BC Cancer Agency 601 West 10th Ave, Epidemiology 601 West 10th Ave, Epidemiology Vancouver BC Canada V5Z 1L3 Vancouver BC Canada V5Z 1L3 tap@comp.vuw.ac.nz Abstract Epidemiological data is traditionally analyzed with very simple techniques. Flexible models, such as neural networks, have the potential to discover unanticipated features in the data. However, to be useful, flexible models must have effective control on overfitting. This paper reports on a comparative study of the predictive quality of neural networks and other flexible models applied to real and artificial epidemiological data. The results suggest that there are no major unanticipated complex features in the real data, and also demonstrate that MacKay's [1995] Bayesian neural network methodology provides effective control on overfitting while retaining the ability to discover complex features in the artificial data. 1 Introduction Traditionally, very simple statistical techniques are used in the analysis of epidemiological studies.

The classes in classification tasks often have a natural ordering, and the training and testing examples are often incomplete. We propose a nonlinear ordinal model for classification into ordered classes. Predictive, simulation-based approaches are used to learn from past and classify future incomplete examples. These techniques are illustrated by making prognoses for patients who have suffered severe head injuries.

We present a mixture of experts (ME) approach to interpolate sparse, spatially correlated earth-science data. Kriging is an interpolation method which uses a global covariation model estimated from the data to take account of the spatial dependence in the data. Based on the close relationship between kriging and the radial basis function (RBF) network (Wan & Bone, 1996), we use a mixture of generalized RBF networks to partition the input space into statistically correlated regions and learn the local covariation model of the data in each region. Applying the ME approach to simulated and real-world data, we show that it is able to achieve good partitioning of the input space, learn the local covariation models and improve generalization.

The mortality related to cervical cancer can be substantially reduced through early detection and treatment. However, current detection techniques, such as Pap smear and colposcopy, fail to achieve a concurrently high sensitivity and specificity. In vivo fluorescence spectroscopy is a technique which quickly, noninvasively and quantitatively probes the biochemical and morphological changes that occur in precancerous tissue. RBF ensemble algorithms based on such spectra provide automated, and near realtime implementation of pre-cancer detection in the hands of nonexperts. The results are more reliable, direct and accurate than those achieved by either human experts or multivariate statistical algorithms. 1 Introduction Cervical carcinoma is the second most common cancer in women worldwide, exceeded only by breast cancer (Ramanujam et al., 1996). The mortality related to cervical cancer can be reduced if this disease is detected at the precancerous state, known as squamous intraepitheliallesion (SIL). Currently, a Pap smear is used to 982 K. Turner, N. Ramanujam, R. Richards-Kortum and J. Ghosh screen for cervical cancer {Kurman et al., 1994}. In a Pap test, a large number of cells obtained by scraping the cervical epithelium are smeared onto a slide which is then fixed and stained for cytologic examination.

In a communication network in which traffic sources can be dynamically added or removed, an access controller must decide when to accept or reject a new traffic source based on whether, if added, acceptable service would be given to all carried sources. Unlike best-effort services such as the internet, we consider the case where traffic sources are given quality of service (QoS) guarantees such as maximum delay, delay variation, or loss rate. The goal of the controller is to accept the maximal number of users while guaranteeing QoS. To accommodate diverse sources such as constant bit rate voice, variablerate video, and bursty computer data, packet-based protocols are used. We consider QOS in terms of lost packets (Le.

This paper describes how the early visual process of contour organisation can be realised using the EM algorithm. The underlying computational representation is based on fine spline coverings. According to our EM approach the adjustment of spline parameters draws on an iterative weighted least-squares fitting process. The expectation step of our EM procedure computes the likelihood of the data using a mixture model defined over the set of spline coverings. These splines are limited in their spatial extent using Gaussian windowing functions.

Field (1994) has suggested that neurons with line and edge selectivities found in primary visual cortex of cats and monkeys form a sparse, distributed representation of natural scenes, and Barlow (1989) has reasoned that such responses should emerge from an unsupervised learning algorithm that attempts to find a factorial code of independent visual features. We show here that nonlinear'infomax', when applied to an ensemble of natural scenes, produces sets of visual filters that are localised and oriented. Some of these filters are Gabor-like and resemble those produced by the sparseness-maximisation network of Olshausen & Field (1996). In addition, the outputs of these filters are as independent as possible, since the infomax network is able to perform Independent Components Analysis (ICA). We compare the resulting ICA filters and their associated basis functions, with other decorrelating filters produced by Principal Components Analysis (PCA) and zero-phase whitening filters (ZCA).

This paper discusses a fairly general adaptation algorithm which augments a standard neural network to increase its recognition accuracy for a specific user. The basis for the algorithm is that the output of a neural network is characteristic of the input, even when the output is incorrect. We exploit this characteristic output by using an Output Adaptation Module (OAM) which maps this output into the correct user-dependent confidence vector. The OAM is a simplified Resource Allocating Network which constructs radial basis functions online. We applied the OAM to construct a writer-adaptive character recognition system for online handprinted characters.

We present an algorithm for fast stochastic gradient descent that uses a nonlinear adaptive momentum scheme to optimize the late time convergence rate. The algorithm makes effective use of curvature information, requires only O(n) storage and computation, and delivers convergence rates close to the theoretical optimum. We demonstrate the technique on linear and large nonlinear backprop networks.

We address statistical classifier design given a mixed training set consisting of a small labelled feature set and a (generally larger) set of unlabelled features. This situation arises, e.g., for medical images, where although training features may be plentiful, expensive expertise is required to extract their class labels. We propose a classifier structure and learning algorithm that make effective use of unlabelled data to improve performance. The learning is based on maximization of the total data likelihood, i.e. over both the labelled and unlabelled data subsets. Two distinct EM learning algorithms are proposed, differing in the EM formalism applied for unlabelled data. The classifier, based on a joint probability model for features and labels, is a "mixture of experts" structure that is equivalent to the radial basis function (RBF) classifier, but unlike RBFs, is amenable to likelihood-based training. The scope of application for the new method is greatly extended by the observation that test data, or any new data to classify, is in fact additional, unlabelled data - thus, a combined learning/classification operation - much akin to what is done in image segmentation - can be invoked whenever there is new data to classify. Experiments with data sets from the UC Irvine database demonstrate that the new learning algorithms and structure achieve substantial performance gains over alternative approaches.