Statistical Learning
Cultural Analytics of Large Datasets from Flickr
Ushizima, Daniela (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory) | Manovich, Lev (University of California, San Diego) | Margolis, Todd (University of California, San Diego) | Douglas, Jeremy (Ashford University)
Deluge became a metaphor to describe the amount of information to which we are subjected, and very often we feel we are drowning while our access to information is rising. Devising mechanisms for exploring massive image sets according to perceptual attributes is still a challenge, even more when dealing with user-generated social media content. Such images tend to be heterogenous, and using metadata-only can be misleading. This paper describes a set of tools designed to analyze large sets of user-created art related images using image features describing color, texture, composition and orientation. The proposed pipeline permits to discriminate Flickr groups in terms of feature vectors and clustering parameters. The algorithms are general enough to be applied to other domains in which the main question is about the variability of the images.
Modeling Spread of Disease from Social Interactions
Sadilek, Adam (University of Rochester) | Kautz, Henry (University of Rochester) | Silenzio, Vincent (University of Rochester)
Research in computational epidemiology to date has concentrated on coarse-grained statistical analysis of populations, often synthetic ones. By contrast, this paper focuses on fine-grained modeling of the spread of infectious diseases throughout a large real-world social network. Specifically, we study the roles that social ties and interactions between specific individuals play in the progress of a contagion. We focus on public Twitter data, where we find that for every health-related message there are more than 1,000 unrelated ones. This class imbalance makes classification particularly challenging. Nonetheless, we present a framework that accurately identifies sick individuals from the content of online communication. Evaluation on a sample of 2.5 million geo-tagged Twitter messages shows that social ties to infected, symptomatic people, as well as the intensity of recent co-location, sharply increase one's likelihood of contracting the illness in the near future. To our knowledge, this work is the first to model the interplay of social activity, human mobility, and the spread of infectious disease in a large real-world population. Furthermore, we provide the first quantifiable estimates of the characteristics of disease transmission on a large scale without active user participation---a step towards our ability to model and predict the emergence of global epidemics from day-to-day interpersonal interactions.
More of a Receiver Than a Giver: Why Do People Unfollow in Twitter?
Kwak, Haewoon (Telefonica Research) | Moon, Sue (KAIST) | Lee, Wonjae (KAIST)
We propose a logistic regression model taking into account two analytically different sets of factorsโstructure and action. The factors include individual, dyadic, and triadic properties between ego and alter whose tie breakup is under consideration. From the fitted model using a large-scale data, we discover 5 structural and 7 actional variables to have significant explanatory power for unfollow. One unique finding from our quantitative analysis is that people appreciate receiving acknowledgements from others even in virtually unilateral communication relationships and are less likely to unfollow them: people are more of a receiver than a giver.
Transductive Learning for Real-Time Twitter Search
Zhang, Xin (Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences) | He, Ben (Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences) | Luo, Tiejian (Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)
Recency is an important dimension of relevance for real-time Twitter search as users tend to be interested in fresh news and events. By incorporating various sources of evidence, the application of learning to rank (LTR) algorithms to real-time Twitter search has shown beneficial in finding not only relevant, but also recent tweets in response to given queries. However, the potential effectiveness brought by LTR may not have been fully exploited due to the lack of labeled data available for properly learning a ranking model, since human labels are expensive in real-world applications. To this end, this paper proposes a transductive algorithm that incrementally aggregate the labeled tweets through an iterative process. Experimental results on the standard Tweets11 dataset show that our approach is able to outperform strong baselines without the use of human labels.
Coping with the Document Frequency Bias in Sentiment Classification
Rafrafi, Abdelhalim (University Pierre et Marie Curie) | Guigue, Vincent (University Pierre et Marie Curie) | Gallinari, Patrick (University Pierre et Marie Curie)
In this article, we study the polarity detection problem using linear supervised classifiers. We show the interest of penalizing the document frequencies in the regularization process to increase the accuracy. We propose a systematic comparison of different loss and regularization functions on this particular task using the Amazon dataset. Then, we evaluate our models according to three criteria: accuracy, sparsity and subjectivity. The subjectivity is measured by projecting our dictionary and optimized weight vector on the SentiWordNet lexicon. This original approach highlights a bias in the selection of the relevant terms during the regularization procedure: frequent terms are overweighted compared to their intrinsic subjectivities.We show that this bias appears whatever the chosen loss or regularization and on all datasets: it is closely link to the gradient descent technique. Penalizing the document frequency during the learning step enables us to improve significantly our performances. A lot of sentimental markers appear rarely and thus, are unappreciated by statistical learning algorithms. Explicitly boosting their influences leads to increasing the accuracy in the sentiment classification task.
