The poster child of the AI boom, valued at $850bn, needs to show strategic discipline after'casting its net too wide' If OpenAI is going to float this year, it has to get serious about its business model. The wow factor around the US company - the poster child of an AI industry boom that has stoked fears of a stock market bubble - has been long established, but when will the profits come? The developer of ChatGPT is one of the biggest startups in the world and is now valued at $850bn (£645bn). Meanwhile, it is reportedly spending $600bn on infrastructure (the amount it invests in datacentres and chips to power its AI models) by 2030. At least this is a reduction on an initial estimate of $1.4tn .

Chinchilla Approach 2 is among the most widely used methods for fitting neural scaling laws. Its parabolic approximation introduces systematic biases in compute-optimal allocation estimates, even on noise-free synthetic data. Applied to published Llama 3 IsoFLOP data at open frontier compute scales, these biases imply a parameter underallocation corresponding to 6.5% of the $3.8\times10^{25}$ FLOP training budget and \$1.4M (90% CI: \$412K-\$2.9M) in unnecessary compute at 50% H100 MFU. Simulated multimodal model misallocations show even greater opportunity costs due to higher loss surface asymmetry. Three sources of this error are examined: IsoFLOP sampling grid width (Taylor approximation accuracy), uncentered IsoFLOP sampling, and loss surface asymmetry ($α\neq β$). Chinchilla Approach 3 largely eliminates these biases but is often regarded as less data-efficient, numerically unstable, prone to local minima, and harder to implement. Each concern is shown to be unfounded or addressable, especially when the partially linear structure of the objective is exploited via Variable Projection, enabling unbiased inference on all five loss surface parameters through a two-dimensional optimization that is well-conditioned, analytically differentiable, and amenable to dense, or even exhaustive, grid search. It may serve as a more convenient replacement for Approach 2 or a more scalable alternative for adaptations of Approach 3 to richer scaling law formulations. See https://github.com/Open-Athena/vpnls for details and https://openathena.ai/scaling-law-analysis for other results from this study.

We study the problem of routing queries to large language models (LLMs) under cost, GPU resources, and concurrency constraints. Prior per-query routing methods often fail to control batch-level cost, especially under non-uniform or adversarial batching. To address this, we propose a batch-level, resource-aware routing framework that jointly optimizes model assignment for each batch while respecting cost and model capacity limits. We further introduce a robust variant that accounts for uncertainty in predicted LLM performance, along with an offline instance allocation procedure that balances quality and throughput across multiple models. Experiments on two multi-task LLM benchmarks show that robustness improves accuracy by 1-14% over non-robust counterparts (depending on the performance estimator), batch-level routing outperforms per-query methods by up to 24% under adversarial batching, and optimized instance allocation yields additional gains of up to 3% compared to a non-optimized allocation, all while strictly controlling cost and GPU resource constraints.

Evolve-based agent such as AlphaEvolve is one of the notable successes in using Large Language Models (LLMs) to build AI Scientists. These agents tackle open-ended scientific problems by iteratively improving and evolving programs, leveraging the prior knowledge and reasoning capabilities of LLMs. Despite the success, existing evolve-based agents lack targeted guidance for evolution and effective mechanisms for organizing and utilizing knowledge acquired from past evolutionary experience. Consequently, they suffer from decreasing evolution efficiency and exhibit oscillatory behavior when approaching known performance boundaries. To mitigate the gap, we develop CausalEvolve, equipped with a causal scratchpad that leverages LLMs to identify and reason about guiding factors for evolution. At the beginning, CausalEvolve first identifies outcome-level factors that offer complementary inspirations in improving the target objective. During the evolution, CausalEvolve also inspects surprise patterns during the evolution and abductive reasoning to hypothesize new factors, which in turn offer novel directions. Through comprehensive experiments, we show that CausalEvolve effectively improves the evolutionary efficiency and discovers better solutions in 4 challenging open-ended scientific tasks.

Text-to-time-series generation is particularly important in meteorology, where natural language offers intuitive control over complex, multi-scale atmospheric dynamics. Existing approaches are constrained by the lack of large-scale, physically grounded multimodal datasets and by architectures that overlook the spectral-temporal structure of weather signals. We address these challenges with a unified framework for text-guided meteorological time-series generation. First, we introduce MeteoCap-3B, a billion-scale weather dataset paired with expert-level captions constructed via a Multi-agent Collaborative Captioning (MACC) pipeline, yielding information-dense and physically consistent annotations. Building on this dataset, we propose MTransformer, a diffusion-based model that enables precise semantic control by mapping textual descriptions into multi-band spectral priors through a Spectral Prompt Generator, which guides generation via frequency-aware attention. Extensive experiments on real-world benchmarks demonstrate state-of-the-art generation quality, accurate cross-modal alignment, strong semantic controllability, and substantial gains in downstream forecasting under data-sparse and zero-shot settings. Additional results on general time-series benchmarks indicate that the proposed framework generalizes beyond meteorology.

