Markov jump processes play an important role in a large number of application domains. However, realistic systems are analytically intractable and they have traditionally been analysed using simulation based techniques, which do not provide a framework for statistical inference. We propose a mean field approximation to perform posterior inference and parameter estimation. The approximation allows a practical solution to the inference problem, {while still retaining a good degree of accuracy.} We illustrate our approach on two biologically motivated systems.

We propose a Gaussian process (GP) framework for robust inference in which a GP prior on the mixing weights of a two-component noise model augments the standard process over latent function values. This approach is a generalization of the mixture likelihood used in traditional robust GP regression, and a specialization of the GP mixture models suggested by Tresp (2000) and Rasmussen and Ghahramani (2002). The value of this restriction is in its tractable expectation propagation updates, which allow for faster inference and model selection, and better convergence than the standard mixture. An additional benefit over the latter method lies in our ability to incorporate knowledge of the noise domain to influence predictions, and to recover with the predictive distribution information about the outlier distribution via the gating process. The model has asymptotic complexity equal to that of conventional robust methods, but yields more confident predictions on benchmark problems than classical heavy-tailed models and exhibits improved stability for data with clustered corruptions, for which they fail altogether. We show further how our approach can be used without adjustment for more smoothly heteroscedastic data, and suggest how it could be extended to more general noise models. We also address similarities with the work of Goldberg et al. (1998), and the more recent contributions of Tresp, and Rasmussen and Ghahramani.

We construct a biologically motivated stochastic differential model of the neural and hemodynamic activity underlying the observed Blood Oxygen Level Dependent (BOLD) signal in Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI). The model poses a difficult parameter estimation problem, both theoretically due to the nonlinearity and divergence of the differential system, and computationally due to its time and space complexity. We adapt a particle filter and smoother to the task, and discuss some of the practical approaches used to tackle the difficulties, including use of sparse matrices and parallelisation. Results demonstrate the tractability of the approach in its application to an effective connectivity study.

We present an efficient generalization of the sparse pseudo-input Gaussian process (SPGP)model developed by Snelson and Ghahramani [1], applying it to binary classification problems.

The notion of algorithmic stability has been used effectively in the past to derive tight generalization bounds. A key advantage of these bounds is that they are de- signed for specific learning algorithms, exploiting their particular properties. But, as in much of learning theory, existing stability analyses and bounds apply only in the scenario where the samples are independently and identically distributed (i.i.d.). In many machine learning applications, however, this assumption does not hold. The observations received by the learning algorithm often have some inherent temporal dependence, which is clear in system diagnosis or time series prediction problems. This paper studies the scenario where the observations are drawn from a station- ary beta-mixing sequence, which implies a dependence between observations that weaken over time. It proves novel stability-based generalization bounds that hold even with this more general setting. These bounds strictly generalize the bounds given in the i.i.d. case. We also illustrate their application in the case of several general classes of learning algorithms, including Support Vector Regression and Kernel Ridge Regression.

Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) provides an unprecedented window into the complex functioning of the human brain, typically detailing the activity of thousands of voxels during hundreds of sequential time points. Unfortunately, the interpretation of fMRI is complicated due both to the relatively unknown connection between the hemodynamic response and neural activity and the unknown spatiotemporal characteristics of the cognitive patterns themselves. Here, we use data from the Experience Based Cognition competition to compare global and local methods of prediction applying both linear and nonlinear techniques of dimensionality reduction. We build global low dimensional representations of an fMRI dataset, using linear and nonlinear methods. We learn a set of time series that are implicit functions of the fMRI data, and predict the values of these times series in the future from the knowledge of the fMRI data only. We find effective, low-dimensional models based on the principal components of cognitive activity in classically-defined anatomical regions, the Brodmann Areas. Furthermore for some of the stimuli, the top predictive regions were stable across subjects and episodes, including WernickeÕs area for verbal instructions, visual cortex for facial and body features, and visual-temporal regions (Brodmann Area 7) for velocity. These interpretations and the relative simplicity of our approach provide a transparent and conceptual basis upon which to build more sophisticated techniques for fMRI decoding. To our knowledge, this is the first time that classical areas have been used in fMRI for an effective prediction of complex natural experience.

Clustering is often formulated as a discrete optimization problem. The objective is to find, among all partitions of the data set, the best one according to some quality measure. However, in the statistical setting where we assume that the finite data set has been sampled from some underlying space, the goal is not to find the best partition of the given sample, but to approximate the true partition of the underlying space.We argue that the discrete optimization approach usually does not achieve this goal. As an alternative, we suggest the paradigm of "nearest neighbor clustering". Instead of selecting the best out of all partitions of the sample, it only considers partitions in some restricted function class. Using tools from statistical learning theory we prove that nearest neighbor clustering is statistically consistent. Moreover,its worst case complexity is polynomial by construction, and it can be implemented with small average case complexity using branch and bound.

In this paper, we propose a method for support vector machine classification using indefinite kernels. Instead of directly minimizing or stabilizing a nonconvex loss function, our method simultaneously finds the support vectors and a proxy kernel matrix used in computing the loss. This can be interpreted as a robust classification problem where the indefinite kernel matrix is treated as a noisy observation of the true positive semidefinite kernel. Our formulation keeps the problem convex and relatively large problems can be solved efficiently using the analytic center cutting plane method. We compare the performance of our technique with other methods on several data sets.

A semi-supervised multitask learning (MTL) framework is presented, in which M parameterized semi-supervised classifiers, each associated with one of M partially labeleddata manifolds, are learned jointly under the constraint of a softsharing priorimposed over the parameters of the classifiers. The unlabeled data are utilized by basing classifier learning on neighborhoods, induced by a Markov random walk over a graph representation of each manifold. Experimental results on real data sets demonstrate that semi-supervised MTL yields significant improvements ingeneralization performance over either semi-supervised single-task learning (STL) or supervised MTL.

The learning of probabilistic models with many hidden variables and nondecomposable dependenciesis an important and challenging problem. In contrast to traditional approaches based on approximate inference in a single intractable model, our approach is to train a set of tractable submodels by encouraging them to agree on the hidden variables. This allows us to capture non-decomposable aspects of the data while still maintaining tractability. We propose an objective function for our approach, derive EMstyle algorithms for parameter estimation, and demonstrate their effectiveness on three challenging real-world learning tasks.