We propose a novel adaptive Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) framework for time series forecasting that enhances expert specialization by incorporating expert-specific loss information directly into the training process. Notably, the overall objective comprises the base forecasting loss and expert-specific losses, allowing expert-level prediction errors to jointly shape training alongside the global forecasting loss. This framework is further combined with a partial online learning strategy, enabling incremental updates of both the gating mechanism and expert parameters. This approach significantly reduces computational cost by eliminating the need for repeated full model retraining. By integrating expert-level loss awareness with efficient online optimization, the proposed method achieves improved learning efficiency while maintaining strong predictive performance. Empirical results across economic, tourism, and energy datasets with varying frequencies demonstrate that the proposed approach generally outperforms both statistical methods and state-of-the-art neural network models, such as Transformers and WaveNet, in forecasting accuracy and computational efficiency. Furthermore, ablation studies confirm the effectiveness of the expert-specific loss integration strategy, highlighting its contribution to enhancing predictive performance.

Reliable uncertainty quantification is essential for the use of machine learning in physics, where scientific discoveries depend on validated probabilistic statements. We provide a structured overview of uncertainty quantification in ML for physics, introducing a unified taxonomy of uncertainty and clarifying the interpretation of predictive and inference uncertainties across frequentist and Bayesian frameworks. We discuss principled validation tools, including coverage, calibration, bias tests, and proper scoring rules, and illustrate them with simple regression and classification examples.

We derive a Sequential Minimal Optimization (SMO) algorithm for the quadratic dual problem arising from $\varepsilon$-SVR~\cite{Vapnik1995, Drucker1997, Smola2004} modified to minimize the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)~\cite{Makridakis1993, Hyndman2006} directly in the loss function~\cite{benavides2025support}. This formulation is part of a broader family of SVR models with percentage-error losses that also includes least-squares variants~\cite{Suykens2002} and symmetric-kernel extensions~\cite{Espinoza2005}, whose unified structure is studied in~\cite{benavides2026unified}. The key structural difference from standard $\varepsilon$-SVR is that the box constraints become \emph{sample-dependent}: $α_k, α_k^* \in [0,\, 100C/y_k]$. We show that this modification affects only (i) the feasibility sets $\Iup$ and $\Idown$ in the working-set selection and (ii) the clipping bounds in the analytic two-variable update, while leaving the curvature formula and gradient update structurally identical to the standard SMO~\cite{Platt1998, Platt1999, Fan2005}. A shrinking heuristic adapted to the sample-dependent bounds is derived and shown to introduce an asymmetry between $α$- and $α^*$-variables controlled by the gap $2y_k\varepsilon/100$. The same solver applies to the symmetric-kernel variant (m2) by replacing $Ω$ with $Ω_s = \tfrac{1}{2}(Ω+ aΩ^*)$~\cite{Espinoza2005}. Numerical validation against an interior-point QP reference solver confirms solution agreement to within solver termination tolerance across ten synthetic configurations spanning both kernel variants and symmetry types. An implementation is available in the open-source \texttt{psvr} R package~\cite{BenavidesHerrera2026Rpsvr}.

Neural networks are trained by minimizing loss functions with gradient-based optimizers. Cohen et al. [2021] observed that full-batch gradient descent operates at the edge of stability (EoS): the largest eigenvalue of the Hessian, called the sharpness, first rises (a phase called progressive sharpening) and then hovers at the stability threshold 2/η where η is the learning rate. Cohen et al. [2022] extended this picture to momentum methods and adaptive gradient methods, showing that each optimizer exhibits its own edge of stability. Rather than hovering at 2/η, the relevant quantity--the preconditioned sharpness--hovers at a hyperparameter-dependent threshold that depends on the optimizer (Table 2). In practice, the dominant optimizer in machine learning is Adam [Kingma and Ba, 2015], which differs from gradient descent in two respects.

We study the spectral properties of sample covariance matrices constructed from pooled sequence representations, where token embeddings are drawn from a fixed two-class Gaussian mixture table and pooled via (fixed) attention weights. Working in the high-dimensional regime $d,V,N\to\infty$ with $d/V\toδ$ and $d/N\toγ$, we derive exact characterizations of the limiting eigenvalue distribution, outlier eigenvalues, and eigenvector alignment with the hidden signal. The bulk spectrum follows a non-Marchenko--Pastur law given by the free multiplicative convolution $κ(MP_δ\boxtimes MP_γ)$, reflecting the finite vocabulary structure. Signal recovery undergoes two successive BBP-type phase transitions characterized by the scalars: $δ,γ,α=w^{\top} R w$ and $κ=\|w\|^2$, where $w$ denotes the attention pooling weights and $R$ the positional correlation matrix. An aftermath of our analysis demonstrates that the optimal attention weights maximizing the signal-to-noise ratio $α/κ$ are given by the (normalized) top eigenvector of $R$, and we show (as a particular case of our analysis) that parameter-free causal self-attention with $τ/d$ score scaling yields deterministic harmonic weights that improve signal recovery over mean pooling whenever early tokens carry more signal. Extensive simulations confirm sharp agreement between theory and finite-dimensional experiments.

The Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) is a cornerstone statistic for nonparametric two-sample testing, but its test power is dictated entirely by the chosen kernel. Because any fixed kernel inherently fails to distinguish certain distributions, the kernel must be dynamically optimized. However, data-driven optimization violates the foundational i.i.d. assumption, forcing a strict trade-off in existing frameworks. Ratio criteria ignore this dependence, inducing overfitting and variance collapse on rich kernel classes. Conversely, aggregation methods bypass the dependence using finite grids, but this strategy cannot scale to continuous search spaces like deep kernels. To break this dichotomy, we establish data-driven kernel selection as a model selection problem. We propose Complexity-Penalized MMD (CP-MMD), a criterion derived by applying the two-sample uniform concentration inequality of preceding works to the post-optimization MMD problem. The resulting penalty bounds the empirical MMD by the complexity of the kernel search space, mathematically absorbing the cost of optimization, so that CP-MMD enables direct, grid-free maximization over continuous parametric classes, including scalar bandwidths, polynomial feature bandwidths, and deep network parameters. By formally accounting for optimization complexity, we prove that CP-MMD maximizes true test power while ensuring unconditional Type-I validity. Consequently, CP-MMD enables grid-free kernel selection across linear, polynomial-feature, and deep regimes, matching or exceeding state-of-the-art test power.

This paper presents a parametric solution to piecewise linear regression through the Adaptive Block Gradient Descent (ABGD) algorithm. The heart of the method is the parametrization of piecewise linear functions as the difference of max-affine (DoMA) functions. A non-asymptotic local convergence analysis for ABGD is provided under sub-Gaussian covariate and noise distributions. To initialize ABGD, we adapt a prior algorithm originally developed for the simpler setting of max-affine functions. When suitably initialized, ABGD converges linearly to an $ε$-accurate estimate given $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(d\max(σ_z/ε,1)^2)$ observations where $σ_z^2$ denotes the noise variance. This implies exact recovery given $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(d)$ samples in the noiseless case. Also, such a rate is shown to be minimax optimal up to logarithmic factors. Synthetic numerical results corroborate the theoretical guarantees for ABGD. We also observe competitive performance compared to the state-of-the-art methods on real-world datasets.

Rank-data and action-trace datasets are typically recorded as linear sequences, although the constraints governing valid outcomes are often only partially ordered. These constraints may be temporal or process-based [24, 23, 16], causal [5], or dominance-based [28], and are usually not observed directly. Inferring them is important because they encode interpretable structure and support feasibility evaluation on new sequences. In these settings, however, the underlying relation is often incomplete: the latent structure is a partial order, or poset, in which pairs of items that can occur in either order have no precedence relation. Consequently, an observed order need not imply a true prerequisite relation; it may reflect scheduling, logging, or a single valid linearization of the latent partial order. Treating all observed precedences as real can therefore produce overly sequential and unrealistic structures, especially in workflow or LLM-agent settings where unnecessary ordering induces extra execution steps and compute.

Poisson subsampling is the default sampling scheme in differentially private machine learning, largely because its unstructured randomness yields tractable privacy amplification analyses. Yet this same randomness introduces substantial participation variance: each sample appears in very different numbers of training iterations. In this work, we show that this variance is not merely a practical artifact to be tolerated, but a fundamental source of suboptimal privacy amplification. We prove that Balanced Iteration Subsampling (BIS), a structured scheme in which each sample participates in exactly a fixed number of iterations, achieves stronger privacy amplification than Poisson subsampling and is optimal at both extremes of the noise spectrum ($σ\to 0$ and $σ\to \infty$). Our analysis reveals that the privacy-noise tradeoff is governed not by maximizing randomness, but by eliminating participation variance while preserving uniform marginal participation across iterations. To translate this asymptotic theory into finite-noise guarantees, we introduce a practical near-exact Monte Carlo accountant for BIS, which removes the analytical slack of existing RDP and composition-based PLD analyses. Evaluations across more than 60 practical DP-SGD configurations show that BIS consistently outperforms Poisson subsampling in the low-noise regimes most relevant for high-utility private training, reducing the required noise multiplier by up to $9.6\%$. These results overturn the common intuition that more sampling randomness necessarily yields stronger privacy amplification: in DP-SGD, structured participation can be both more practical and more private. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/dong-xin-ao-andy/bis-mc-accountant.

Tensor regression is an important tool for tensor data analysis, but existing works have not considered the impact of outliers, making them potentially sensitive to such data points. This paper proposes a low tubal rank robust regression method for analyzing high-dimensional tensor data with heavy-tailed random noise. The proposed method is based on a nonconvex relaxation of the tensor tubal rank within a general optimization framework, which allows for nonconvexity in both the loss and penalty functions. We develop an implementable estimation algorithm and establish its global convergence under some mild assumptions. Furthermore, we provide general statistical theories regarding stationary point, including the rates of convergence and bounds on the prediction error. These theoretical results cover many important models, such as linear models, generalized linear models, and Huber regression, and even encompass some nonconvex losses like correntropy and minimum distance criterion-induced losses. Supportive numerical evidence is provided through simulations and application studies.