Large Language Model
Can LLM-based Financial Investing Strategies Outperform the Market in Long Run?
Li, Weixian Waylon, Kim, Hyeonjun, Cucuringu, Mihai, Ma, Tiejun
Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently been leveraged for asset pricing tasks and stock trading applications, enabling AI agents to generate investment decisions from unstructured financial data. However, most evaluations of LLM timing-based investing strategies are conducted on narrow timeframes and limited stock universes, overstating effectiveness due to survivorship and data-snooping biases. We critically assess their generalizability and robustness by proposing FINSABER, a backtesting framework evaluating timing-based strategies across longer periods and a larger universe of symbols. Systematic backtests over two decades and 100+ symbols reveal that previously reported LLM advantages deteriorate significantly under broader cross-section and over a longer-term evaluation. Our market regime analysis further demonstrates that LLM strategies are overly conservative in bull markets, underperforming passive benchmarks, and overly aggressive in bear markets, incurring heavy losses. These findings highlight the need to develop LLM strategies that are able to prioritise trend detection and regime-aware risk controls over mere scaling of framework complexity.
Text-to-Decision Agent: Offline Meta-Reinforcement Learning from Natural Language Supervision
Zhang, Shilin, Hu, Zican, Wu, Wenhao, Xie, Xinyi, Tang, Jianxiang, Chen, Chunlin, Dong, Daoyi, Cheng, Yu, Sun, Zhenhong, Wang, Zhi
Offline meta-RL usually tackles generalization by inferring task beliefs from high-quality samples or warmup explorations. The restricted form limits their generality and usability since these supervision signals are expensive and even infeasible to acquire in advance for unseen tasks. Learning directly from the raw text about decision tasks is a promising alternative to leverage a much broader source of supervision. In the paper, we propose \textbf{T}ext-to-\textbf{D}ecision \textbf{A}gent (\textbf{T2DA}), a simple and scalable framework that supervises offline meta-RL with natural language. We first introduce a generalized world model to encode multi-task decision data into a dynamics-aware embedding space. Then, inspired by CLIP, we predict which textual description goes with which decision embedding, effectively bridging their semantic gap via contrastive language-decision pre-training and aligning the text embeddings to comprehend the environment dynamics. After training the text-conditioned generalist policy, the agent can directly realize zero-shot text-to-decision generation in response to language instructions. Comprehensive experiments on MuJoCo and Meta-World benchmarks show that T2DA facilitates high-capacity zero-shot generalization and outperforms various types of baselines. Our code is available at \textcolor{magenta}{\href{https://github.com/NJU-RL/T2DA}{https://github.com/NJU-RL/T2DA}}.
Does Reinforcement Learning Really Incentivize Reasoning Capacity in LLMs Beyond the Base Model?
Yue, Yang, Chen, Zhiqi, Lu, Rui, Zhao, Andrew, Wang, Zhaokai, Yue, Yang, Song, Shiji, Huang, Gao
Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has recently demonstrated notable success in enhancing the reasoning performance of large language models (LLMs), particularly on mathematics and programming tasks. Similar to how traditional RL helps agents explore and learn new strategies, RLVR is believed to enable LLMs to continuously self-improve, thus acquiring novel reasoning abilities beyond those of the corresponding base models. In this study we critically examine the current state of RLVR by systematically probing the reasoning capability boundaries of RLVR-trained LLMs across various model families, RL algorithms, and math, coding, and visual reasoning benchmarks, using pass@k at large k values as the evaluation metric. Surprisingly, we find that the current training setup does not elicit fundamentally new reasoning patterns. While RLVR-trained models outperform their base models at small k (e.g., k = 1), the base models achieve a higher pass@k score when k is large. Coverage and perplexity analyses show that the observed reasoning abilities originate from and are bounded by the base model. Treating the base model as an upper bound, our quantitative analysis shows that six popular RLVR algorithms perform similarly and remain far from optimal in leveraging the potential of the base model. By contrast, we find that distillation can introduce new reasoning patterns from the teacher and genuinely expand the model's reasoning capabilities. Overall, our findings suggest that current RLVR methods have not yet realized the potential of RL to elicit truly novel reasoning abilities in LLMs. This highlights the need for improved RL paradigms, such as continual scaling and multi-turn agent-environment interaction, to unlock this potential.
