Echo state network (ESN) is viewed as a temporal non-orthogonal expansion with pseudo-random parameters. Such expansions naturally give rise to regressors of various relevance to a teacher output. We illustrate that often only a certain amount of the generated echo-regressors effectively explain the variance of the teacher output and also that sole local regularization is not able to provide in-depth information concerning the importance of the generated regressors. The importance is therefore determined by a joint calculation of the individual variance contributions and Bayesian relevance using locally regularized orthogonal forward regression (LROFR) algorithm. This information can be advantageously used in a variety of ways for an in-depth analysis of an ESN structure and its state-space parameters in relation to the unknown dynamics of the underlying problem. We present locally regularized linear readout built using LROFR. The readout may have a different dimensionality than an ESN model itself, and besides improving robustness and accuracy of an ESN it relates the echo-regressors to different features of the training data and may determine what type of an additional readout is suitable for a task at hand. Moreover, as flexibility of the linear readout has limitations and might sometimes be insufficient for certain tasks, we also present a radial basis function (RBF) readout built using LROFR. It is a flexible and parsimonious readout with excellent generalization abilities and is a viable alternative to readouts based on a feed-forward neural network (FFNN) or an RBF net built using relevance vector machine (RVM).

Diabetes management is a difficult task for patients, who must monitor and control their blood glucose levels in order to avoid serious diabetic complications. This paper describes three emerging applications that employ AI to ease this task: (1) case-based decision support for diabetes management; (2) machine learning classification of blood glucose plots; and (3) support vector regression for blood glucose prediction. The first application provides decision support by detecting blood glucose control problems and recommending therapeutic adjustments to correct them. The third aims to build a hypoglycemia predictor that could alert patients to dangerously low blood glucose levels in time to take preventive action.

Diabetes management is a difficult task for patients, who must monitor and control their blood glucose levels in order to avoid serious diabetic complications. It is a difficult task for physicians, who must manually interpret large volumes of blood glucose data to tailor therapy to the needs of each patient. This paper describes three emerging applications that employ AI to ease this task: (1) case-based decision support for diabetes management; (2) machine learning classification of blood glucose plots; and (3) support vector regression for blood glucose prediction. The first application provides decision support by detecting blood glucose control problems and recommending therapeutic adjustments to correct them. The second provides an automated screen for excessive glycemic variability. The third aims to build a hypoglycemia predictor that could alert patients to dangerously low blood glucose levels in time to take preventive action. All are products of the 4 Diabetes Support SystemTM project, which uses AI to promote the health and wellbeing of people with type 1 diabetes. These emerging applications could potentially benefit 20 million patients who are at risk for devastating complications, thereby improving quality of life and reducing health care cost expenditures.

NewsFinder automates the steps involved in finding, selecting, categorizing, and publishing news stories that meet relevance criteria for the Artificial Intelligence community. The software combines a broad search of online news sources with topic-specific trained models and heuristics. Since August 2010, the program has been used to operate the AI in the News service that is part of the AAAI AITopics website.

Labor monitoring is crucial in modern health care, as it can be used to detect (and help avoid) significant problems with the fetus. In this article we focus on detecting hypoxia (or oxygen deprivation), a very serious condition that can arise from different pathologies and can lead to life-long disability and death. We present a novel approach to hypoxia detection based on recordings of the uterine pressure and fetal heart rate, which are obtained using standard labor monitoring devices. The key idea is to learn models of the fetal response to signals from its environment. Then, we use the parameters of these models as attributes in a binary classification problem. A running count of pathological classifications over several time periods is taken to provide the current label for the fetus. We use a unique database of real clinical recordings, both from normal and pathological cases. Our approach classifies correctly more than half the pathological cases, 1.5 hours before delivery. These are cases that were missed by clinicians; early detection of this type would have allowed the physician to perform a Caesarean section, possibly avoiding the negative outcome.

