Statistical Learning
Can Artificial Intelligence solve the blockchain oracle problem? Unpacking the Challenges and Possibilities
The blockchain oracle problem, which refers to the challenge of injecting reliable external data into decentralized systems, remains a fundamental limitation to the development of trustless applications. While recent years have seen a proliferation of architectural, cryptographic, and economic strategies to mitigate this issue, no one has yet fully resolved the fundamental question of how a blockchain can gain knowledge about the off-chain world. In this position paper, we critically assess the role artificial intelligence (AI) can play in tackling the oracle problem. Drawing from both academic literature and practitioner implementations, we examine how AI techniques such as anomaly detection, language-based fact extraction, dynamic reputation modeling, and adversarial resistance can enhance oracle systems. We observe that while AI introduces powerful tools for improving data quality, source selection, and system resilience, it cannot eliminate the reliance on unverifiable off-chain inputs. Therefore, this study supports the idea that AI should be understood as a complementary layer of inference and filtering within a broader oracle design, not a substitute for trust assumptions.
AMPED: Adaptive Multi-objective Projection for balancing Exploration and skill Diversification
Cho, Geonwoo, Lee, Jaemoon, Im, Jaegyun, Lee, Subi, Lee, Jihwan, Kim, Sundong
Skill-based reinforcement learning (SBRL) enables rapid adaptation in environments with sparse rewards by pretraining a skill-conditioned policy. Effective skill learning requires jointly maximizing both exploration and skill diversity. However, existing methods often face challenges in simultaneously optimizing for these two conflicting objectives. In this work, we propose a new method, Adaptive Multi-objective Projection for balancing Exploration and skill Diversification (AMPED), which explicitly addresses both: during pre-training, a gradient-surgery projection balances the exploration and diversity gradients, and during fine-tuning, a skill selector exploits the learned diversity by choosing skills suited to downstream tasks. Our approach achieves performance that surpasses SBRL baselines across various benchmarks. Through an extensive ablation study, we identify the role of each component and demonstrate that each element in AMPED is contributing to performance. We further provide theoretical and empirical evidence that, with a greedy skill selector, greater skill diversity reduces fine-tuning sample complexity. These results highlight the importance of explicitly harmonizing exploration and diversity and demonstrate the effectiveness of AMPED in enabling robust and generalizable skill learning. Project Page: https://geonwoo.me/amped/
SafeGenes: Evaluating the Adversarial Robustness of Genomic Foundation Models
Zhan, Huixin, Barbour, Clovis, Moore, Jason H.
Genomic Foundation Models (GFMs), such as Evolutionary Scale Modeling (ESM), have demonstrated significant success in variant effect prediction. However, their adversarial robustness remains largely unexplored. To address this gap, we propose SafeGenes: a framework for Secure analysis of genomic foundation models, leveraging adversarial attacks to evaluate robustness against both engineered near-identical adversarial Genes and embedding-space manipulations. In this study, we assess the adversarial vulnerabilities of GFMs using two approaches: the Fast Gradient Sign Method (FGSM) and a soft prompt attack. FGSM introduces minimal perturbations to input sequences, while the soft prompt attack optimizes continuous embeddings to manipulate model predictions without modifying the input tokens. By combining these techniques, SafeGenes provides a comprehensive assessment of GFM susceptibility to adversarial manipulation. Targeted soft prompt attacks induced severe degradation in MLM-based shallow architectures such as ProteinBERT, while still producing substantial failure modes even in high-capacity foundation models such as ESM1b and ESM1v. These findings expose critical vulnerabilities in current foundation models, opening new research directions toward improving their security and robustness in high-stakes genomic applications such as variant effect prediction.
xEEGNet: Towards Explainable AI in EEG Dementia Classification
Zanola, Andrea, Tshimanga, Louis Fabrice, Del Pup, Federico, Baiesi, Marco, Atzori, Manfredo
This work presents xEEGNet, a novel, compact, and explainable neural network for EEG data analysis. It is fully interpretable and reduces overfitting through major parameter reduction. As an applicative use case, we focused on classifying common dementia conditions, Alzheimer's and frontotemporal dementia, versus controls. xEEGNet is broadly applicable to other neurological conditions involving spectral alterations. We initially used ShallowNet, a simple and popular model from the EEGNet-family. Its structure was analyzed and gradually modified to move from a "black box" to a more transparent model, without compromising performance. The learned kernels and weights were examined from a clinical standpoint to assess medical relevance. Model variants, including ShallowNet and the final xEEGNet, were evaluated using robust Nested-Leave-N-Subjects-Out cross-validation for unbiased performance estimates. Variability across data splits was explained using embedded EEG representations, grouped by class and set, with pairwise separability to quantify group distinction. Overfitting was assessed through training-validation loss correlation and training speed. xEEGNet uses only 168 parameters, 200 times fewer than ShallowNet, yet retains interpretability, resists overfitting, achieves comparable median performance (-1.5%), and reduces variability across splits. This variability is explained by embedded EEG representations: higher accuracy correlates with greater separation between test set controls and Alzheimer's cases, without significant influence from training data. xEEGNet's ability to filter specific EEG bands, learn band-specific topographies, and use relevant spectral features demonstrates its interpretability. While large deep learning models are often prioritized for performance, this study shows smaller architectures like xEEGNet can be equally effective in EEG pathology classification.
