Local linear regression performs very well in many low-dimensional forecasting problems. In high-dimensional spaces, its performance typically decays due to the well-known "curse-of-dimensionality". A possible way to approach this problem is by varying the "shape" of the weighting kernel. In this work we suggest a new, data-driven method to estimating the optimal kernel shape. Experiments using an artificially generated data set and data from the UC Irvine repository show the benefits of kernel shaping. 1 Introduction Local linear regression has attracted considerable attention in both statistical and machine learning literature as a flexible tool for nonparametric regression analysis [Cle79, FG96, AMS97]. Like most statistical smoothing approaches, local modeling suffers from the so-called "curse-of-dimensionality", the well-known fact that the proportion of the training data that lie in a fixed-radius neighborhood of a point decreases to zero at an exponential rate with increasing dimension of the input space.

Transduction is an inference principle that takes a training sample and aims at estimating the values of a function at given points contained in the so-called working sample as opposed to the whole of input space for induction. Transduction provides a confidence measure on single predictions rather than classifiers - a feature particularly important for risk-sensitive applications. The possibly infinite number of functions is reduced to a finite number of equivalence classes on the working sample. A rigorous Bayesian analysis reveals that for standard classification loss we cannot benefit from considering more than one test point at a time. The probability of the label of a given test point is determined as the posterior measure of the corresponding subset of hypothesis space. We consider the PAC setting of binary classification by linear discriminant functions (perceptrons) in kernel space such that the probability of labels is determined by the volume ratio in version space. We suggest to sample this region by an ergodic billiard. Experimental results on real world data indicate that Bayesian Transduction compares favourably to the well-known Support Vector Machine, in particular if the posterior probability of labellings is used as a confidence measure to exclude test points of low confidence.

Suppose you are given some dataset drawn from an underlying probability distribution P and you want to estimate a "simple" subset S of input space such that the probability that a test point drawn from P lies outside of S equals some a priori specified

Often a learning problem has natural quantitative measure of generalization. If a loss function is defined the natural measure is the generalization error, i.e., the expected loss on a random sample independent of the training set. Generalizability is a key topic of learning theory and much progress has been reported. Analytic results for a broad class of machines can be found in the litterature [8, 12, 9, 10] describing the asymptotic generalization ability of supervised algorithms that are continuously parameterized. Asymptotic bounds on generalization for general machines have been advocated by Vapnik [11]. Generalization results valid for finite training sets can only be obtained for specific learning machines, see e.g.

The first two methods are related to mean field ideas known in Statistical Physics. The third approach is based on Bayesian online approach which was motivated by recent results in the Statistical Mechanics of Neural Networks. We present simulation results showing: 1. that the mean field Bayesian evidence may be used for hyperparameter tuning and 2. that the online approach may achieve a low training error fast. 1 Introduction Gaussian processes provide promising nonparametric Bayesian approaches to regression and classification [2, 1].

We present a new learning architecture: the Decision Directed Acyclic Graph (DDAG), which is used to combine many two-class classifiers into a multiclass classifier. For an N -class problem, the DDAG contains N(N - 1)/2 classifiers, one for each pair of classes. We present a VC analysis of the case when the node classifiers are hyperplanes; the resulting bound on the test error depends on N and on the margin achieved at the nodes, but not on the dimension of the space. This motivates an algorithm, DAGSVM, which operates in a kernel-induced feature space and uses two-class maximal margin hyperplanes at each decision-node of the DDAG. The DAGSVM is substantially faster to train and evaluate than either the standard algorithm or Max Wins, while maintaining comparable accuracy to both of these algorithms. 1 Introduction The problem of multiclass classificatIon, especially for systems like SVMs, doesn't present an easy solution. It is generally simpler to construct classifier theory and algorithms for two mutually-exclusive classes than for N mutually-exclusive classes.

Stochastic meta-descent (SMD) is a new technique for online adaptation of local learning rates in arbitrary twice-differentiable systems. Like matrix momentum it uses full second-order information while retaining O(n) computational complexity by exploiting the efficient computation of Hessian-vector products. Here we apply SMD to independent component analysis, and employ the resulting algorithm for the blind separation of time-varying mixtures. By matching individual learning rates to the rate of change in each source signal's mixture coefficients, our technique is capable of simultaneously tracking sources that move at very different, a priori unknown speeds.

There are many hierarchical clustering algorithms available, but these lack a firm statistical basis. Here we set up a hierarchical probabilistic mixture model, where data is generated in a hierarchical tree-structured manner. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are demonstrated which can be used to sample from the posterior distribution over trees containing variable numbers of hidden units.

Recently, sample complexity bounds have been derived for problems involving linear functions such as neural networks and support vector machines. In this paper, we extend some theoretical results in this area by deriving dimensional independent covering number bounds for regularized linear functions under certain regularization conditions. We show that such bounds lead to a class of new methods for training linear classifiers with similar theoretical advantages of the support vector machine. Furthermore, we also present a theoretical analysis for these new methods from the asymptotic statistical point of view. This technique provides better description for large sample behaviors of these algorithms.

We consider the problem of reconstructing a temporal discrete sequence of multidimensional real vectors when part of the data is missing, under the assumption that the sequence was generated by a continuous process. A particular case of this problem is multivariate regression, which is very difficult when the underlying mapping is one-to-many. We propose an algorithm based on a joint probability model of the variables of interest, implemented using a nonlinear latent variable model. Each point in the sequence is potentially reconstructed as any of the modes of the conditional distribution of the missing variables given the present variables (computed using an exhaustive mode search in a Gaussian mixture). Mode selection is determined by a dynamic programming search that minimises a geometric measure of the reconstructed sequence, derived from continuity constraints. We illustrate the algorithm with a toy example and apply it to a real-world inverse problem, the acoustic-toarticulatory mapping. The results show that the algorithm outperforms conditional mean imputation and multilayer perceptrons. 1 Definition of the problem