Data mining and knowledge discovery in databases have been attracting a significant amount of research, industry, and media attention of late. What is all the excitement about? This article provides an overview of this emerging field, clarifying how data mining and knowledge discovery in databases are related both to each other and to related fields, such as machine learning, statistics, and databases. The article mentions particular real-world applications, specific data-mining techniques, challenges involved in real-world applications of knowledge discovery, and current and future research directions in the field.

The value of scientific digital-image libraries seldom lies in the pixels of images. For large collections of images, such as those resulting from astronomy sky surveys, the typical useful product is an online database cataloging entries of interest. We focus on the automation of the cataloging effort of a major sky survey and the availability of digital libraries in general. The SKICAT system automates the reduction and analysis of the three terabytes worth of images, expected to contain on the order of 2 billion sky objects. For the primary scientific analysis of these data, it is necessary to detect, measure, and classify every sky object. SKICAT integrates techniques for image processing, classification learning, database management, and visualization. The learning algorithms are trained to classify the detected objects and can classify objects too faint for visual classification with an accuracy level exceeding 90 percent. This accuracy level increases the number of classified objects in the final catalog threefold relative to the best results from digitized photographic sky surveys to date. Hence, learning algorithms played a powerful and enabling role and solved a difficult, scientifically significant problem, enabling the consistent, accurate classification and the ease of access and analysis of an otherwise unfathomable data set.

Clustering is often used for discovering structure in data. Clustering systems differ in the objective function used to evaluate clustering quality and the control strategy used to search the space of clusterings. Ideally, the search strategy should consistently construct clusterings of high quality, but be computationally inexpensive as well. In general, we cannot have it both ways, but we can partition the search so that a system inexpensively constructs a `tentative' clustering for initial examination, followed by iterative optimization, which continues to search in background for improved clusterings. Given this motivation, we evaluate an inexpensive strategy for creating initial clusterings, coupled with several control strategies for iterative optimization, each of which repeatedly modifies an initial clustering in search of a better one. One of these methods appears novel as an iterative optimization strategy in clustering contexts. Once a clustering has been constructed it is judged by analysts -- often according to task-specific criteria. Several authors have abstracted these criteria and posited a generic performance task akin to pattern completion, where the error rate over completed patterns is used to `externally' judge clustering utility. Given this performance task, we adapt resampling-based pruning strategies used by supervised learning systems to the task of simplifying hierarchical clusterings, thus promising to ease post-clustering analysis. Finally, we propose a number of objective functions, based on attribute-selection measures for decision-tree induction, that might perform well on the error rate and simplicity dimensions.

Motivated by difficulties in analog VLSI implementation of back-propagation [Rumelhart et al., 1986] and related algorithms that calculate gradients based on detailed knowledge of the neural network model, there were several similar recent papers proposing to use a parallel [Alspector et al., 1993, Cauwenberghs, 1993, Kirk et al., 1993] or a semi-parallel [Flower and Jabri, 1993] perturbative technique which has the property that it measures (with the physical neural network) rather than calculates the gradient. This technique is closely related to methods of stochastic approximation [Kushner and Clark, 1978] which have been investigated recently by workers in fields other than neural networks.

The problem of interpolating between specified images in an image but important task in model-based vision.sequence is a simple, We describe an approach based on the abstract task of "manifold learning" and present results on both synthetic and real image sequences. This problem arose in the development of a combined lipreading and speech recognition system.

The TNM staging system has been used since the early 1960's to predict breast cancer patient outcome. In an attempt to increase putative prognostic factors haveprognostic accuracy, many the TNM stage model can not accommodatebeen identified.

If data collection is costly, there is much to be gained by actively selecting particularly informative data points in a sequential way. In a Bayesian decision-theoretic framework we develop a query selection criterion which explicitly takes into account the intended use of the model predictions. By Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods the necessary quantities can be approximated to a desired precision. As the number of data points grows, the model complexity is modified by a Bayesian model selection strategy. The properties of two versions of the criterion ate demonstrated in numerical experiments.

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This paper discusses the linearly weighted combination of estimators in which the weighting functions are dependent on the input. We show that the weighting functions can be derived either by evaluating the input dependent variance of each estimator or by estimating how likely it is that a given estimator has seen data in the region of the input space close to the input pattern. The latter solution is closely related to the mixture of experts approach and we show how learning rules for the mixture of experts can be derived from the theory about learning with missing features. The presented approaches are modular since the weighting functions can easily be modified (no retraining) if more estimators are added. Furthermore, it is easy to incorporate estimators which were not derived from data such as expert systems or algorithms.

MLP networks provided slightly better risk prediction than conventional logistic regression when used to predict the risk of death, stroke, and renal failure on 1257 patients who underwent coronary artery bypass operations. Bootstrap sampling was required to compare approaches and regularization provided by early stopping was an important component of improved performance. A simplified approach to generating confidence intervals for MLP risk predictions using an auxiliary "confidence MLP" was also developed. The confidence MLP is trained to reproduce the confidence bounds that were generated during training by 50 MLP networks trained using bootstrap samples. Current research is validating these results using larger data sets, exploring approaches to detect outlier patients who are so different from any training patient that accurate risk prediction is suspect, developing approaches to explaining which input features are important for an individual patient, and determining why MLP networks provide improved performance.