Explanation & Argumentation
Explainable AI for Predicting and Understanding Mathematics Achievement: A Cross-National Analysis of PISA 2018
Understanding the factors that shape students' mathematics performance is vital for designing effective educational policies. This study applies explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques to PISA 2018 data to predict math achievement and identify key predictors across ten countries (67,329 students). We tested four models: Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Random Forest (RF), CATBoost, and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), using student, family, and school variables. Models were trained on 70% of the data (with 5-fold cross-validation) and tested on 30%, stratified by country. Performance was assessed with R^2 and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). To ensure interpretability, we used feature importance, SHAP values, and decision tree visualizations. Non-linear models, especially RF and ANN, outperformed MLR, with RF balancing accuracy and generalizability. Key predictors included socio-economic status, study time, teacher motivation, and students' attitudes toward mathematics, though their impact varied across countries. Visual diagnostics such as scatterplots of predicted vs actual scores showed RF and CATBoost aligned closely with actual performance. Findings highlight the non-linear and context-dependent nature of achievement and the value of XAI in educational research. This study uncovers cross-national patterns, informs equity-focused reforms, and supports the development of personalized learning strategies.
To Explain Or Not To Explain: An Empirical Investigation Of AI-Based Recommendations On Social Media Platforms
Haque, AKM Bahalul, Islam, A. K. M. Najmul, Mikalef, Patrick
AI based social media recommendations have great potential to improve the user experience. However, often these recommendations do not match the user interest and create an unpleasant experience for the users. Moreover, the recommendation system being a black box creates comprehensibility and transparency issues. This paper investigates social media recommendations from an end user perspective. For the investigation, we used the popular social media platform Facebook and recruited regular users to conduct a qualitative analysis. We asked participants about the social media content suggestions, their comprehensibility, and explainability. Our analysis shows users mostly require explanation whenever they encounter unfamiliar content and to ensure their online data security. Furthermore, the users require concise, non-technical explanations along with the facility of controlled information flow. In addition, we observed that explanations impact the users perception of transparency, trust, and understandability. Finally, we have outlined some design implications and presented a synthesized framework based on our data analysis.
CoFE: A Framework Generating Counterfactual ECG for Explainable Cardiac AI-Diagnostics
Jang, Jong-Hwan, Song, Junho, Jo, Yong-Yeon
Recognizing the need for explainable AI (XAI) approaches to enable the successful integration of AI-based ECG prediction models (AI-ECG) into clinical practice, we introduce a framework generating \textbf{Co}unter\textbf{F}actual \textbf{E}CGs (i,e., named CoFE) to illustrate how specific features, such as amplitudes and intervals, influence the model's predictive decisions. To demonstrate the applicability of the CoFE, we present two case studies: atrial fibrillation classification and potassium level regression models. The CoFE reveals feature changes in ECG signals that align with the established clinical knowledge. By clarifying both \textbf{where valid features appear} in the ECG and \textbf{how they influence the model's predictions}, we anticipate that our framework will enhance the interpretability of AI-ECG models and support more effective clinical decision-making. Our demonstration video is available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YoW0bNBPglQ.
Physics-Based Explainable AI for ECG Segmentation: A Lightweight Model
Sidiq, Muhammad Fathur Rohman, Abdurrouf, null, Santoso, Didik Rahadi
Physics - Based Explainable AI for ECG Segmentation: A Lightweight Model Muhammad Fathur Rohman Sidiq Department of Physics, Faculty of Mathematics and Science, Brawijaya University, Malang, Indonesia Abdurrouf Department of Physics, Faculty of Mathematics and Science, Brawijaya University, Malang, Indonesia Didik Rahadi Santoso * Department of Physics, Faculty of Mathematics and Science, Brawijaya University, Malang, Indonesia * Corresponding author. E - mail: dieks@ub.ac.id Abstract The heart's electrical activity, recorded through Electrocardiography (ECG), is essential for diagnosing various cardiovascular conditions. However, many existing ECG segmentation models rely on complex, multi - layered architectures such as BiLSTM, which ar e computationally intensive and inefficient. This study introduces a streamlined architecture that combines spectral analysis with probabilistic predictions for ECG signal segmentation. Additionally, an Explainable AI (XAI) approach is applied to enhance model interpretability by explaining how temporal and frequency - based features contribute to ECG segmentation. By i ncorporating principles from physics - based AI, this method provides a clear understanding of the decision - making process, ensuring reliability and transparency in ECG analysis.
Comparative Explanations: Explanation Guided Decision Making for Human-in-the-Loop Preference Selection
Chakraborty, Tanmay, Wirth, Christian, Seifert, Christin
This paper introduces Multi-Output LOcal Narrative Explanation (MOLONE), a novel comparative explanation method designed to enhance preference selection in human-in-the-loop Preference Bayesian optimization (PBO). The preference elicitation in PBO is a non-trivial task because it involves navigating implicit trade-offs between vector-valued outcomes, subjective priorities of decision-makers, and decision-makers' uncertainty in preference selection. Existing explainable AI (XAI) methods for BO primarily focus on input feature importance, neglecting the crucial role of outputs (objectives) in human preference elicitation. MOLONE addresses this gap by providing explanations that highlight both input and output importance, enabling decision-makers to understand the trade-offs between competing objectives and make more informed preference selections. MOLONE focuses on local explanations, comparing the importance of input features and outcomes across candidate samples within a local neighborhood of the search space, thus capturing nuanced differences relevant to preference-based decision-making. We evaluate MOLONE within a PBO framework using benchmark multi-objective optimization functions, demonstrating its effectiveness in improving convergence compared to noisy preference selections. Furthermore, a user study confirms that MOLONE significantly accelerates convergence in human-in-the-loop scenarios by facilitating more efficient identification of preferred options.
