Accurate short-term wind forecasts (STWFs), with time horizons from 0.5 to 6 hours, are essential for efficient integration of wind power to the electrical power grid. Physical models based on numerical weather predictions are currently not competitive, and research on machine learning approaches is ongoing. Two major challenges confronting these efforts are missing observations and weather-regime induced dependency shifts among wind variables at geographically distributed sites. In this paper we introduce approaches that address both of these challenges. We describe a new regime-aware approach to STWF that use auto-regressive hidden Markov models (AR-HMM), a subclass of conditional linear Gaussian (CLG) models. Although AR-HMMs are a natural representation for weather regimes, as with CLG models in general, exact inference is NP-hard when observations are missing (Lerner and Parr, 2001). Because of this high cost, we introduce a simple approximate inference method for AR-HMMs, which we believe has applications to other sequential and temporal problem domains that involve continuous variables. In an empirical evaluation on publicly available wind data from two geographically distinct regions, our approach makes significantly more accurate predictions than baseline models, and uncovers meteorologically relevant regimes.

We deal with the problem of variable selection when variables must be selected group-wise, with possibly overlapping groups defined a priori. In particular we propose a new optimization procedure for solving the regularized algorithm presented in Jacob et al. 09, where the group lasso penalty is generalized to overlapping groups of variables. While in Jacob et al. 09 the proposed implementation requires explicit replication of the variables belonging to more than one group, our iterative procedure is based on a combination of proximal methods in the primal space and constrained Newton method in a reduced dual space, corresponding to the active groups. This procedure provides a scalable alternative with no need for data duplication, and allows to deal with high dimensional problems without pre-processing to reduce the dimensionality of the data. The computational advantages of our scheme with respect to state-of-the-art algorithms using data duplication are shown empirically with numerical simulations.

We present a novel method for multitask learning (MTL) based on {\it manifold regularization}: assume that all task parameters lie on a manifold. This is the generalization of a common assumption made in the existing literature: task parameters share a common {\it linear} subspace. One proposed method uses the projection distance from the manifold to regularize the task parameters. The manifold structure and the task parameters are learned using an alternating optimization framework. When the manifold structure is fixed, our method decomposes across tasks which can be learnt independently. An approximation of the manifold regularization scheme is presented that preserves the convexity of the single task learning problem, and makes the proposed MTL framework efficient and easy to implement. We show the efficacy of our method on several datasets.

We define a copula process which describes the dependencies between arbitrarily many random variables independently of their marginal distributions. As an example, we develop a stochastic volatility model, Gaussian Copula Process Volatility (GCPV), to predict the latent standard deviations of a sequence of random variables. To make predictions we use Bayesian inference, with the Laplace approximation, and with Markov chain Monte Carlo as an alternative. We find our model can outperform GARCH on simulated and financial data. And unlike GARCH, GCPV can easily handle missing data, incorporate covariates other than time, and model a rich class of covariance structures.

In this paper, we regard clustering as ensembles of k-ary affinity relations and clusters correspond to subsets of objects with maximal average affinity relations. The average affinity relation of a cluster is relaxed and well approximated by a constrained homogenous function. We present an efficient procedure to solve this optimization problem, and show that the underlying clusters can be robustly revealed by using priors systematically constructed from the data. Our method can automatically select some points to form clusters, leaving other points un-grouped; thus it is inherently robust to large numbers of outliers, which has seriously limited the applicability of classical methods. Our method also provides a unified solution to clustering from k-ary affinity relations with k ≥ 2, that is, it applies to both graph-based and hypergraph-based clustering problems. Both theoretical analysis and experimental results show the superiority of our method over classical solutions to the clustering problem, especially when there exists a large number of outliers.

In this paper we consider the problem of learning an n x n Kernel matrix from m similarity matrices under general convex loss. Past research have extensively studied the m =1 case and have derived several algorithms which require sophisticated techniques like ACCP, SOCP, etc. The existing algorithms do not apply if one uses arbitrary losses and often can not handle m > 1 case. We present several provably convergent iterative algorithms, where each iteration requires either an SVM or a Multiple Kernel Learning (MKL) solver for m > 1 case. One of the major contributions of the paper is to extend the well known Mirror Descent(MD) framework to handle Cartesian product of psd matrices. This novel extension leads to an algorithm, called EMKL, which solves the problem in O(m^2 log n) iterations; in each iteration one solves an MKL involving m kernels and m eigen-decomposition of n x n matrices. By suitably defining a restriction on the objective function, a faster version of EMKL is proposed, called REKL, which avoids the eigen-decomposition. An alternative to both EMKL and REKL is also suggested which requires only an SVM solver. Experimental results on real world protein data set involving several similarity matrices illustrate the efficacy of the proposed algorithms.

