In the field of structural reliability, the Monte-Carlo estimator is considered as the reference probability estimator. However, it is still untractable for real engineering cases since it requires a high number of runs of the model. In order to reduce the number of computer experiments, many other approaches known as reliability methods have been proposed. A certain approach consists in replacing the original experiment by a surrogate which is much faster to evaluate. Nevertheless, it is often difficult (or even impossible) to quantify the error made by this substitution. In this paper an alternative approach is developed. It takes advantage of the kriging meta-modeling and importance sampling techniques. The proposed alternative estimator is finally applied to a finite element based structural reliability analysis.

Modern Internet services, such as those at Google, Yahoo!, and Amazon, handle billions of requests per day on clusters of thousands of computers. Because these services operate under strict performance requirements, a statistical understanding of their performance is of great practical interest. Such services are modeled by networks of queues, where each queue models one of the computers in the system. A key challenge is that the data are incomplete, because recording detailed information about every request to a heavily used system can require unacceptable overhead. In this paper we develop a Bayesian perspective on queueing models in which the arrival and departure times that are not observed are treated as latent variables. Underlying this viewpoint is the observation that a queueing model defines a deterministic transformation between the data and a set of independent variables called the service times. With this viewpoint in hand, we sample from the posterior distribution over missing data and model parameters using Markov chain Monte Carlo. We evaluate our framework on data from a benchmark Web application. We also present a simple technique for selection among nested queueing models. We are unaware of any previous work that considers inference in networks of queues in the presence of missing data.

Nonsingular estimation of high dimensional covariance matrices is an important step in many statistical procedures like classification, clustering, variable selection an future extraction. After a review of the essential background material, this paper introduces a technique we call slicing for obtaining a nonsingular covariance matrix of high dimensional data. Slicing is essentially assuming that the data has Kronecker delta covariance structure. Finally, we discuss the implications of the results in this paper and provide an example of classification for high dimensional gene expression data.

In nonparametric classification and regression problems, regularized kernel methods, in particular support vector machines, attract much attention in theoretical and in applied statistics. In an abstract sense, regularized kernel methods (simply called SVMs here) can be seen as regularized M-estimators for a parameter in a (typically infinite dimensional) reproducing kernel Hilbert space. For smooth loss functions, it is shown that the difference between the estimator, i.e.\ the empirical SVM, and the theoretical SVM is asymptotically normal with rate $\sqrt{n}$. That is, the standardized difference converges weakly to a Gaussian process in the reproducing kernel Hilbert space. As common in real applications, the choice of the regularization parameter may depend on the data. The proof is done by an application of the functional delta-method and by showing that the SVM-functional is suitably Hadamard-differentiable.

Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) and Single Index Models (SIMs) provide powerful generalizations of linear regression, where the target variable is assumed to be a (possibly unknown) 1-dimensional function of a linear predictor. In general, these problems entail non-convex estimation procedures, and, in practice, iterative local search heuristics are often used. Kalai and Sastry (2009) recently provided the first provably efficient method for learning SIMs and GLMs, under the assumptions that the data are in fact generated under a GLM and under certain monotonicity and Lipschitz constraints. However, to obtain provable performance, the method requires a fresh sample every iteration. In this paper, we provide algorithms for learning GLMs and SIMs, which are both computationally and statistically efficient. We also provide an empirical study, demonstrating their feasibility in practice.

The goal of decentralized optimization over a network is to optimize a global objective formed by a sum of local (possibly nonsmooth) convex functions using only local computation and communication. It arises in various application domains, including distributed tracking and localization, multi-agent co-ordination, estimation in sensor networks, and large-scale optimization in machine learning. We develop and analyze distributed algorithms based on dual averaging of subgradients, and we provide sharp bounds on their convergence rates as a function of the network size and topology. Our method of analysis allows for a clear separation between the convergence of the optimization algorithm itself and the effects of communication constraints arising from the network structure. In particular, we show that the number of iterations required by our algorithm scales inversely in the spectral gap of the network. The sharpness of this prediction is confirmed both by theoretical lower bounds and simulations for various networks. Our approach includes both the cases of deterministic optimization and communication, as well as problems with stochastic optimization and/or communication.