The Pulse of News in Social Media: Forecasting Popularity
Bandari, Roja (University of California Los Angeles) | Asur, Sitaram (HP Labs) | Huberman, Bernardo A (HP Labs)
News articles are extremely time sensitive by nature. There is also intense competition among news items to propagate as widely as possible. Hence, the task of predicting the popularity of news items on the social web is both interesting and challenging. Prior research has dealt with predicting eventual online popularity based on early popularity. It is most desirable, however, to predict the popularity of items prior to their release, fostering the possibility of appropriate decision making to modify an article and the manner of its publication. In this paper, we construct a multi-dimensional feature space derived from properties of an article and evaluate the efficacy of these features to serve as predictors of online popularity. We examine both regression and classification algorithms and demonstrate that despite randomness in human behavior, it is possible to predict ranges of popularity on twitter with an overall 84% accuracy. Our study also serves to illustrate the differences between traditionally prominent sources and those immensely popular on the social web.
Automatic Versus Human Navigation in Information Networks
West, Robert (Stanford University) | Leskovec, Jure (Stanford University)
People regularly face tasks that can be understood as navigation in information networks, where the goal is to find a path between two given nodes. In many such situations, the navigator only gets local access to the node currently under inspection and its immediate neighbors. This lack of global information about the network notwithstanding, humans tend to be good at finding short paths, despite the fact that real-world networks are typically very large. One potential reason for this could be that humans possess vast amounts of background knowledge about the world, which they leverage to make good guesses about possible solutions. In this paper we ask the question: Are human-like high-level reasoning skills really necessary for finding short paths? To answer this question, we design a number of navigation agents without such skills, which use only simple numerical features. We evaluate the agents on the task of navigating Wikipedia, a domain for which we also possess large-scale human navigation data. We observe that the agents find shorter paths than humans on average and therefore conclude that, perhaps surprisingly, no sophisticated background knowledge or high-level reasoning is required for navigating the complex Wikipedia network.
Social Media and Citizen Engagement in a City-State: A Study of Singapore
Skoric, Marko M. (Nanyang Technological University) | Pan, Ji (Nanyang Technological University) | Poor, Nathaniel D (Independent Scholar)
Social media plays an important role in the process of political engagement, especially in societies where significant constraints over traditional media and participation still exist. Little is known about how social media use is related to these constraints. This study examines how citizensโ perceptions of government control predict social media use and how this use is related to offline participation in the context of a city-state, Singapore. Based on a national survey of 2000 respondents, we found that perceptions of control over traditional media and political activity increase content production on social media and that perceived control of the mass media motivates citizens to consume political content on social media. Interestingly, perceptions of government control over the Internet reduced rather than increased social media production. More importantly, we find that social media use is related to a greater likelihood of offline citizen participation, namely attendance of political rallies. The findings suggest that social media alters the balance of power in the dependency relationships that exist between the government, media organizations and citizens, creating new venues for online political discourse which in turn help promote real-world political participation.
Trust Propagation with Mixed-Effects Models
Overgoor, Jan (Stanford University) | Wulczyn, Ellery (Stanford University) | Potts, Christopher (Stanford University)
Web-based social networks typically use public trust systems to facilitate interactions between strangers. These systems can be corrupted by misleading information spread under the cover of anonymity, or exhibit a strong bias towards positive feedback, originating from the fear of reciprocity. Trust propagation algorithms seek to overcome these shortcomings by inferring trust ratings between strangers from trust ratings between acquaintances and the structure of the network that connects them. We investigate a trust propagation algorithm that is based on user triads where the trust one user has in another is predicted based on an intermediary user. The propagation function can be applied iteratively to propagate trust along paths between a source user and a target user. We evaluate this approach using the trust network of the CouchSurfing community, which consists of 7.6M trust-valued edges between 1.1M users. We show that our model out-performs one that relies only on the trustworthiness of the target user (a kind of public trust system). In addition, we show that performance is significantly improved by bringing in user-level variability using mixed-effects regression models.
The Livehoods Project: Utilizing Social Media to Understand the Dynamics of a City
Cranshaw, Justin (Carnegie Mellon University) | Schwartz, Raz (Carnegie Mellon University) | Hong, Jason (Carnegie Mellon University) | Sadeh, Norman (Carnegie Mellon University)
Studying the social dynamics of a city on a large scale has tra- ditionally been a challenging endeavor, requiring long hours of observation and interviews, usually resulting in only a par- tial depiction of reality. At the same time, the boundaries of municipal organizational units, such as neighborhoods and districts, are largely statically defined by the city government and do not always reflect the character of life in these ar- eas. To address both difficulties, we introduce a clustering model and research methodology for studying the structure and composition of a city based on the social media its res- idents generate. We use data from approximately 18 million check-ins collected from users of a location-based online so- cial network. The resulting clusters, which we call Livehoods, are representations of the dynamic urban areas that comprise the city. We take an interdisciplinary approach to validating these clusters, interviewing 27 residents of Pittsburgh, PA, to see how their perceptions of the city project onto our findings there. Our results provide strong support for the discovered clusters, showing how Livehoods reveal the distinctly charac- terized areas of the city and the forces that shape them.