In this paper we de ne conditional random elds in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces and show connections to Gaussian Process classi cation. More speci cally, we prove decomposition results for undirected graphical models and we give constructions for kernels. Finally we present e cient means of solving the optimization problem using reduced rank decompositions and we show how stationarity can be exploited e ciently in the optimization process.

Classical learning assumes the learner is given a labeled data sample, from which it learns a model. The field of Active Learning deals with the situation where the learner begins not with a training sample, but instead with resources that it can use to obtain information to help identify the optimal model. To better understand this task, this paper presents and analyses the simplified "(budgeted) active model selection" version, which captures the pure exploration aspect of many active learning problems in a clean and simple problem formulation. Here the learner can use a fixed budget of "model probes" (where each probe evaluates the specified model on a random indistinguishable instance) to identify which of a given set of possible models has the highest expected accuracy. Our goal is a policy that sequentially determines which model to probe next, based on the information observed so far. We present a formal description of this task, and show that it is NPhard in general. We then investigate a number of algorithms for this task, including several existing ones (eg, "Round-Robin", "Interval Estimation", "Gittins") as well as some novel ones (e.g., "Biased-Robin"), describing first their approximation properties and then their empirical performance on various problem instances. We observe empirically that the simple biased-robin algorithm significantly outperforms the other algorithms in the case of identical costs and priors.

Maximum a Posteriori assignment (MAP) is the problem of finding the most probable instantiation of a set of variables given the partial evidence on the other variables in a Bayesian network. MAP has been shown to be a NP-hard problem [22], even for constrained networks, such as polytrees [18]. Hence, previous approaches often fail to yield any results for MAP problems in large complex Bayesian networks. To address this problem, we propose AnnealedMAP algorithm, a simulated annealing-based MAP algorithm. The AnnealedMAP algorithm simulates a non-homogeneous Markov chain whose invariant function is a probability density that concentrates itself on the modes of the target density. We tested this algorithm on several real Bayesian networks. The results show that, while maintaining good quality of the MAP solutions, the AnnealedMAP algorithm is also able to solve many problems that are beyond the reach of previous approaches.

We present a novel spectral learning algorithm for simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) from range data with known correspondences. This algorithm is an instance of a general spectral system identification framework, from which it inherits several desirable properties, including statistical consistency and no local optima. Compared with popular batch optimization or multiple-hypothesis tracking (MHT) methods for range-only SLAM, our spectral approach offers guaranteed low computational requirements and good tracking performance. Compared with popular extended Kalman filter (EKF) or extended information filter (EIF) approaches, and many MHT ones, our approach does not need to linearize a transition or measurement model; such linearizations can cause severe errors in EKFs and EIFs, and to a lesser extent MHT, particularly for the highly non-Gaussian posteriors encountered in range-only SLAM. We provide a theoretical analysis of our method, including finite-sample error bounds. Finally, we demonstrate on a real-world robotic SLAM problem that our algorithm is not only theoretically justified, but works well in practice: in a comparison of multiple methods, the lowest errors come from a combination of our algorithm with batch optimization, but our method alone produces nearly as good a result at far lower computational cost.

We consider the setting of sequential prediction of arbitrary sequences based on specialized experts. We first provide a review of the relevant literature and present two theoretical contributions: a general analysis of the specialist aggregation rule of Freund et al. (1997) and an adaptation of fixed-share rules of Herbster and Warmuth (1998) in this setting. We then apply these rules to the sequential short-term (one-day-ahead) forecasting of electricity consumption; to do so, we consider two data sets, a Slovakian one and a French one, respectively concerned with hourly and half-hourly predictions. We follow a general methodology to perform the stated empirical studies and detail in particular tuning issues of the learning parameters. The introduced aggregation rules demonstrate an improved accuracy on the data sets at hand; the improvements lie in a reduced mean squared error but also in a more robust behavior with respect to large occasional errors.

Consider a weighted or unweighted k-nearest neighbor graph that has been built on n data points drawn randomly according to some density p on R^d. We study the convergence of the shortest path distance in such graphs as the sample size tends to infinity. We prove that for unweighted kNN graphs, this distance converges to an unpleasant distance function on the underlying space whose properties are detrimental to machine learning. We also study the behavior of the shortest path distance in weighted kNN graphs.

Prediction markets are used in real life to predict outcomes of interest such as presidential elections. This paper presents a mathematical theory of artificial prediction markets for supervised learning of conditional probability estimators. The artificial prediction market is a novel method for fusing the prediction information of features or trained classifiers, where the fusion result is the contract price on the possible outcomes. The market can be trained online by updating the participants' budgets using training examples. Inspired by the real prediction markets, the equations that govern the market are derived from simple and reasonable assumptions. Efficient numerical algorithms are presented for solving these equations. The obtained artificial prediction market is shown to be a maximum likelihood estimator. It generalizes linear aggregation, existent in boosting and random forest, as well as logistic regression and some kernel methods. Furthermore, the market mechanism allows the aggregation of specialized classifiers that participate only on specific instances. Experimental comparisons show that the artificial prediction markets often outperform random forest and implicit online learning on synthetic data and real UCI datasets. Moreover, an extensive evaluation for pelvic and abdominal lymph node detection in CT data shows that the prediction market improves adaboost's detection rate from 79.6% to 81.2% at 3 false positives/volume.

In this paper, we consider the classic measurement error regression scenario in which our independent, or design, variables are observed with several sources of additive noise. We will show that our motivating example's replicated measurements on both the design and dependent variables may be leveraged to enhance a sparse regression algorithm. Specifically, we estimate the variance and use it to scale our design variables. We demonstrate the efficacy of scaling from several points of view and validate it empirically with a biomass characterization data set using two of the most widely used sparse algorithms: least angle regression (LARS) and the Dantzig selector (DS).

The restricted Boltzmann machine (RBM) is a flexible tool for modeling complex data, however there have been significant computational difficulties in using RBMs to model high-dimensional multinomial observations. In natural language processing applications, words are naturally modeled by K-ary discrete distributions, where K is determined by the vocabulary size and can easily be in the hundreds of thousands. The conventional approach to training RBMs on word observations is limited because it requires sampling the states of K-way softmax visible units during block Gibbs updates, an operation that takes time linear in K. In this work, we address this issue by employing a more general class of Markov chain Monte Carlo operators on the visible units, yielding updates with computational complexity independent of K. We demonstrate the success of our approach by training RBMs on hundreds of millions of word n-grams using larger vocabularies than previously feasible and using the learned features to improve performance on chunking and sentiment classification tasks, achieving state-of-the-art results on the latter.

A new generalized multilinear regression model, termed the Higher-Order Partial Least Squares (HOPLS), is introduced with the aim to predict a tensor (multiway array) $\tensor{Y}$ from a tensor $\tensor{X}$ through projecting the data onto the latent space and performing regression on the corresponding latent variables. HOPLS differs substantially from other regression models in that it explains the data by a sum of orthogonal Tucker tensors, while the number of orthogonal loadings serves as a parameter to control model complexity and prevent overfitting. The low dimensional latent space is optimized sequentially via a deflation operation, yielding the best joint subspace approximation for both $\tensor{X}$ and $\tensor{Y}$. Instead of decomposing $\tensor{X}$ and $\tensor{Y}$ individually, higher order singular value decomposition on a newly defined generalized cross-covariance tensor is employed to optimize the orthogonal loadings. A systematic comparison on both synthetic data and real-world decoding of 3D movement trajectories from electrocorticogram (ECoG) signals demonstrate the advantages of HOPLS over the existing methods in terms of better predictive ability, suitability to handle small sample sizes, and robustness to noise.