A wide class of regularization problems in machine learning and statistics employ a regularization term which is obtained by composing a simple convex function \omega with a linear transformation. This setting includes Group Lasso methods, the Fused Lasso and other total variation methods, multi-task learning methods and many more. In this paper, we present a general approach for computing the proximity operator of this class of regularizers, under the assumption that the proximity operator of the function \omega is known in advance. Our approach builds on a recent line of research on optimal first order optimization methods and uses fixed point iterations for numerically computing the proximity operator. It is more general than current approaches and, as we show with numerical simulations, computationally more efficient than available first order methods which do not achieve the optimal rate. In particular, our method outperforms state of the art O(1/T) methods for overlapping Group Lasso and matches optimal O(1/T^2) methods for the Fused Lasso and tree structured Group Lasso.

Computational approaches to transcription factor binding site identification have been actively researched for the past decade. Negative examples have long been utilized in de novo motif discovery and have been shown useful in transcription factor binding site search as well. However, understanding of the roles of negative examples in binding site search is still very limited. We propose the 2-centroid and optimal discriminating vector methods, taking into account negative examples. Cross-validation results on E. coli transcription factors show that the proposed methods benefit from negative examples, outperforming the centroid and position-specific scoring matrix methods. We further show that our proposed methods perform better than a state-of-the-art method. We characterize the proposed methods in the context of the other compared methods and show that, coupled with motif subtype identification, the proposed methods can be effectively applied to a wide range of transcription factors. Finally, we argue that the proposed methods are well-suited for eukaryotic transcription factors as well. Software tools are available at: http://biogrid.engr.uconn.edu/tfbs_search/.

Nonparametric methods are widely applicable to statistical inference problems, since they rely on a few modeling assumptions. In this context, the fresh look advocated here permeates benefits from variable selection and compressive sampling, to robustify nonparametric regression against outliers - that is, data markedly deviating from the postulated models. A variational counterpart to least-trimmed squares regression is shown closely related to an L0-(pseudo)norm-regularized estimator, that encourages sparsity in a vector explicitly modeling the outliers. This connection suggests efficient solvers based on convex relaxation, which lead naturally to a variational M-type estimator equivalent to the least-absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso). Outliers are identified by judiciously tuning regularization parameters, which amounts to controlling the sparsity of the outlier vector along the whole robustification path of Lasso solutions. Reduced bias and enhanced generalization capability are attractive features of an improved estimator obtained after replacing the L0-(pseudo)norm with a nonconvex surrogate. The novel robust spline-based smoother is adopted to cleanse load curve data, a key task aiding operational decisions in the envisioned smart grid system. Computer simulations and tests on real load curve data corroborate the effectiveness of the novel sparsity-controlling robust estimators.

Many web-search queries serve as the beginning of an exploration of an unknown space of information, rather than looking for a specific web page. To answer such queries effec- tively, the search engine should attempt to organize the space of relevant information in a way that facilitates exploration. We describe the Aspector system that computes aspects for a given query. Each aspect is a set of search queries that together represent a distinct information need relevant to the original search query. To serve as an effective means to explore the space, Aspector computes aspects that are orthogonal to each other and to have high combined coverage. Aspector combines two sources of information to compute aspects. We discover candidate aspects by analyzing query logs, and cluster them to eliminate redundancies. We then use a mass-collaboration knowledge base (e.g., Wikipedia) to compute candidate aspects for queries that occur less frequently and to group together aspects that are likely to be semantically related. We present a user study that indicates that the aspects we compute are rated favorably against three competing alternatives related searches proposed by Google, cluster labels assigned by the Clusty search engine, and navigational searches proposed by Bing.