We introduce a constructive, incremental learning system for regression problems that models data by means of locally linear experts. In contrast to other approaches, the experts are trained independently and do not compete for data during learning. Only when a prediction for a query is required do the experts cooperate by blending their individual predictions. Each expert is trained by minimizing a penalized local cross validation error using second order methods. In this way, an expert is able to find a local distance metric by adjusting the size and shape of the receptive field in which its predictions are valid, and also to detect relevant input features by adjusting its bias on the importance of individual input dimensions. We derive asymptotic results for our method. In a variety of simulations the properties of the algorithm are demonstrated with respect to interference, learning speed, prediction accuracy, feature detection, and task oriented incremental learning.

A new approach for clustering is proposed. This method is based on an analogy to a physical model; the ferromagnetic Potts model at thermal equilibrium is used as an analog computer for this hard optimization problem. We do not assume any structure of the underlying distribution of the data. Phase space of the Potts model is divided into three regions; ferromagnetic, super-paramagnetic and paramagnetic phases. The region of interest is that corresponding to the super-paramagnetic one, where domains of aligned spins appear.

Our goal is to predict the class membership of an observation with predictor vector Xo Nearest neighbor classification is a simple and appealing approach to this problem.

"Family discovery" is the task of learning the dimension and structure of a parameterized family of stochastic models. It is especially appropriate when the training examples are partitioned into "episodes" of samples drawn from a single parameter value. We present three family discovery algorithms based on surface learning and show that they significantly improve performance over two alternatives on a parameterized classification task.

A theory of early stopping as applied to linear models is presented. The backpropagation learning algorithm is modeled as gradient descent in continuous time. Given a training set and a validation set, all weight vectors found by early stopping must lie on a certain quadric surface, usually an ellipsoid. Given a training set and a candidate early stopping weight vector, all validation sets have least-squares weights lying on a certain plane. This latter fact can be exploited to estimate the probability of stopping at any given point along the trajectory from the initial weight vector to the leastsquares weights derived from the training set, and to estimate the probability that training goes on indefinitely. The prospects for extending this theory to nonlinear models are discussed.

We analyze and compare the well-known Gradient Descent algorithm and a new algorithm, called the Exponentiated Gradient algorithm, for training a single neuron with an arbitrary transfer function. Both algorithms are easily generalized to larger neural networks, and the generalization of Gradient Descent is the standard back-propagation algorithm. In this paper we prove worstcase loss bounds for both algorithms in the single neuron case. Since local minima make it difficult to prove worst-case bounds for gradient-based algorithms, we must use a loss function that prevents the formation of spurious local minima. We define such a matching loss function for any strictly increasing differentiable transfer function and prove worst-case loss bound for any such transfer function and its corresponding matching loss. For example, the matching loss for the identity function is the square loss and the matching loss for the logistic sigmoid is the entropic loss. The different structure of the bounds for the two algorithms indicates that the new algorithm outperforms Gradient Descent when the inputs contain a large number of irrelevant components.

We consider the problem of online gradient descent learning for general two-layer neural networks. An analytic solution is presented and used to investigate the role of the learning rate in controlling the evolution and convergence of the learning process. Two-layer networks with an arbitrary number of hidden units have been shown to be universal approximators [1] for such N-to-one dimensional maps. We investigate the emergence of generalization ability in an online learning scenario [2], in which the couplings are modified after the presentation of each example so as to minimize the corresponding error. The resulting changes in {J} are described as a dynamical evolution; the number of examples plays the role of time.

James W. Howse Chaouki T. Abdallah Gregory L. Heileman Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering University of New Mexico Albuquerque, NM 87131 Abstract The process of machine learning can be considered in two stages: model selection and parameter estimation. In this paper a technique is presented for constructing dynamical systems with desired qualitative properties. The approach is based on the fact that an n-dimensional nonlinear dynamical system can be decomposed into one gradient and (n - 1) Hamiltonian systems. Thus, the model selection stage consists of choosing the gradient and Hamiltonian portions appropriately so that a certain behavior is obtainable. To estimate the parameters, a stably convergent learning rule is presented.

In this paper, recursive estimation algorithms for dynamic modular networks are developed. The models are based on Gaussian RBF networks and the gating network is considered in two stages: At first, it is simply a time-varying scalar and in the second, it is based on the state, as in the mixture of local experts scheme. The resulting algorithm uses Kalman filter estimation for the model estimation and the gating probability estimation. Both, 'hard' and'soft' competition based estimation schemes are developed where in the former, the most probable network is adapted and in the latter all networks are adapted by appropriate weighting of the data. 1 INTRODUCTION The problem of learning multiple modes in a complex nonlinear system is increasingly being studied by various researchers [2, 3, 4, 5, 6], The use of a mixture of local experts [5, 6], and a conditional mixture density network [3] have been developed to model various modes of a system. The development has mainly been on model estimation from a given set of block data, with the model likelihood dependent on the input to the networks.

The additive clustering (ADCL US) model (Shepard & Arabie, 1979) treats the similarity of two stimuli as a weighted additive measure of their common features. Inspired by recent work in unsupervised learning with multiple cause models, we propose anew, statistically well-motivated algorithm for discovering the structure of natural stimulus classes using the ADCLUS model, which promises substantial gains in conceptual simplicity, practical efficiency, and solution quality over earlier efforts.