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 Statistical Learning


Conformal Prediction for Time-series Forecasting with Change Points

Neural Information Processing Systems

Conformal prediction has been explored as a general and efficient way to provide uncertainty quantification for time series. However, current methods struggle to handle time series data with change points -- sudden shifts in the underlying data-generating process. In this paper, we propose a novel Conformal Prediction for Time-series with Change points (CPTC) algorithm, addressing this gap by integrating a model to predict the underlying state with online conformal prediction to model uncertainties in non-stationary time series. We prove CPTC's validity and improved adaptivity in the time series setting under minimum assumptions, and demonstrate CPTC's practical effectiveness on 6 synthetic and real-world datasets, showing improved validity and adaptivity compared to state-of-the-art baselines.


Global Prompt Refinement with Non-Interfering Attention Masking for One-Shot Federated Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

Federated Prompt Learning (FPL) enables communication-efficient adaptation by tuning lightweight prompts on top of frozen pre-trained models. Existing FPL methods typically rely on global information, which is only available after the second training round, to facilitate collaboration among client models. Therefore, they are inherently dependent on multi-round communication to fully exhibit their strengths. Moreover, existing one-shot federated learning methods typically focus on fitting seen tasks, but lack cross-task generalization. To bridge this gap, we propose the Global Prompt Refinement with Non-Interfering Attention Masking (GPR-NIAM) method for one-shot FPL.


An Efficient Local Search Approach for Polarized Community Discovery in Signed Networks

Neural Information Processing Systems

Signed networks, where edges are labeled as positive or negative to represent friendly or antagonistic interactions, provide a natural framework for analyzing polarization, trust, and conflict in social systems. Detecting meaningful group structures in such networks is crucial for understanding online discourse, political divisions, and trust dynamics. A key challenge is to identify communities that are internally cohesive and externally antagonistic, while allowing for neutral or unaligned vertices. In this paper, we propose a method for identifying k polarized communities that addresses a major limitation of prior methods: their tendency to produce highly size-imbalanced solutions. We introduce a novel optimization objective that avoids such imbalance. In addition, it is well known that approximation algorithms based on local search are highly effective for clustering signed networks when neutral vertices are not allowed. We build on this idea and design the first local search algorithm that extends to the setting with neutral vertices while scaling to large networks. By connecting our approach to block-coordinate Frank-Wolfe optimization, we prove a linear convergence rate, enabled by the structure of our objective. Experiments on real-world and synthetic datasets demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in solution quality, while remaining competitive in computational efficiency.


GAMMA: Gated Multi-hop Message Passing for Homophily-Agnostic Node Representation in GNNs

Neural Information Processing Systems

The success of Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) leverages the homophily principle, where connected nodes share similar features and labels. However, this assumption breaks down in heterophilic graphs, where same-class nodes are often distributed across distant neighborhoods rather than immediate connections. Recent attempts expand the receptive field through multi-hop aggregation schemes that explicitly preserve intermediate representations from each hop distance. While effective at capturing heterophilic patterns, these methods require separate weight matrices per hop and feature concatenation, causing parameters to scale linearly with hop count. This leads to high computational complexity and GPU memory consumption. We propose Gated Multi-hop Message Passing (GAMMA), where nodes assess how relevant the aggregated information is from their k-hop neighbors. This assessment occurs through multiple refinement steps where the node compares each hop's embedding with its current representation, allowing it to focus on the most informative hops. During the forward pass, GAMMA finds the optimal mix of multi-hop information local to each node using a single feature vector without needing separate representations for each hop, thereby maintaining dimensionality comparable to single hop GNNs. In addition, we propose a weight sharing scheme that leverages a unified transformation for aggregated features from multiple hops so the global heterophilic patterns specific to each hop are learned during training.