We present AutoStan, a framework in which a command-line interface (CLI) coding agent autonomously builds and iteratively improves Bayesian models written in Stan. The agent operates in a loop, writing a Stan model file, executing MCMC sampling, then deciding whether to keep or revert each change based on two complementary feedback signals: the negative log predictive density (NLPD) on held-out data and the sampler's own diagnostics (divergences, R-hat, effective sample size). We evaluate AutoStan on five datasets with diverse modeling structures. On a synthetic regression dataset with outliers, the agent progresses from naive linear regression to a model with Student-t robustness, nonlinear heteroscedastic structure, and an explicit contamination mixture, matching or outperforming TabPFN, a state-of-the-art black-box method, while remaining fully interpretable. Across four additional experiments, the same mechanism discovers hierarchical partial pooling, varying-slope models with correlated random effects, and a Poisson attack/defense model for soccer. No search algorithm, critic module, or domain-specific instructions are needed. This is, to our knowledge, the first demonstration that a CLI coding agent can autonomously write and iteratively improve Stan code for diverse Bayesian modeling problems.

Ten years ago, AlphaGo trounced human competitors--and its legacy is still present in today's most advanced bots. Thore Graepel may have been the first human to be vanquished by a superintelligence. In 2015, on his first day as a researcher at Google DeepMind, he was challenged to play against the earliest iteration of AlphaGo--a computer program developed by DeepMind that would prove so effective at the ancient-Chinese game of (or Go, as it is commonly known in the West) that it changed how humans play it, and then upended the field of AI itself. When Graepel faced it, AlphaGo was just a "baby" project, as he put it to me, and he was an accomplished amateur player. But it still took him down.

In deploying artificial intelligence (AI) models, selective prediction offers the option to abstain from making a prediction when uncertain about model quality. To fulfill its promise, it is crucial to enforce strict and precise error control over cases where the model is trusted. We propose Selective Conformal Risk control with E-values (SCoRE), a new framework for deriving such decisions for any trained model and any user-defined, bounded and continuously-valued risk. SCoRE offers two types of guarantees on the risk among ``positive'' cases in which the system opts to trust the model. Built upon conformal inference and hypothesis testing ideas, SCoRE first constructs a class of (generalized) e-values, which are non-negative random variables whose product with the unknown risk has expectation no greater than one. Such a property is ensured by data exchangeability without requiring any modeling assumptions. Passing these e-values on to hypothesis testing procedures, we yield the binary trust decisions with finite-sample error control. SCoRE avoids the need of uniform concentration, and can be readily extended to settings with distribution shifts. We evaluate the proposed methods with simulations and demonstrate their efficacy through applications to error management in drug discovery, health risk prediction, and large language models.

The company's sudden decision to pull the plug on Sora is a sign of deeper trouble. When I opened Sora this morning, I was met with a flood of strange and disturbing AI-generated videos. On OpenAI's video app, I scrolled through fabricated scenes of the Iran war and a barrage of fake Donald Trumps blabbering about Jeffrey Epstein. In my least favorite clip, I watched a man deep-fry an infant. The app lets users create fairly realistic-looking AI-generated clips--including of their own likeness--and then post them on a TikTok-like feed.

Knowledge distillation has emerged as a powerful technique for compressing large language models (LLMs) into efficient, deployable architectures while preserving their advanced capabilities. Recent advances in low-rank knowledge distillation, particularly methods like Low-Rank Clone (LRC), have demonstrated remarkable empirical success, achieving comparable performance to full-parameter distillation with significantly reduced training data and computational overhead. However, the theoretical foundations underlying these methods remain poorly understood. In this paper, we establish a rigorous theoretical framework for low-rank knowledge distillation in language models. We prove that under mild assumptions, low-rank projection preserves the optimization dynamics, yielding explicit convergence rates of $O(1/\sqrt{T})$. We derive generalization bounds that characterize the fundamental trade-off between model compression and generalization capability, showing that the generalization error scales with the rank parameter as $O(r(m+n)/\sqrt{n})$. Furthermore, we provide an information-theoretic analysis of the activation cloning mechanism, revealing its role in maximizing the mutual information between the teacher's and student's intermediate representations. Our theoretical results offer principled guidelines for rank selection, mathematically suggesting an optimal rank $r^* = O(\sqrt{n})$ where $n$ is the sample size. Experimental validation on standard language modeling benchmarks confirms our theoretical predictions, demonstrating that the empirical convergence, rank scaling, and generalization behaviors align closely with our bounds.