility of path tracking, and time taken to trace the path, have to be considered explicitly. Further, in applications involving guarding a specific region or an asset, the path should be defined by making the asset the centre of rotation (CoR). In this paper, the protocol is designed for a connected swarm of 3 unicycle-robots of finite size moving in a 2-D Cartesian space; the use of 3 robots leads to the generation of trochoidal paths, where each robot traces a unique trochoid. For a given communication topology, design of the trochoidal paths involves the selection of 3 scalars for the CP, a positive integer,k, with magnitudek 2, and the initial coordinates of the 3 robots inX Y space, thus leading to a total of 10 design variables.