The expectation maximization (EM) algorithm is a widely used maximum likelihood estimation procedure for statistical models when the values of some of the variables in the model are not observed. Very often, however, our aim is primarily to find a model that assigns values to the latent variables that have intended meaning for our data and maximizing expected likelihood only sometimes accomplishes this. Unfortunately, it is typically difficult to add even simple a-priori information about latent variables in graphical models without making the models overly complex or intractable. In this paper, we present an efficient, principled way to inject rich constraints on the posteriors of latent variables into the EM algorithm. Our method can be used to learn tractable graphical models that satisfy additional, otherwise intractable constraints. Focusing on clustering and the alignment problem for statistical machine translation, we show that simple, intuitive posterior constraints can greatly improve the performance over standard baselines and be competitive with more complex, intractable models.

In this paper we investigate multi-task learning in the context of Gaussian Processes (GP). We propose a model that learns a shared covariance function on input-dependent features and a "free-form" covariance matrix over tasks. This allows for good flexibility when modelling inter-task dependencies while avoiding the need for large amounts of data for training. We show that under the assumption of noise-free observations and a block design, predictions for a given task only depend on its target values and therefore a cancellation of inter-task transfer occurs. We evaluate the benefits of our model on two practical applications: a compiler performance prediction problem and an exam score prediction task. Additionally, we make use of GP approximations and properties of our model in order to provide scalability to large data sets.

Maximum variance unfolding (MVU) is an effective heuristic for dimensionality reduction. It produces a low-dimensional representation of the data by maximizing the variance of their embeddings while preserving the local distances of the original data. We show that MVU also optimizes a statistical dependence measure which aims to retain the identity of individual observations under the distancepreserving constraints. This general view allows us to design "colored" variants of MVU, which produce low-dimensional representations for a given task, e.g.

Semi-supervised learning, i.e. learning from both labeled and unlabeled data has received significant attention in the machine learning literature in recent years. Still our understanding of the theoretical foundations of the usefulness of unlabeled data remains somewhat limited. The simplest and the best understood situation is when the data is described by an identifiable mixture model, and where each class comes from a pure component. This natural setup and its implications ware analyzed in [11, 5]. One important result was that in certain regimes, labeled data becomes exponentially more valuable than unlabeled data. However, in most realistic situations, one would not expect that the data comes from a parametric mixture distribution with identifiable components.

Estimation of three-dimensional articulated human pose and motion from images is a central problem in computer vision. Much of the previous work has been limited by the use of crude generative models of humans represented as articulated collections of simple parts such as cylinders. Automatic initialization of such models has proved difficult and most approaches assume that the size and shape of the body parts are known a priori. In this paper we propose a method for automatically recovering a detailed parametric model of nonrigid body shape and pose from monocular imagery. Specifically, we represent the body using a param-eterized triangulated mesh model that is learned from a database of human range scans. We demonstrate a discriminative method to directly recover the model parameters from monocular images using a conditional mixture of kernel regressors. This predicted pose and shape are used to initialize a generative model for more detailed pose and shape estimation. The resulting approach allows fully automatic pose and shape recovery from monocular and multi-camera imagery. Experimental results show that our method is capable of robustly recovering articulated pose, shape and biometric measurements (e.g.

Many existing approaches to collaborative filtering can neither handle very large datasets nor easily deal with users who have very few ratings. In this paper we present the Probabilistic Matrix Factorization (PMF) model which scales linearly with the number of observations and, more importantly, performs well on the large, sparse, and very imbalanced Netflix dataset. We further extend the PMF model to include an adaptive prior on the model parameters and show how the model capacity can be controlled automatically. Finally, we introduce a constrained version of the PMF model that is based on the assumption that users who have rated similar sets of movies are likely to have similar preferences. The resulting model is able to generalize considerably better for users with very few ratings. When the predictions of multiple PMF models are linearly combined with the predictions of Restricted Boltzmann Machines models, we achieve an error rate of 0.8861, that is nearly 7% better than the score of Netflix's own system.

We present a simple new criterion for classification, based on principles from lossy data compression. The criterion assigns a test sample to the class that uses the minimum number of additional bits to code the test sample, subject to an allowable distortion. We prove asymptotic optimality of this criterion for Gaussian data and analyze its relationships to classical classifiers. Theoretical results provide new insights into relationships among popular classifiers such as MAP and RDA, as well as unsupervised clustering methods based on lossy compression [13]. Minimizing the lossy coding length induces a regularization effect which stabilizes the (implicit) density estimate in a small-sample setting. Compression also provides a uniform means of handling classes of varying dimension. This simple classification criterion and its kernel and local versions perform competitively against existing classifiers on both synthetic examples and real imagery data such as handwritten digits and human faces, without requiring domain-specific information.

Neural spike trains present challenges to analytical efforts due to their noisy, spiking nature. Many studies of neuroscientific and neural prosthetic importance rely on a smoothed, denoised estimate of the spike train's underlying firing rate. Current techniques to find time-varying firing rates require ad hoc choices of parameters, offer no confidence intervals on their estimates, and can obscure potentially important single trial variability. We present a new method, based on a Gaussian Process prior, for inferring probabilistically optimal estimates of firing rate functions underlying single or multiple neural spike trains. We test the performance of the method on simulated data and experimentally gathered neural spike trains, and we demonstrate improvements over conventional estimators.

Clustering is often formulated as the maximum likelihood estimation of a mixture model that explains the data. The EM algorithm widely used to solve the resulting optimization problem is inherently a gradient-descent method and is sensitive to initialization. The resulting solution is a local optimum in the neighborhood of the initial guess. This sensitivity to initialization presents a significant challenge in clustering large data sets into many clusters. In this paper, we present a different approach to approximate mixture fitting for clustering. We introduce an exemplar-based likelihood function that approximates the exact likelihood. This formulation leads to a convex minimization problem and an efficient algorithm with guaranteed convergence to the globally optimal solution. The resulting clustering can be thought of as a probabilistic mapping of the data points to the set of exemplars that minimizes the average distance and the information-theoretic cost of mapping.

We introduce a new Bayesian model for hierarchical clustering based on a prior over trees called Kingman's coalescent. We develop novel greedy and sequential Monte Carlo inferences which operate in a bottom-up agglomerative fashion. We show experimentally the superiority of our algorithms over the state-of-the-art, and demonstrate our approach in document clustering and phylolinguistics.