When training and test samples follow different input distributions (i.e., the situation called \emph{covariate shift}), the maximum likelihood estimator is known to lose its consistency. For regaining consistency, the log-likelihood terms need to be weighted according to the \emph{importance} (i.e., the ratio of test and training input densities). Thus, accurately estimating the importance is one of the key tasks in covariate shift adaptation. A naive approach is to first estimate training and test input densities and then estimate the importance by the ratio of the density estimates. However, since density estimation is a hard problem, this approach tends to perform poorly especially in high dimensional cases. In this paper, we propose a direct importance estimation method that does not require the input density estimates. Our method is equipped with a natural model selection procedure so tuning parameters such as the kernel width can be objectively optimized. This is an advantage over a recently developed method of direct importance estimation. Simulations illustrate the usefulness of our approach.

In problems where input features have varying amounts of noise, using distinct regularization hyperparameters for different features provides an effective means of managing model complexity. While regularizers for neural networks and support vectormachines often rely on multiple hyperparameters, regularizers for structured prediction models (used in tasks such as sequence labeling or parsing) typicallyrely only on a single shared hyperparameter for all features. In this paper, we consider the problem of choosing regularization hyperparameters for log-linear models, a class of structured prediction probabilistic models which includes conditionalrandom fields (CRFs). Using an implicit differentiation trick, we derive an efficient gradient-based method for learning Gaussian regularization priors with multiple hyperparameters. In both simulations and the real-world task of computational RNA secondary structure prediction, we find that multiple hyperparameter learningcan provide a significant boost in accuracy compared to using only a single regularization hyperparameter.

Neuronal activity, particularly in cerebral cortex, is highly variable.

Semi-supervised methods use unlabeled data in addition to labeled data to construct predictors.While existing semi-supervised methods have shown some promising empirical performance, their development has been based largely based on heuristics. In this paper we study semi-supervised learning from the viewpoint of minimax theory. Our first result shows that some common methods based on regularization using graph Laplacians do not lead to faster minimax rates of convergence. Thus,the estimators that use the unlabeled data do not have smaller risk than the estimators that use only labeled data. We then develop several new approaches that provably lead to improved performance. The statistical tools of minimax analysis are thus used to offer some new perspective on the problem of semi-supervised learning.

In this paper we investigate multi-task learning in the context of Gaussian Processes (GP).We propose a model that learns a shared covariance function on input-dependent features and a "free-form" covariance matrix over tasks. This allows forgood flexibility when modelling inter-task dependencies while avoiding the need for large amounts of data for training. We show that under the assumption ofnoise-free observations and a block design, predictions for a given task only depend on its target values and therefore a cancellation of inter-task transfer occurs.We evaluate the benefits of our model on two practical applications: a compiler performance prediction problem and an exam score prediction task. Additionally, we make use of GP approximations and properties of our model in order to provide scalability to large data sets.

This paper investigates the application of randomized algorithms for large scale SVM learning. The key contribution of the paper is to show that, by using ideas random projections, the minimal number of support vectors required to solve almost separableclassification problems, such that the solution obtained is near optimal with a very high probability, is given by O(log n); if on removal of properly chosenO(log n) points the data becomes linearly separable then it is called almost separable. The second contribution is a sampling based algorithm, motivated fromrandomized algorithms, which solves a SVM problem by considering subsets of the dataset which are greater in size than the number of support vectors for the problem. These two ideas are combined to obtain an algorithm for SVM classification problems which performs the learning by considering only O(log n) points at a time. Experiments done on synthetic and real life datasets show that the algorithm does scale up state of the art SVM solvers in terms of memory required and execution time without loss in accuracy. It is to be noted that the algorithm presented here nicely complements existing large scale SVM learning approaches as it can be used to scale up any SVM solver.

Two algorithmic implementations of the method are formalized.

We present a globally convergent method for regularized risk minimization problems. Ourmethod applies to Support Vector estimation, regression, Gaussian Processes, and any other regularized risk minimization setting which leads to a convex optimization problem. SVMPerf can be shown to be a special case of our approach. In addition to the unified framework we present tight convergence bounds, which show that our algorithm converges in O(1/ɛ) steps to ɛ precision for general convex problems and in O(log(1/ɛ)) steps for continuously differentiable problems.We demonstrate in experiments the performance of our approach.

We introduce supervised latent Dirichlet allocation (sLDA), a statistical model of labelled documents. The model accommodates a variety of response types. We derive a maximum-likelihood procedure for parameter estimation, which relies on variational approximations to handle intractable posterior expectations. Prediction problems motivate this research: we use the fitted model to predict response values for new documents. We test sLDA on two real-world problems: movie ratings predicted from reviews, and web page popularity predicted from text descriptions. We illustrate the benefits of sLDA versus modern regularized regression, as well as versus an unsupervised LDA analysis followed by a separate regression.

Previous Work Gaussian processes for time-series forecasting have been considered before.