While RLHF has demonstrated promising results, many algorithms are highly sensitive to misspecifications in the underlying preference model (e.g., the Bradley-Terry model), the reference policy, or the reward function, resulting in undesirable fine-tuning. To address model misspecification, we propose a doubly robust preference optimization algorithm that remains consistent when either the preference model or the reference policy is correctly specified (without requiring both). Our proposal demonstrates superior and more robust performance than state-of-the-art algorithms, both in theory and in practice.

The softmax-contaminated mixture of experts (MoE) model is deployed when a large-scale pre-trained model, which plays the role of a fixed expert, is fine-tuned for learning downstream tasks by including a new contamination part, or prompt, functioning as a new, trainable expert. Despite its popularity and relevance, the theoretical properties of the softmax-contaminated MoE have remained unexplored in the literature. In the paper, we study the convergence rates of the maximum likelihood estimator of gating and prompt parameters in order to gain insights into the statistical properties and potential challenges of fine-tuning with a new prompt. We find that the estimability of these parameters is compromised when the prompt acquires overlapping knowledge with the pre-trained model, in the sense that we make precise by formulating a novel analytic notion of distinguishability. Under distinguishability of the pre-trained and prompt models, we derive minimax optimal estimation rates for all the gating and prompt parameters. By contrast, when the distinguishability condition is violated, these estimation rates become significantly slower due to their dependence on the prompt convergence rate to the pre-trained model. Finally, we empirically corroborate our theoretical findings through several numerical experiments.

Time series data is prevalent across numerous fields, necessitating the development of robust and accurate forecasting models. Capturing patterns both within and between temporal and multivariate components is crucial for reliable predictions. We introduce xLSTM-Mixer, a model designed to effectively integrate temporal sequences, joint time-variate information, and multiple perspectives for robust forecasting. Our approach begins with a linear forecast shared across variates, which is then refined by xLSTM blocks. They serve as key elements for modeling the complex dynamics of challenging time series data.

Test-time adaptation aims to improve model robustness under distribution shifts by adapting models with access to unlabeled target samples. A primary cause of performance degradation under such shifts is the model's reliance on features that lack a direct causal relationship with the prediction target. We introduce Test-time Adaptation by Causal Trimming (TACT), a method that identifies and removes non-causal components from representations for test distributions. TACT applies data augmentations that preserve causal features while varying non-causal ones. By analyzing the changes in the representations using Principal Component Analysis, TACT identifies the highest variance directions associated with non-causal features. It trims the representations by removing their projections on the identified directions, and uses the trimmed representations for the predictions.

Perturbation-based explanations are widely utilized to enhance the transparency of machine-learning models in practice. However, their reliability is often compromised by the unknown model behavior under the specific perturbations used. This paper investigates the relationship between uncertainty calibration - the alignment of model confidence with actual accuracy - and perturbation-based explanations. We show that models systematically produce unreliable probability estimates when subjected to explainability-specific perturbations and theoretically prove that this directly undermines global and local explanation quality. To address this, we introduce ReCalX, a novel approach to recalibrate models for improved explanations while preserving their original predictions. Empirical evaluations across diverse models and datasets demonstrate that ReCalX consistently reduces perturbationspecific miscalibration most effectively while enhancing explanation robustness and the identification of globally important input features.

Time series segmentation is a fundamental task in analyzing temporal data across various domains, from human activity recognition to energy monitoring. While numerous state-of-the-art methods have been developed to tackle this problem, the evaluation of their performance remains critically limited. Existing measures predominantly focus on change point accuracy or rely on point-based measures such as Adjusted Rand Index (ARI), which fail to capture the quality of the detected segments, ignore the nature of errors, and offer limited interpretability. In this paper, we address these shortcomings by introducing two novel evaluation measures: WARI (Weighted Adjusted Rand Index), that accounts for the position of segmentation errors, and SMS (State Matching Score), a fine-grained measure that identifies and scores four fundamental types of segmentation errors while allowing error-specific weighting. We empirically validate WARI and SMS on synthetic and real-world benchmarks, showing that they not only provide a more accurate assessment of segmentation quality but also uncover insights, such as error provenance and type, that are inaccessible with traditional measures.

Differentially private stochastic gradient descent (DP-SGD) is the most widely used method for training machine learning models with provable privacy guarantees. A key challenge in DP-SGD is setting the per-sample gradient clipping threshold, which significantly affects the trade-off between privacy and utility. While recent adaptive methods improve performance by adjusting this threshold during training, they operate in the standard coordinate system and fail to account for correlations across the coordinates of the gradient. We propose GeoClip, a geometry-aware framework that clips and perturbs gradients in a transformed basis aligned with the geometry of the gradient distribution. GeoClip adaptively estimates this transformation using only previously released noisy gradients, incurring no additional privacy cost. We provide convergence guarantees for GeoClip and derive a closed-form solution for the optimal transformation that minimizes the amount of noise added while keeping the probability of gradient clipping under control. Experiments on both tabular and image datasets demonstrate that GeoClip consistently outperforms existing adaptive clipping methods under the same privacy budget.

Fraudulent activities have caused substantial negative social impacts and are exhibiting emerging characteristics such as intelligence and industrialization, posing challenges of high-order interactions, intricate dependencies, and the sparse yet concealed nature of fraudulent entities. Existing graph fraud detectors are limited by their narrow "receptive fields", as they focus only on the relations between an entity and its neighbors while neglecting longer-range structural associations hidden between entities. To address this issue, we propose a novel fraud detector based on Graph Path Aggregation (GPA). It operates through variable-length path sampling, semantic-associated path encoding, path interaction and aggregation, and aggregation-enhanced fraud detection. To further facilitate interpretable association analysis, we synthesize G-Internet, the first benchmark dataset in the field of internet fraud detection. Extensive experiments across datasets in multiple fraud scenarios demonstrate that the proposed GPA outperforms mainstream fraud detectors by up to +15% in Average Precision (AP). Additionally, GPA exhibits enhanced robustness to noisy labels and provides excellent interpretability by uncovering implicit fraudulent patterns across broader contexts.

In this manuscript, we analyze a solvable model of flow or diffusion-based generative model. We consider the problem of learning a model parametrized by a two-layer auto-encoder, trained with online stochastic gradient descent, on a highdimensional target density with an underlying low-dimensional manifold structure. We derive a tight asymptotic characterization of low-dimensional projections of the distribution of samples generated by the learned model, ascertaining in particular its dependence on the number of training samples. Building on this analysis, we discuss how mode collapse can arise, and lead to model collapse when the generative model is re-trained on generated synthetic data.

Ensemble learning is a popular technique to improve the accuracy of machine learning models. It traditionally hinges on the rationale that aggregating multiple weak models can lead to better models with lower variance and hence higher stability, especially for discontinuous base learners. In this paper, we provide a new perspective on ensembling. By selecting the most frequently generated model from the base learner when repeatedly applied to subsamples, we can attain exponentially decaying tails for the excess risk, even if the base learner suffers from slow (i.e., polynomial) decay rates. This tail enhancement power of ensembling applies to base learners that have reasonable predictive power to begin with and is stronger than variance reduction in the sense of exhibiting rate improvement. We demonstrate how our ensemble methods can substantially improve out-of-sample performances in a range of numerical examples involving heavy-tailed data or intrinsically slow rates.