Web servers on the Internet need to maintain high reliability, but the cause of intermittent failures of web transactions is non-obvious. We use Bayesian inference to diagnose problems with web services. This diagnosis problem is far larger than any previously attempted: it requires inference of 10^4 possible faults from 10^5 observations. Further, such inference must be performed in less than a second. Inference can be done at this speed by combining a variational approximation, a mean-field approximation, and the use of stochastic gradient descent to optimize a variational cost function. We use this fast inference to diagnose a time series of anomalous HTTP requests taken from a real web service. The inference is fast enough to analyze network logs with billions of entries in a matter of hours.

We propose a method for reconstruction of human brain states directly from functional neuroimaging data. The method extends the traditional multivariate regression analysis of discretized fMRI data to the domain of stochastic functional measurements, facilitating evaluation of brain responses to naturalistic stimuli and boosting the power of functional imaging. The method searches for sets of voxel timecourses that optimize a multivariate functional linear model in terms of Rsquare-statistic. Population based incremental learning is used to search for spatially distributed voxel clusters, taking into account the variation in Haemodynamic lag across brain areas and among subjects by voxel-wise non-linear registration of stimuli to fMRI data. The method captures spatially distributed brain responses to naturalistic stimuli without attempting to localize function. Application of the method for prediction of naturalistic stimuli from new and unknown fMRI data shows that the approach is capable of identifying distributed clusters of brain locations that are highly predictive of a specific stimuli.

Active learning sequentially selects unlabeled instances to label with the goal of reducing the effort needed to learn a good classifier. Most previous studies in active learning have focused on selecting one unlabeled instance at one time while retraining in each iteration. However, single instance selection systems are unable to exploit a parallelized labeler when one is available. Recently a few batch mode active learning approaches have been proposed that select a set of most informative unlabeled instances in each iteration, guided by some heuristic scores. In this paper, we propose a discriminative batch mode active learning approach that formulates the instance selection task as a continuous optimization problem over auxiliary instance selection variables. The optimization is formuated to maximize the discriminative classification performance of the target classifier, while also taking the unlabeled data into account. Although the objective is not convex, we can manipulate a quasi-Newton method to obtain a good local solution. Our empirical studies on UCI datasets show that the proposed active learning is more effective than current state-of-the art batch mode active learning algorithms.

Fair discriminative pedestrian finders are now available. In fact, these pedestrian finders make most errors on pedestrians in configurations that are uncommon in the training data, for example, mounting a bicycle. This is undesirable. However, the human configuration can itself be estimated discriminatively using structure learning. We demonstrate a pedestrian finder which first finds the most likely human pose in the window using a discriminative procedure trained with structure learning on a small dataset. We then present features (local histogram of oriented gradient and local PCA of gradient) based on that configuration to an SVM classifier. We show, using the INRIA Person dataset, that estimates of configuration significantly improve the accuracy of a discriminative pedestrian finder.

This contribution develops a theoretical framework that takes into account the effect of approximate optimization on learning algorithms. The analysis shows distinct tradeoffs for the case of small-scale and large-scale learning problems. Small-scale learning problems are subject to the usual approximation--estimation tradeoff. Large-scale learning problems are subject to a qualitatively different tradeoff involving the computational complexity of the underlying optimization algorithms in non-trivial ways.

Clustering is often formulated as a discrete optimization problem. The objective is to find, among all partitions of the data set, the best one according to some quality measure. However, in the statistical setting where we assume that the finite data set has been sampled from some underlying space, the goal is not to find the best partition of the given sample, but to approximate the true partition of the underlying space.We argue that the discrete optimization approach usually does not achieve this goal. As an alternative, we suggest the paradigm of "nearest neighbor clustering". Instead of selecting the best out of all partitions of the sample, it only considers partitions in some restricted function class. Using tools from statistical learning theory we prove that nearest neighbor clustering is statistically consistent. Moreover,its worst case complexity is polynomial by construction, and it can be implemented with small average case complexity using branch and bound.

We provide a provably efficient algorithm for learning Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with continuous state and action spaces in the online setting. Specifically, we take a model-based approach and show that a special type of online linear regression allows us to learn MDPs with (possibly kernalized) linearly parameterized dynamics. This result builds on Kearns and Singh's work that provides a provably efficient algorithm for finite state MDPs. Our approach is not restricted to the linear setting, and is applicable to other classes of continuous MDPs.

Markov jump processes play an important role in a large number of application domains. However, realistic systems are analytically intractable and they have traditionally been analysed using simulation based techniques, which do not provide a framework for statistical inference. We propose a mean field approximation to perform posterior inference and parameter estimation. The approximation allows a practical solution to the inference problem, {while still retaining a good degree of accuracy.} We illustrate our approach on two biologically motivated systems.

Assessing similarity between features is a key step in object recognition and scene categorization tasks. We argue that knowledge on the distribution of distances generated by similarity functions is crucial in deciding whether features are similar or not. Intuitively one would expect that similarities between features could arise from any distribution. In this paper, we will derive the contrary, and report the theoretical result that $L_p$-norms --a class of commonly applied distance metrics-- from one feature vector to other vectors are Weibull-distributed if the feature values are correlated and non-identically distributed. Besides these assumptions being realistic for images, we experimentally show them to hold for various popular feature extraction algorithms, for a diverse range of images. This fundamental insight opens new directions in the assessment of feature similarity, with projected improvements in object and scene recognition algorithms. Erratum: The authors of paper have declared that they have become convinced that the reasoning in the reference is too simple as a proof of their claims. As a consequence, they withdraw their theorems.

Maximum entropy analysis of binary variables provides an elegant way for studying therole of pairwise correlations in neural populations. Unfortunately, these approaches suffer from their poor scalability to high dimensions. In sensory coding, however,high-dimensional data is ubiquitous. Here, we introduce a new approach using a near-maximum entropy model, that makes this type of analysis feasiblefor very high-dimensional data--the model parameters can be derived in closed form and sampling is easy. Therefore, our NearMaxEnt approach can serve as a tool for testing predictions from a pairwise maximum entropy model not only for low-dimensional marginals, but also for high dimensional measurements of more than thousand units. We demonstrate its usefulness by studying natural images with dichotomized pixel intensities. Our results indicate that the statistics of such higher-dimensional measurements exhibit additional structure that are not predicted by pairwise correlations, despite the fact that pairwise correlations explain thelower-dimensional marginal statistics surprisingly well up to the limit of dimensionality where estimation of the full joint distribution is feasible.