From Punchlines to Predictions: A Metric to Assess LLM Performance in Identifying Humor in Stand-Up Comedy
Romanowski, Adrianna, Valois, Pedro H. V., Fukui, Kazuhiro
Comedy serves as a profound reflection of the times we live in and is a staple element of human interactions. In light of the widespread adoption of Large Language Models (LLMs), the intersection of humor and AI has become no laughing matter. Advancements in the naturalness of human-computer interaction correlates with improvements in AI systems' abilities to understand humor. In this study, we assess the ability of models in accurately identifying humorous quotes from a stand-up comedy transcript. Stand-up comedy's unique comedic narratives make it an ideal dataset to improve the overall naturalness of comedic understanding. We propose a novel humor detection metric designed to evaluate LLMs amongst various prompts on their capability to extract humorous punchlines. The metric has a modular structure that offers three different scoring methods - fuzzy string matching, sentence embedding, and subspace similarity - to provide an overarching assessment of a model's performance. The model's results are compared against those of human evaluators on the same task. Our metric reveals that regardless of prompt engineering, leading models, ChatGPT, Claude, and DeepSeek, achieve scores of at most 51% in humor detection. Notably, this performance surpasses that of humans who achieve a score of 41%. The analysis of human evaluators and LLMs reveals variability in agreement, highlighting the subjectivity inherent in humor and the complexities involved in extracting humorous quotes from live performance transcripts. Code available at https://github.com/swaggirl9000/humor.
Integrating Cognitive Processing Signals into Language Models: A Review of Advances, Applications and Future Directions
Lopez-Cardona, Angela, Idesis, Sebastian, Arapakis, Ioannis
Recently, the integration of cognitive neuroscience in Natural Language Processing (NLP) has gained significant attention. This article provides a critical and timely overview of recent advancements in leveraging cognitive signals, particularly Eye-tracking (ET) signals, to enhance Language Models (LMs) and Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs). By incorporating user-centric cognitive signals, these approaches address key challenges, including data scarcity and the environmental costs of training large-scale models. Cognitive signals enable efficient data augmentation, faster convergence, and improved human alignment. The review emphasises the potential of ET data in tasks like Visual Question Answering (VQA) and mitigating hallucinations in MLLMs, and concludes by discussing emerging challenges and research trends.
VALUE: Value-Aware Large Language Model for Query Rewriting via Weighted Trie in Sponsored Search
Zhang, Xiao, Chen, Guanyu, Zuo, Boyang, Li, Feng, Wang, Pengjie, Xu, Jian, Zheng, Bo
Query-to-bidword(i.e., bidding keyword) rewriting is fundamental to sponsored search, transforming noisy user queries into semantically relevant and commercially valuable keywords. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) improve semantic relevance through generative retrieval frameworks, but they rarely encode the commercial value of keywords. As a result, rewrites are often semantically correct yet economically suboptimal, and a reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) stage is usually added after supervised fine-tuning(SFT) to mitigate this deficiency. However, conventional preference alignment frequently overemphasize the ordering of bidword values and is susceptible to overfitting, which degrades rewrite quality. In addition, bidword value changes rapidly, while existing generative methods do not respond to these fluctuations. To address this shortcoming, we introduce VALUE(Value-Aware Large language model for qUery rewriting via wEighted trie), a framework that integrates value awareness directly into generation and enhances value alignment during training. VALUE employs the Weighted Trie, a novel variant of the classical trie that stores real-time value signals for each token. During decoding, the framework adjusts the LLM's token probabilities with these signals, constraining the search space and steering generation toward high-value rewrites. The alignment stage uses a fine-grained preference learning strategy that emphasizes stable, high-value differences and down-weights noisy or transient fluctuations, thereby improving robustness and reducing overfitting. Offline experiments show that VALUE significantly outperforms baselines in both semantic matching and value-centric metrics. VALUE has been deployed on our advertising system since October 2024 and served the Double Eleven promotions, the biggest shopping carnival in China.
ContrastScore: Towards Higher Quality, Less Biased, More Efficient Evaluation Metrics with Contrastive Evaluation
Wang, Xiao, Larionov, Daniil, Wu, Siwei, Liu, Yiqi, Eger, Steffen, Moosavi, Nafise Sadat, Lin, Chenghua
Evaluating the quality of generated text automatically remains a significant challenge. Conventional reference-based metrics have been shown to exhibit relatively weak correlation with human evaluations. Recent research advocates the use of large language models (LLMs) as source-based metrics for natural language generation (NLG) assessment. While promising, LLM-based metrics, particularly those using smaller models, still fall short in aligning with human judgments. In this work, we introduce ContrastScore, a contrastive evaluation metric designed to enable higher-quality, less biased, and more efficient assessment of generated text. We evaluate ContrastScore on two NLG tasks: machine translation and summarization. Experimental results show that ContrastScore consistently achieves stronger correlation with human judgments than both single-model and ensemble-based baselines. Notably, ContrastScore based on Qwen 3B and 0.5B even outperforms Qwen 7B, despite having only half as many parameters, demonstrating its efficiency. Furthermore, it effectively mitigates common evaluation biases such as length and likelihood preferences, resulting in more robust automatic evaluation.