Many data are naturally modeled by an unobserved hierarchical structure. In this paper we propose a flexible nonparametric prior over unknown data hierarchies. The approach uses nested stick-breaking processes to allow for trees of unbounded width and depth, where data can live at any node and are infinitely exchangeable. One can view our model as providing infinite mixtures where the components have a dependency structure corresponding to an evolutionary diffusion down a tree. By using a stick-breaking approach, we can apply Markov chain Monte Carlo methods based on slice sampling to perform Bayesian inference and simulate from the posterior distribution on trees. We apply our method to hierarchical clustering of images and topic modeling of text data.

Most current image categorization methods require large collections of manually annotated training examples to learn accurate visual recognition models. The time-consuming human labeling effort effectively limits these approaches to recognition problems involving a small number of different object classes. In order to address this shortcoming, in recent years several authors have proposed to learn object classifiers from weakly-labeled Internet images, such as photos retrieved by keyword-based image search engines. While this strategy eliminates the need for human supervision, the recognition accuracies of these methods are considerably lower than those obtained with fully-supervised approaches, because of the noisy nature of the labels associated to Web data. In this paper we investigate and compare methods that learn image classifiers by combining very few manually annotated examples (e.g., 1-10 images per class) and a large number of weakly-labeled Web photos retrieved using keyword-based image search. We cast this as a domain adaptation problem: given a few strongly-labeled examples in a target domain (the manually annotated examples) and many source domain examples (the weakly-labeled Web photos), learn classifiers yielding small generalization error on the target domain. Our experiments demonstrate that, for the same number of strongly-labeled examples, our domain adaptation approach produces significant recognition rate improvements over the best published results (e.g., 65% better when using 5 labeled training examples per class) and that our classifiers are one order of magnitude faster to learn and to evaluate than the best competing method, despite our use of large weakly-labeled data sets.

Predicting the execution time of computer programs is an important but challenging problem in the community of computer systems. Existing methods require experts to perform detailed analysis of program code in order to construct predictors or select important features. We recently developed a new system to automatically extract a large number of features from program execution on sample inputs, on which prediction models can be constructed without expert knowledge. In this paper we study the construction of predictive models for this problem. We propose the SPORE (Sparse POlynomial REgression) methodology to build accurate prediction models of program performance using feature data collected from program execution on sample inputs. Our two SPORE algorithms are able to build relationships between responses (e.g., the execution time of a computer program) and features, and select a few from hundreds of the retrieved features to construct an explicitly sparse and non-linear model to predict the response variable. The compact and explicitly polynomial form of the estimated model could reveal important insights into the computer program (e.g., features and their non-linear combinations that dominate the execution time), enabling a better understanding of the program’s behavior. Our evaluation on three widely used computer programs shows that SPORE methods can give accurate prediction with relative error less than 7% by using a moderate number of training data samples. In addition, we compare SPORE algorithms to state-of-the-art sparse regression algorithms, and show that SPORE methods, motivated by real applications, outperform the other methods in terms of both interpretability and prediction accuracy.

This paper tackles the complex problem of visually matching people in similar pose but with different clothes, background, and other appearance changes. We achieve this with a novel method for learning a nonlinear embedding based on several extensions to the Neighborhood Component Analysis (NCA) framework. Our method is convolutional, enabling it to scale to realistically-sized images. By cheaply labeling the head and hands in large video databases through Amazon Mechanical Turk (a crowd-sourcing service), we can use the task of localizing the head and hands as a proxy for determining body pose. We apply our method to challenging real-world data and show that it can generalize beyond hand localization to infer a more general notion of body pose. We evaluate our method quantitatively against other embedding methods. We also demonstrate that real-world performance can be improved through the use of synthetic data.