Reasoning is about giving reasons
Convincing someone of the truth value of a premise requires understanding and articulating the core logical structure of the argument which proves or disproves the premise. Understanding the logical structure of an argument refers to understanding the underlying "reasons" which make up the proof or disproof of the premise - as a function of the "logical atoms" in the argument. While it has been shown that transformers can "chain" rules to derive simple arguments, the challenge of articulating the "reasons" remains. Not only do current approaches to chaining rules suffer in terms of their interpretability, they are also quite constrained in their ability to accommodate extensions to theoretically equivalent reasoning tasks - a model trained to chain rules cannot support abduction or identify contradictions. In this work we suggest addressing these shortcomings by identifying an intermediate representation (which we call the Representation of the Logical Structure (RLS) of the argument) that possesses an understanding of the logical structure of a natural language argument - the logical atoms in the argument and the rules incorporating them. Given the logical structure, reasoning is deterministic and easy to compute. Therefore, our approach supports all forms of reasoning that depend on the logical structure of the natural language argument, including arbitrary depths of reasoning, on-the-fly mistake rectification and interactive discussion with respect to an argument. We show that we can identify and extract the logical structure of natural language arguments in three popular reasoning datasets with high accuracies, thus supporting explanation generation and extending the reasoning capabilities significantly.
A Fuzzy-Enhanced Explainable AI Framework for Flight Continuous Descent Operations Classification
Noroozi, Amin, Sethunge, Sandaruwan K., Norouzi, Elham, Phan, Phat T., Waduge, Kavinda U., Rahman, Md. Arafatur
Continuous Descent Operations (CDO) involve smooth, idle-thrust descents that avoid level-offs, reducing fuel burn, emissions, and noise while improving efficiency and passenger comfort. Despite its operational and environmental benefits, limited research has systematically examined the factors influencing CDO performance. Moreover, many existing methods in related areas, such as trajectory optimization, lack the transparency required in aviation, where explainability is critical for safety and stakeholder trust. This study addresses these gaps by proposing a Fuzzy-Enhanced Explainable AI (FEXAI) framework that integrates fuzzy logic with machine learning and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis. For this purpose, a comprehensive dataset of 29 features, including 11 operational and 18 weather-related features, was collected from 1,094 flights using Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) data. Machine learning models and SHAP were then applied to classify flights' CDO adherence levels and rank features by importance. The three most influential features, as identified by SHAP scores, were then used to construct a fuzzy rule-based classifier, enabling the extraction of interpretable fuzzy rules. All models achieved classification accuracies above 90%, with FEXAI providing meaningful, human-readable rules for operational users. Results indicated that the average descent rate within the arrival route, the number of descent segments, and the average change in directional heading during descent were the strongest predictors of CDO performance. The FEXAI method proposed in this study presents a novel pathway for operational decision support and could be integrated into aviation tools to enable real-time advisories that maintain CDO adherence under varying operational conditions.
Exploring Content and Social Connections of Fake News with Explainable Text and Graph Learning
Lourenรงo, Vรญtor N., Paes, Aline, Weyde, Tillman
The global spread of misinformation and concerns about content trustworthiness have driven the development of automated fact-checking systems. Since false information often exploits social media dynamics such as "likes" and user networks to amplify its reach, effective solutions must go beyond content analysis to incorporate these factors. Moreover, simply labelling content as false can be ineffective or even reinforce biases such as automation and confirmation bias. This paper proposes an explainable framework that combines content, social media, and graph-based features to enhance fact-checking. It integrates a misinformation classifier with explainability techniques to deliver complete and interpretable insights supporting classification decisions. Experiments demonstrate that multimodal information improves performance over single modalities, with evaluations conducted on datasets in English, Spanish, and Portuguese. Additionally, the framework's explanations were assessed for interpretability, trustworthiness, and robustness with a novel protocol, showing that it effectively generates human-understandable justifications for its predictions. The code and experiments are available at https://github.com/MeLLL-UFF/mu2X/ .
Learning Marked Temporal Point Process Explanations based on Counterfactual and Factual Reasoning
Liu, Sishun, Deng, Ke, Zhang, Xiuzhen, Wang, Yan
Neural network-based Marked Temporal Point Process (MTPP) models have been widely adopted to model event sequences in high-stakes applications, raising concerns about the trustworthiness of outputs from these models. This study focuses on Explanation for MTPP, aiming to identify the minimal and rational explanation, that is, the minimum subset of events in history, based on which the prediction accuracy of MTPP matches that based on full history to a great extent and better than that based on the complement of the subset. This study finds that directly defining Explanation for MTPP as counterfactual explanation or factual explanation can result in irrational explanations. To address this issue, we define Explanation for MTPP as a combination of counterfactual explanation and factual explanation. This study proposes Counterfactual and Factual Explainer for MTPP (CFF) to solve Explanation for MTPP with a series of deliberately designed techniques. Experiments demonstrate the correctness and superiority of CFF over baselines regarding explanation quality and processing efficiency.