This paper addresses a method to analyze the covert social network foundation hidden behind the terrorism disaster. It is to solve a node discovery problem, which means to discover a node, which functions relevantly in a social network, but escaped from monitoring on the presence and mutual relationship of nodes. The method aims at integrating the expert investigator's prior understanding, insight on the terrorists' social network nature derived from the complex graph theory, and computational data processing. The social network responsible for the 9/11 attack in 2001 is used to execute simulation experiment to evaluate the performance of the method.

We consider the problem of adaptation to the margin and to complexity in binary classification. We suggest an exponential weighting aggregation scheme. We use this aggregation procedure to construct classifiers which adapt automatically to margin and complexity. Two main examples are worked out in which adaptivity is achieved in frameworks proposed by Steinwart and Scovel [Learning Theory. Lecture Notes in Comput. Sci. 3559 (2005) 279--294. Springer, Berlin; Ann. Statist. 35 (2007) 575--607] and Tsybakov [Ann. Statist. 32 (2004) 135--166]. Adaptive schemes, like ERM or penalized ERM, usually involve a minimization step. This is not the case for our procedure.

The adoption of probabilistic models for the best individuals found so far is a powerful approach for evolutionary computation. Increasingly more complex models have been used by estimation of distribution algorithms (EDAs), which often result better effectiveness on finding the global optima for hard optimization problems. Supervised and unsupervised learning of Bayesian networks are very effective options, since those models are able to capture interactions of high order among the variables of a problem. Diversity preservation, through niching techniques, has also shown to be very important to allow the identification of the problem structure as much as for keeping several global optima. Recently, clustering was evaluated as an effective niching technique for EDAs, but the performance of simpler low-order EDAs was not shown to be much improved by clustering, except for some simple multimodal problems. This work proposes and evaluates a combination operator guided by a measure from information theory which allows a clustered low-order EDA to effectively solve a comprehensive range of benchmark optimization problems.

Previous work in social network analysis (SNA) has modeled the existence of links from one entity to another, but not the attributes such as language content or topics on those links. We present the Author-Recipient-Topic (ART) model for social network analysis, which learns topic distributions based on the direction-sensitive messages sent between entities. The model builds on Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) and the Author-Topic (AT) model, adding the key attribute that distribution over topics is conditioned distinctly on both the sender and recipient---steering the discovery of topics according to the relationships between people. We give results on both the Enron email corpus and a researcher's email archive, providing evidence not only that clearly relevant topics are discovered, but that the ART model better predicts people's roles and gives lower perplexity on previously unseen messages. We also present the Role-Author-Recipient-Topic (RART) model, an extension to ART that explicitly represents people's roles.

Techniques for data-mining, latent semantic analysis, contextual search of databases, etc. have long ago been developed by computer scientists working on information retrieval (IR). Experimental scientists, from all disciplines, having to analyse large collections of raw experimental data (astronomical, physical, biological, etc.) have developed powerful methods for their statistical analysis and for clustering, categorising, and classifying objects. Finally, physicists have developed a theory of quantum measurement, unifying the logical, algebraic, and probabilistic aspects of queries into a single formalism. The purpose of this paper is twofold: first to show that when formulated at an abstract level, problems from IR, from statistical data analysis, and from physical measurement theories are very similar and hence can profitably be cross-fertilised, and, secondly, to propose a novel method of fuzzy hierarchical clustering, termed \textit{semantic distillation} -- strongly inspired from the theory of quantum measurement --, we developed to analyse raw data coming from various types of experiments on DNA arrays. We illustrate the method by analysing DNA arrays experiments and clustering the genes of the array according to their specificity.

Simulated annealing is a popular method for approaching the solution of a global optimization problem. Existing results on its performance apply to discrete combinatorial optimization where the optimization variables can assume only a finite set of possible values. We introduce a new general formulation of simulated annealing which allows one to guarantee finite-time performance in the optimization of functions of continuous variables. The results hold universally for any optimization problem on a bounded domain and establish a connection between simulated annealing and up-to-date theory of convergence of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods on continuous domains. This work is inspired by the concept of finite-time learning with known accuracy and confidence developed in statistical learning theory.

Data collection often results in records that have missing values or variables. This investigation compares 3 different data imputation models and identifies their merits by using accuracy measures. Autoencoder Neural Networks, Principal components and Support Vector regression are used for prediction and combined with a genetic algorithm to then impute missing variables. The use of PCA improves the overall performance of the autoencoder network while the use of support vector regression shows promising potential for future investigation. Accuracies of up to 97.4 % on imputation of some of the variables were achieved.

The Internet contains a very large number of information sources providing many types of data from weather forecasts to travel deals and financial information. These sources can be accessed via Web-forms, Web Services, RSS feeds and so on. In order to make automated use of these sources, we need to model them semantically, but writing semantic descriptions for Web Services is both tedious and error prone. In this paper we investigate the problem of automatically generating such models. We introduce a framework for learning Datalog definitions of Web sources. In order to learn these definitions, our system actively invokes the sources and compares the data they produce with that of known sources of information. It then performs an inductive logic search through the space of plausible source definitions in order to learn the best possible semantic model for each new source. In this paper we perform an empirical evaluation of the system using real-world Web sources. The evaluation demonstrates the effectiveness of the approach, showing that we can automatically learn complex models for real sources in reasonable time. We also compare our system with a complex schema matching system, showing that our approach can handle the kinds of problems tackled by the latter.

The Bayesian framework is a well-studied and successful framework for inductive reasoning, which includes hypothesis testing and confirmation, parameter estimation, sequence prediction, classification, and regression. But standard statistical guidelines for choosing the model class and prior are not always available or fail, in particular in complex situations. Solomonoff completed the Bayesian framework by providing a rigorous, unique, formal, and universal choice for the model class and the prior. We discuss in breadth how and in which sense universal (non-i.i.d.) sequence prediction solves various (philosophical) problems of traditional Bayesian sequence prediction. We show that Solomonoff's model possesses many desirable properties: Strong total and weak instantaneous bounds, and in contrast to most classical continuous prior densities has no zero p(oste)rior problem, i.e. can confirm universal hypotheses, is reparametrization and regrouping invariant, and avoids the old-evidence and updating problem. It even performs well (actually better) in non-computable environments.

When Kurt Goedel layed the foundations of theoretical computer science in 1931, he also introduced essential concepts of the theory of Artificial Intelligence (AI). Although much of subsequent AI research has focused on heuristics, which still play a major role in many practical AI applications, in the new millennium AI theory has finally become a full-fledged formal science, with important optimality results for embodied agents living in unknown environments, obtained through a combination of theory a la Goedel and probability theory. Here we look back at important milestones of AI history, mention essential recent results, and speculate about what we may expect from the next 25 years, emphasizing the significance of the ongoing dramatic hardware speedups, and discussing Goedel-inspired, self-referential, self-improving universal problem solvers.