APRIL: Annotations for Policy evaluation with Reliable Inference from LLMs
Mandyam, Aishwarya, Limaye, Kalyani, Engelhardt, Barbara E., Alsentzer, Emily
Off-policy evaluation (OPE) estimates the value of a contextual bandit policy prior to deployment. As such, OPE plays a critical role in ensuring safety in high-stakes domains such as healthcare. However, standard OPE approaches are limited by the size and coverage of the behavior dataset. While previous work has explored using expert-labeled counterfactual annotations to enhance dataset coverage, obtaining such annotations is expensive, limiting the scalability of prior approaches. We propose leveraging large language models (LLMs) to generate counterfactual annotations for OPE in medical domains. Our method uses domain knowledge to guide LLMs in predicting how key clinical features evolve under alternate treatments. These predicted features can then be transformed using known reward functions to create counterfactual annotations. We first evaluate the ability of several LLMs to predict clinical features across two patient subsets in MIMIC-IV, finding that state-of-the-art LLMs achieve comparable performance. Building on this capacity to predict clinical features, we generate LLM-based counterfactual annotations and incorporate them into an OPE estimator. Our empirical results analyze the benefits of counterfactual annotations under varying degrees of shift between the behavior and target policies. We find that in most cases, the LLM-based counterfactual annotations significantly improve OPE estimates up to a point. We provide an entropy-based metric to identify when additional annotations cease to be useful. Our results demonstrate that LLM-based counterfactual annotations offer a scalable approach for addressing coverage limitations in healthcare datasets, enabling safer deployment of decision-making policies in clinical settings.
Point of Order: Action-Aware LLM Persona Modeling for Realistic Civic Simulation
Merrill, Scott, Srivastava, Shashank
Large language models offer opportunities to simulate multi-party deliberation, but realistic modeling remains limited by a lack of speaker-attributed data. Transcripts produced via automatic speech recognition (ASR) assign anonymous speaker labels (e.g., Speaker_1), preventing models from capturing consistent human behavior. This work introduces a reproducible pipeline to transform public Zoom recordings into speaker-attributed transcripts with metadata like persona profiles and pragmatic action tags (e.g., [propose_motion]). We release three local government deliberation datasets: Appellate Court hearings, School Board meetings, and Municipal Council sessions. Fine-tuning LLMs to model specific participants using this "action-aware" data produces a 67% reduction in perplexity and nearly doubles classifier-based performance metrics for speaker fidelity and realism. Turing-style human evaluations show our simulations are often indistinguishable from real deliberations, providing a practical and scalable method for complex realistic civic simulations.
Adaptive Layer-Wise Transformations for Post-Training Quantization of Large Language Models
Pham, Cuong, Dung, Hoang Anh, Nguyen, Cuong C., Le, Trung, Carneiro, Gustavo, Cai, Jianfei, Do, Thanh-Toan
Large language models require significant computational resources for deployment, making quantization essential for practical applications. However, the main obstacle to effective quantization lies in systematic outliers in activations and weights, which cause substantial LLM performance degradation, especially at low-bit settings. While existing transformation-based methods like affine and rotation transformations successfully mitigate outliers, they apply the homogeneous transformation setting, i.e., using the same transformation types across all layers, ignoring the heterogeneous distribution characteristics within LLMs. In this paper, we propose an adaptive transformation selection framework that systematically determines optimal transformations on a per-layer basis. To this end, we first formulate transformation selection as a differentiable optimization problem to achieve the accurate transformation type for each layer. However, searching for optimal layer-wise transformations for every model is computationally expensive. To this end, we establish the connection between weight distribution kurtosis and accurate transformation type. Specifically, we propose an outlier-guided layer selection method using robust $z$-score normalization that achieves comparable performance to differentiable search with significantly reduced overhead. Comprehensive experiments on LLaMA family models demonstrate that our adaptive approach consistently outperforms the widely-used fixed transformation settings. For example, our method achieves an improvement of up to 4.58 perplexity points and a 2.11% gain in average six-task zero-shot accuracy under aggressive W3A3K2V2 quantization settings for the LLaMA-3-8B model compared to the current best existing method, FlatQuant, demonstrating the necessity of heterogeneous transformation selection for optimal LLM quantization.