Fast Gaussian Process Approximations for Autocorrelated Data
Chokhachian, Ahmadreza, Katzfuss, Matthias, Ding, Yu
This paper is concerned with the problem of how to speed up computation for Gaussian process models trained on autocorrelated data. The Gaussian process model is a powerful tool commonly used in nonlinear regression applications. Standard regression modeling assumes random samples and an independently, identically distributed noise. Various fast approximations that speed up Gaussian process regression work under this standard setting. But for autocorrelated data, failing to account for autocorrelation leads to a phenomenon known as temporal overfitting that deteriorates model performance on new test instances. To handle autocorrelated data, existing fast Gaussian process approximations have to be modified; one such approach is to segment the originally correlated data points into blocks in which the blocked data are de-correlated. This work explains how to make some of the existing Gaussian process approximations work with blocked data. Numerical experiments across diverse application datasets demonstrate that the proposed approaches can remarkably accelerate computation for Gaussian process regression on autocorrelated data without compromising model prediction performance.
Hypothesis Testing for Generalized Thurstone Models
In this work, we develop a hypothesis testing framework to determine whether pairwise comparison data is generated by an underlying \emph{generalized Thurstone model} $\mathcal{T}_F$ for a given choice function $F$. While prior work has predominantly focused on parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification for such models, we address the fundamental problem of minimax hypothesis testing for $\mathcal{T}_F$ models. We formulate this testing problem by introducing a notion of separation distance between general pairwise comparison models and the class of $\mathcal{T}_F$ models. We then derive upper and lower bounds on the critical threshold for testing that depend on the topology of the observation graph. For the special case of complete observation graphs, this threshold scales as $ฮ((nk)^{-1/2})$, where $n$ is the number of agents and $k$ is the number of comparisons per pair. Furthermore, we propose a hypothesis test based on our separation distance, construct confidence intervals, establish time-uniform bounds on the probabilities of type I and II errors using reverse martingale techniques, and derive minimax lower bounds using information-theoretic methods. Finally, we validate our results through experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets.
Laplace Approximation For Tensor Train Kernel Machines In System Identification
Saiapin, Albert, Batselier, Kim
To address the scalability limitations of Gaussian process (GP) regression, several approximation techniques have been proposed. One such method is based on tensor networks, which utilizes an exponential number of basis functions without incurring exponential computational cost. However, extending this model to a fully probabilistic formulation introduces several design challenges. In particular, for tensor train (TT) models, it is unclear which TT-core should be treated in a Bayesian manner. We introduce a Bayesian tensor train kernel machine that applies Laplace approximation to estimate the posterior distribution over a selected TT-core and employs variational inference (VI) for precision hyperparameters. Experiments show that core selection is largely independent of TT-ranks and feature structure, and that VI replaces cross-validation while offering up to 65x faster training. The method's effectiveness is demonstrated on an inverse dynamics problem.
Unlocking the Power of Boltzmann Machines by Parallelizable Sampler and Efficient Temperature Estimation
Boltzmann machines (BMs) are powerful energy-based generative models, but their heavy training cost has largely confined practical use to Restricted BMs (RBMs) trained with an efficient learning method called contrastive divergence. More accurate learning typically requires Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Boltzmann sampling, but it is time-consuming due to the difficulty of parallelization for more expressive models. To address this limitation, we first propose a new Boltzmann sampler inspired by a quantum-inspired combinatorial optimization called simulated bifurcation (SB). This SB-inspired approach, which we name Langevin SB (LSB), enables parallelized sampling while maintaining accuracy comparable to MCMC. Furthermore, this is applicable not only to RBMs but also to BMs with general couplings. However, LSB cannot control the inverse temperature of the output Boltzmann distribution, which hinders learning and degrades performance. To overcome this limitation, we also developed an efficient method for estimating the inverse temperature during the learning process, which we call conditional expectation matching (CEM). By combining LSB and CEM, we establish an efficient learning framework for BMs with greater expressive power than RBMs. We refer to this framework as sampler-adaptive learning (SAL). SAL opens new avenues for energy-based generative modeling beyond RBMs.
On Statistical Inference for High-Dimensional Binary Time Series
The analysis of non-real-valued data, such as binary time series, has attracted great interest in recent years. This manuscript proposes a post-selection estimator for estimating the coefficient matrices of a high-dimensional generalized binary vector autoregressive process and establishes a Gaussian approximation theorem for the proposed estimator. Furthermore, it introduces a second-order wild bootstrap algorithm to enable statistical inference on the coefficient matrices. Numerical studies and empirical applications demonstrate the good finite-sample performance of the proposed method.
Sparse Multiple Kernel Learning: Alternating Best Response and Semidefinite Relaxations
Bertsimas, Dimitris, Iglesias, Caio de Prospero, Johnson, Nicholas A. G.
We study Sparse Multiple Kernel Learning (SMKL), which is the problem of selecting a sparse convex combination of prespecified kernels for support vector binary classification. Unlike prevailing l1 regularized approaches that approximate a sparsifying penalty, we formulate the problem by imposing an explicit cardinality constraint on the kernel weights and add an l2 penalty for robustness. We solve the resulting non-convex minimax problem via an alternating best response algorithm with two subproblems: the alpha subproblem is a standard kernel SVM dual solved via LIBSVM, while the beta subproblem admits an efficient solution via the Greedy Selector and Simplex Projector algorithm. We reformulate SMKL as a mixed integer semidefinite optimization problem and derive a hierarchy of semidefinite convex relaxations which can be used to certify near-optimality of the solutions returned by our best response algorithm and also to warm start it. On ten UCI benchmarks, our method with random initialization outperforms state-of-the-art MKL approaches in out-of-sample prediction accuracy on average by 3.34 percentage points (relative to the best performing benchmark) while selecting a small number of candidate kernels in comparable runtime. With warm starting, our method outperforms the best performing benchmark's out-of-sample prediction accuracy on average by 4.05 percentage points. Our convex relaxations provide a certificate that in several cases, the solution returned by our best response algorithm is the globally optimal solution.