In computer experiments, a mathematical model implemented on a computer is used to represent complex physical phenomena. These models, known as computer simulators, enable experimental study of a virtual representation of the complex phenomena. Simulators can be thought of as complex functions that take many inputs and provide an output. Often these simulators are themselves expensive to compute, and may be approximated by "surrogate models" such as statistical regression models. In this paper we consider a new kind of surrogate model, a Bayesian ensemble of trees (Chipman et al. 2010), with the specific goal of learning enough about the simulator that a particular feature of the simulator can be estimated. We focus on identifying the simulator's global minimum. Utilizing the Bayesian version of the Expected Improvement criterion (Jones et al. 1998), we show that this ensemble is particularly effective when the simulator is ill-behaved, exhibiting nonstationarity or abrupt changes in the response. A number of illustrations of the approach are given, including a tidal power application.

We propose to describe the variety of galaxies from SDSS by using only one affine parameter. To this aim, we build the Principal Curve (P-curve) passing through the spine of the data point cloud, considering the eigenspace derived from Principal Component Analysis of morphological, physical and photometric galaxy properties. Thus, galaxies can be labeled, ranked and classified by a single arc length value of the curve, measured at the unique closest projection of the data points on the P-curve. We find that the P-curve has a "W" letter shape with 3 turning points, defining 4 branches that represent distinct galaxy populations. This behavior is controlled mainly by 2 properties, namely u-r and SFR. We further present the variations of several galaxy properties as a function of arc length. Luminosity functions variate from steep Schechter fits at low arc length, to double power law and ending in Log-normal fits at high arc length. Galaxy clustering shows increasing autocorrelation power at large scales as arc length increases. PCA analysis allowed to find peculiar galaxy populations located apart from the main cloud of data points, such as small red galaxies dominated by a disk, of relatively high stellar mass-to-light ratio and surface mass density. The P-curve allows not only dimensionality reduction, but also provides supporting evidence for relevant physical models and scenarios in extragalactic astronomy: 1) Evidence for the hierarchical merging scenario in the formation of a selected group of red massive galaxies. These galaxies present a log-normal r-band luminosity function, which might arise from multiplicative processes involved in this scenario. 2) Connection between the onset of AGN activity and star formation quenching, which appears in green galaxies when transitioning from blue to red populations. (Full abstract in downloadable version)

We consider the problem of learning a measure of distance among vectors in a feature space and propose a hybrid method that simultaneously learns from similarity ratings assigned to pairs of vectors and class labels assigned to individual vectors. Our method is based on a generative model in which class labels can provide information that is not encoded in feature vectors but yet relates to perceived similarity between objects. Experiments with synthetic data as well as a real medical image retrieval problem demonstrate that leveraging class labels through use of our method improves retrieval performance significantly.

The problem of modeling and predicting spatiotemporal traffic phenomena over an urban road network is important to many traffic applications such as detecting and forecasting congestion hotspots. This paper presents a decentralized data fusion and active sensing (D2FAS) algorithm for mobile sensors to actively explore the road network to gather and assimilate the most informative data for predicting the traffic phenomenon. We analyze the time and communication complexity of D2FAS and demonstrate that it can scale well with a large number of observations and sensors. We provide a theoretical guarantee on its predictive performance to be equivalent to that of a sophisticated centralized sparse approximation for the Gaussian process (GP) model: The computation of such a sparse approximate GP model can thus be parallelized and distributed among the mobile sensors (in a Google-like MapReduce paradigm), thereby achieving efficient and scalable prediction. We also theoretically guarantee its active sensing performance that improves under various practical environmental conditions. Empirical evaluation on real-world urban road network data shows that our D2FAS algorithm is significantly more time-efficient and scalable than state-of-the-art centralized algorithms while achieving comparable predictive performance.

With the advent of kernel methods, automating the task of specifying a suitable kernel has become increasingly important. In this context, the Multiple Kernel Learning (MKL) problem of finding a combination of pre-specified base kernels that is suitable for the task at hand has received significant attention from researchers. In this paper we show that Multiple Kernel Learning can be framed as a standard binary classification problem with additional constraints that ensure the positive definiteness of the learned kernel. Framing MKL in this way has the distinct advantage that it makes it easy to leverage the extensive research in binary classification to develop better performing and more scalable MKL algorithms that are conceptually simpler, and, arguably, more accessible to practitioners. Experiments on nine data sets from different domains show that, despite its simplicity, the proposed technique compares favorably with current leading MKL approaches.