Case vs control comparisons have been the classical approach to the study of neurological diseases. However, most patients will not fall cleanly into either group. Instead, clinicians will typically find patients that cannot be classified as having clearly progressed into the disease state. For those subjects, very little can be said about their brain function on the basis of analyses of group differences. To describe the intermediate brain function requires models that interpolate between the disease states. We have chosen Gaussian Processes (GP) regression to obtain a continuous spectrum of brain activation and to extract the unknown disease progression profile. Our models incorporate spatial distribution of measures of activation, e.g. the correlation of an fMRI trace with an input stimulus, and so constitute ultra-high multi-variate GP regressors. We applied GPs to model fMRI image phenotypes across Alzheimer's Disease (AD) behavioural measures, e.g. MMSE, ACE etc. scores, and obtained predictions at non-observed MMSE/ACE values. The overall model confirmed the known reduction in the spatial extent of activity in response to reading versus false-font stimulation. The predictive uncertainty indicated the worsening confidence intervals at behavioural scores distance from those used for GP training. Thus, the model indicated the type of patient (what behavioural score) that would need to included in the training data to improve models predictions.

A lot of effort has been invested into characterizing the convergence rates of gradient based algorithms for non-linear convex optimization. Recently, motivated by large datasets and problems in machine learning, the interest has shifted towards distributed optimization. In this work we present a distributed algorithm for strongly convex constrained optimization. Each node in a network of n computers converges to the optimum of a strongly convex, L-Lipchitz continuous, separable objective at a rate O(log (sqrt(n) T) / T) where T is the number of iterations. This rate is achieved in the online setting where the data is revealed one at a time to the nodes, and in the batch setting where each node has access to its full local dataset from the start. The same convergence rate is achieved in expectation when the subgradients used at each node are corrupted with additive zero-mean noise.

Many models of interest in the natural and social sciences have no closed-form likelihood function, which means that they cannot be treated using the usual techniques of statistical inference. In the case where such models can be efficiently simulated, Bayesian inference is still possible thanks to the Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) algorithm. Although many refinements have been suggested, ABC inference is still far from routine. ABC is often excruciatingly slow due to very low acceptance rates. In addition, ABC requires introducing a vector of "summary statistics", the choice of which is relatively arbitrary, and often require some trial and error, making the whole process quite laborious for the user. We introduce in this work the EP-ABC algorithm, which is an adaptation to the likelihood-free context of the variational approximation algorithm known as Expectation Propagation (Minka, 2001). The main advantage of EP-ABC is that it is faster by a few orders of magnitude than standard algorithms, while producing an overall approximation error which is typically negligible. A second advantage of EP-ABC is that it replaces the usual global ABC constraint on the vector of summary statistics computed on the whole dataset, by n local constraints of the form that apply separately to each data-point. As a consequence, it is often possible to do away with summary statistics entirely. In that case, EP-ABC approximates directly the evidence (marginal likelihood) of the model. Comparisons are performed in three real-world applications which are typical of likelihood-free inference, including one application in neuroscience which is novel, and possibly too challenging for standard ABC techniques.

We develop and analyze stochastic optimization algorithms for problems in which the expected loss is strongly convex, and the optimum is (approximately) sparse. Previous approaches are able to exploit only one of these two structures, yielding an $\order(\pdim/T)$ convergence rate for strongly convex objectives in $\pdim$ dimensions, and an $\order(\sqrt{(\spindex \log \pdim)/T})$ convergence rate when the optimum is $\spindex$-sparse. Our algorithm is based on successively solving a series of $\ell_1$-regularized optimization problems using Nesterov's dual averaging algorithm. We establish that the error of our solution after $T$ iterations is at most $\order((\spindex \log\pdim)/T)$, with natural extensions to approximate sparsity. Our results apply to locally Lipschitz losses including the logistic, exponential, hinge and least-squares losses. By recourse to statistical minimax results, we show that our convergence rates are optimal up to multiplicative constant factors. The effectiveness of our approach is also confirmed in numerical simulations, in which we compare to several baselines on a least-squares regression problem.

