In this work, we propose a model-agnostic instance-based post-hoc explainability method for time series classification. The proposed algorithm, namely Time-CF, leverages shapelets and TimeGAN to provide counterfactual explanations for arbitrary time series classifiers. We validate the proposed method on several real-world univariate time series classification tasks from the UCR Time Series Archive. The results indicate that the counterfactual instances generated by Time-CF when compared to state-of-the-art methods, demonstrate better performance in terms of four explainability metrics: closeness, sensibility, plausibility, and sparsity.

In the realm of interactive machine-learning systems, the provision of explanations serves as a vital aid in the processes of debugging and enhancing prediction models. However, the extent to which various global model-centric and data-centric explanations can effectively assist domain experts in detecting and resolving potential data-related issues for the purpose of model improvement has remained largely unexplored. In this technical report, we summarise the key findings of our two user studies. Our research involved a comprehensive examination of the impact of global explanations rooted in both data-centric and model-centric perspectives within systems designed to support healthcare experts in optimising machine learning models through both automated and manual data configurations. To empirically investigate these dynamics, we conducted two user studies, comprising quantitative analysis involving a sample size of 70 healthcare experts and qualitative assessments involving 30 healthcare experts. These studies were aimed at illuminating the influence of different explanation types on three key dimensions: trust, understandability, and model improvement. Results show that global model-centric explanations alone are insufficient for effectively guiding users during the intricate process of data configuration. In contrast, data-centric explanations exhibited their potential by enhancing the understanding of system changes that occur post-configuration. However, a combination of both showed the highest level of efficacy for fostering trust, improving understandability, and facilitating model enhancement among healthcare experts. We also present essential implications for developing interactive machine-learning systems driven by explanations. These insights can guide the creation of more effective systems that empower domain experts to harness the full potential of machine learning

Explanations in interactive machine-learning systems facilitate debugging and improving prediction models. However, the effectiveness of various global model-centric and data-centric explanations in aiding domain experts to detect and resolve potential data issues for model improvement remains unexplored. This research investigates the influence of data-centric and model-centric global explanations in systems that support healthcare experts in optimising models through automated and manual data configurations. We conducted quantitative (n=70) and qualitative (n=30) studies with healthcare experts to explore the impact of different explanations on trust, understandability and model improvement. Our results reveal the insufficiency of global model-centric explanations for guiding users during data configuration. Although data-centric explanations enhanced understanding of post-configuration system changes, a hybrid fusion of both explanation types demonstrated the highest effectiveness. Based on our study results, we also present design implications for effective explanation-driven interactive machine-learning systems.

Explanations of machine learning models are important, especially in scientific areas such as chemistry, biology, and physics, where they guide future laboratory experiments and resource requirements. These explanations can be derived from well-trained machine learning models (data-driven perspective) or specific domain knowledge (domain-driven perspective). However, there exist inconsistencies between these perspectives due to accurate yet misleading machine learning models and various stakeholders with specific needs, wants, or aims. This paper calls attention to these inconsistencies and suggests a way to find an accurate model with expected explanations that reinforce physical laws and meet stakeholders' requirements from a set of equally-good models, also known as Rashomon sets. Our goal is to foster a comprehensive understanding of these inconsistencies and ultimately contribute to the integration of eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) into scientific domains.

This paper addresses the unique challenges associated with uncertainty quantification in AI models when applied to patient-facing contexts within healthcare. Unlike traditional eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) methods tailored for model developers or domain experts, additional considerations of communicating in natural language, its presentation and evaluating understandability are necessary. We identify the challenges in communication model performance, confidence, reasoning and unknown knowns using natural language in the context of risk prediction. We propose a design aimed at addressing these challenges, focusing on the specific application of in-vitro fertilisation outcome prediction.

Explainable AI has brought transparency into complex ML blackboxes, enabling, in particular, to identify which features these models use for their predictions. So far, the question of explaining predictive uncertainty, i.e. why a model 'doubts', has been scarcely studied. Our investigation reveals that predictive uncertainty is dominated by second-order effects, involving single features or product interactions between them. We contribute a new method for explaining predictive uncertainty based on these second-order effects. Computationally, our method reduces to a simple covariance computation over a collection of first-order explanations. Our method is generally applicable, allowing for turning common attribution techniques (LRP, Gradient x Input, etc.) into powerful second-order uncertainty explainers, which we call CovLRP, CovGI, etc. The accuracy of the explanations our method produces is demonstrated through systematic quantitative evaluations, and the overall usefulness of our method is demonstrated via two practical showcases.

There are now many explainable AI methods for understanding the decisions of a machine learning model. Among these are those based on counterfactual reasoning, which involve simulating features changes and observing the impact on the prediction. This article proposes to view this simulation process as a source of creating a certain amount of knowledge that can be stored to be used, later, in different ways. This process is illustrated in the additive model and, more specifically, in the case of the naive Bayes classifier, whose interesting properties for this purpose are shown.

Counterfactual Explanations (CE) is the de facto method for providing insight and interpretability in black-box decision-making models by identifying alternative input instances that lead to different outcomes. This paper extends the concept of CEs to a distributional context, broadening the scope from individual data points to entire input and output distributions, named Distributional Counterfactual Explanation (DCE). In DCE, our focus shifts to analyzing the distributional properties of the factual and counterfactual, drawing parallels to the classical approach of assessing individual instances and their resulting decisions. We leverage Optimal Transport (OT) to frame a chance-constrained optimization problem, aiming to derive a counterfactual distribution that closely aligns with its factual counterpart, substantiated by statistical confidence. Our proposed optimization method, DISCOUNT, strategically balances this confidence across both input and output distributions. This algorithm is accompanied by an analysis of its convergence rate. The efficacy of our proposed method is substantiated through a series of illustrative case studies, highlighting its potential in providing deep insights into decision-making models.

The emergence of multimodal large models (MLMs) has significantly advanced the field of visual understanding, offering remarkable capabilities in the realm of visual question answering (VQA). Yet, the true challenge lies in the domain of knowledge-intensive VQA tasks, which necessitate not just recognition of visual elements, but also a deep comprehension of the visual information in conjunction with a vast repository of learned knowledge. To uncover such capabilities of MLMs, particularly the newly introduced GPT-4V, we provide an in-depth evaluation from three perspectives: 1) Commonsense Knowledge, which assesses how well models can understand visual cues and connect to general knowledge; 2) Fine-grained World Knowledge, which tests the model's skill in reasoning out specific knowledge from images, showcasing their proficiency across various specialized fields; 3) Comprehensive Knowledge with Decision-making Rationales, which examines model's capability to provide logical explanations for its inference, facilitating a deeper analysis from the interpretability perspective. Extensive experiments indicate that GPT-4V achieves SOTA performance on above three tasks. Interestingly, we find that: a) GPT-4V demonstrates enhanced reasoning and explanation when using composite images as few-shot; b) GPT-4V produces severe hallucinations when dealing with world knowledge, highlighting the future need for advancements in this research direction.

Counterfactual explanations, and their associated algorithmic recourse, are typically leveraged to understand, explain, and potentially alter a prediction coming from a black-box classifier. In this paper, we propose to extend the use of counterfactuals to evaluate progress in sequential decision making tasks. To this end, we introduce a model-agnostic modular framework, TraCE (Trajectory Counterfactual Explanation) scores, which is able to distill and condense progress in highly complex scenarios into a single value. We demonstrate TraCE's utility across domains by showcasing its main properties in two case studies spanning healthcare and climate change.