Localist Topographic Expert Routing: ABarrel Cortex-Inspired Modular Network for Sensorimotor Processing

Neural Information Processing Systems

Biological sensorimotor systems process information through spatially organized, functionally specialized modules. A canonical example is the rodent barrel cortex, in which each vibrissa (whisker) projects to a dedicated cortical column, forming a precise somatotopic map. This anatomical organization stands in stark contrast to the architectures of most artificial neural networks, which are typically monolithic or rely on expert-isolated mixture-of-experts (MoE) mechanisms. In this work, we introduce a brain-inspired modular architecture that treats the barrel cortex as a biologically constrained instantiation of an expert system. Each module (or "expert") corresponds to a cortical column composed of multiple neuron subtypes spanning vertical cortical layers.


Cascaded Language Models for Cost-Effective Human-AI Decision-Making

Neural Information Processing Systems

A challenge in human-AI decision-making is to balance three factors: the correctness of predictions, the cost of knowledge and reasoning complexity, and the confidence about whether to abstain from automated answers or escalate to human experts. In this work, we present a cascaded LLM decision framework that adaptively delegates tasks across multiple tiers of expertise - a base model for initial candidate answers, a more capable and knowledgeable (but costlier) large model, and a human expert for when the model cascade abstains.


Aligning Evaluation with Clinical Priorities: Calibration, Label Shift, and Error Costs

Neural Information Processing Systems

Machine learning-based decision support systems are increasingly deployed in clinical settings, where probabilistic scoring functions are used to inform and prioritize patient management decisions. However, widely used scoring rules, such as accuracy and AUC-ROC, fail to adequately reflect key clinical priorities, including calibration, robustness to distributional shifts, and sensitivity to asymmetric error costs. In this work, we propose a principled yet practical evaluation framework for selecting calibrated thresholded classifiers that explicitly accounts for uncertainty in class prevalences and domain-specific cost asymmetries. Building on the theory of proper scoring rules, particularly the Schervish representation, we derive an adjusted variant of cross-entropy (log score) that averages cost-weighted performance over clinically relevant ranges of class balance. The resulting evaluation is simple to apply, sensitive to clinical deployment conditions, and designed to prioritize models that are both calibrated and robust to real-world variations.


Single GPUTask Adaptation of Pathology Foundation Models for Whole Slide Image Analysis

Neural Information Processing Systems

Pathology foundation models (PFMs) have emerged as powerful tools for analyzing whole slide images (WSIs). However, adapting these pretrained PFMs for specific clinical tasks presents considerable challenges, primarily due to the availability of only weak (WSI-level) labels for gigapixel images, necessitating multiple instance learning (MIL) paradigm for effective WSI analysis. This paper proposes a novel approach for single-GPUTask Adaptation of PFMs (TAPFM) that uses vision transformer (ViT) attention for MIL aggregation while optimizing both for feature representations and attention weights. The proposed approach maintains separate computational graphs for MIL aggregator and the PFM to create stable training dynamics that align with downstream task objectives during end-to-end adaptation. Evaluated on mutation prediction tasks for bladder cancer and lung adenocarcinoma across institutional and The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) cohorts, TAPFM consistently outperforms conventional approaches, with H-Optimus-0 (TAPFM) outperforming the benchmarks. TAPFM effectively handles multi-label classification of actionable mutations as well. Thus, TAPFM makes adaptation of powerful pre-trained PFMs practical on standard hardware for various clinical applications.


ItDPDM: Information-Theoretic Discrete Poisson Diffusion Model

Neural Information Processing Systems

Generative modeling of non-negative, discrete data, such as symbolic music, remains challenging due to two persistent limitations in existing methods. First, most approaches rely on modeling continuous embeddings, which are not wellsuited for inherently discrete data distributions.


0fa694fb9f1e265117e8da75966820fe-Paper-Conference.pdf

Neural Information Processing Systems

We consider how to construct state abstractions compatible with a given set of abstract actions, to obtain a well-formed abstract Markov decision process (MDP). We show that the Bellman equation suggests that abstract states should represent distributions over states in the ground MDP; we characterize the conditions under which the resulting process is Markov and approximately model-preserving, derive an algorithm for constructing the abstract MDP, and apply it to visual chain and maze tasks. We generalize these results to the factored actions case, characterize the conditions that lead to factored abstract states, and apply the resulting algorithm to a visual grid and Montezuma's Revenge. These results provide a principled, powerful framework for learning neurosymbolic abstract Markov decision processes.