We consider probabilistic multinomial probit classification using Gaussian process (GP) priors. The challenges with the multiclass GP classification are the integration over the non-Gaussian posterior distribution, and the increase of the number of unknown latent variables as the number of target classes grows. Expectation propagation (EP) has proven to be a very accurate method for approximate inference but the existing EP approaches for the multinomial probit GP classification rely on numerical quadratures or independence assumptions between the latent values from different classes to facilitate the computations. In this paper, we propose a novel nested EP approach which does not require numerical quadratures, and approximates accurately all between-class posterior dependencies of the latent values, but still scales linearly in the number of classes. The predictive accuracy of the nested EP approach is compared to Laplace, variational Bayes, and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approximations with various benchmark data sets. In the experiments nested EP was the most consistent method with respect to MCMC sampling, but the differences between the compared methods were small if only the classification accuracy is concerned.

Traditional network diagnosis methods of Client-Terminal Device (CTD) problems tend to be laborintensive, time consuming, and contribute to increased customer dissatisfaction. In this paper, we propose an automated solution for rapidly diagnose the root causes of network performance issues in CTD. Based on a new intelligent inference technique, we create the Intelligent Automated Client Diagnostic (IACD) system, which only relies on collection of Transmission Control Protocol (TCP) packet traces. Using soft-margin Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifiers, the system (i) distinguishes link problems from client problems and (ii) identifies characteristics unique to the specific fault to report the root cause. The modular design of the system enables support for new access link and fault types. Experimental evaluation demonstrated the capability of the IACD system to distinguish between faulty and healthy links and to diagnose the client faults with 98% accuracy. The system can perform fault diagnosis independent of the user's specific TCP implementation, enabling diagnosis of diverse range of client devices

This paper proposes a grey interval relation TOPSIS method for the decision making in which all of the attribute weights and attribute values are given by the interval grey numbers. In this paper, all of the subjective and objective weights are obtained by interval grey number and decision-making is based on four methods such as the relative approach degree of grey TOPSIS, the relative approach degree of grey incidence and the relative approach degree method using the maximum entropy estimation using 2-dimensional Euclidean distance. A multiple attribute decision-making example for evaluation of artistic talent of Kayagum (stringed Korean harp) players is given to show practicability of the proposed approach.

In a companion paper, Murtagh (2012), we discussed how Matte Blanco's work linked the unrepressed unconscious (in the human) to symmetric logic and thought processes. We showed how ultrametric topology provides a most useful representational and computational framework for this. Now we look at the extent to which we can find ultrametricity in text. We use coherent and meaningful collections of nearly 1000 texts to show how we can measure inherent ultrametricity. On the basis of our findings we hypothesize that inherent ultrametricty is a basis for further exploring unconscious thought processes.

We mathematically model Ignacio Matte Blanco's principles of symmetric and asymmetric being through use of an ultrametric topology. We use for this the highly regarded 1975 book of this Chilean psychiatrist and pyschoanalyst (born 1908, died 1995). Such an ultrametric model corresponds to hierarchical clustering in the empirical data, e.g. text. We show how an ultrametric topology can be used as a mathematical model for the structure of the logic that reflects or expresses Matte Blanco's symmetric being, and hence of the reasoning and thought processes involved in conscious reasoning or in reasoning that is lacking, perhaps entirely, in consciousness or awareness of itself. In a companion paper we study how symmetric (in the sense of Matte Blanco's) reasoning can be demarcated in a context of symmetric and asymmetric reasoning provided by narrative text.

Inferring the functional specificity of brain regions from functional Magnetic Resonance Images (fMRI) data is a challenging statistical problem. While the General Linear Model (GLM) remains the standard approach for brain mapping, supervised learning techniques (a.k.a.} decoding) have proven to be useful to capture multivariate statistical effects distributed across voxels and brain regions. Up to now, much effort has been made to improve decoding by incorporating prior knowledge in the form of a particular regularization term. In this paper we demonstrate that further improvement can be made by accounting for non-linearities using a ranking approach rather than the commonly used least-square regression. Through simulation, we compare the recovery properties of our approach to linear models commonly used in fMRI based decoding. We demonstrate the superiority of ranking with a real fMRI dataset.